Quad-Fiji: Supply Chains, Security, and a Regional Voice
The Quad-Fiji agreement may indicate the Quad becoming more operational in the Indo-Pacific
Beyond the Frontline: Russian Retaliation Against Ukrainian Drone Strikes
Russia's missile barrage over the weekend could be interpreted as force projection following setbacks on the front line.
Beyond the Frontline: Ukraine’s Infrastructure Disruption Strategy
Ukraine’s ability to influence frontline outcomes through systems and supply disruption indicates the war is becoming a battle of attrition.
Managed Competition: The U.S.-China Stabilisation Phase
The U.S.-China summit ended without any major outcomes. Instead, the meeting was an assessment of positions on a range of topics, with attempts at stabilisation.
Financial Chokepoint: Economic Fury Targeting Evasion Systems
The U.S. is now targeting Chinese refineries and financial networks associated with the Iranian oil trade.
Monetised Maritime Chokepoints: How Access is Becoming a Revenue Stream
Chokepoints are becoming revenue streams where access is shaped by demand.
Controlling the Flow: The U.S. Maritime Enforcement Strategy
The specific targeting of vessels signals how the U.S. aims to control maritime space beyond the blockade.
Buffer Zone Under Pressure: UNIFIL Exposed in Southern Lebanon
The recent deaths of UN forces along the Israel-Lebanon border indicate the increasing exposure of neutral forces to conflict. T
Conditional Access: How Navigation Is Being shaped in the South China Sea
The South China Sea continues to be a disputed maritime domain where states are shaping territorial influence through access.
Japan’s Policy Shift: From Defensive to Counterstrike
Japan’s defence budget increase reflects a transition from passive military policy to a counterstrike capability.
Pacific Alignment Under Pressure: The U.S., New Zealand, the Cook Islands, and China.
The New Zealand–Cook Islands defence partnership coincides with high-level U.S. engagement.
Sanctions and Seizures: Energy Flows and Europe’s Maritime Dilemma
Tension is increasing between sanctions, enforcement, and freedom of navigation in Europe.
Hormuz ceasefire: Who controls the conditions in the Strait?
The Strait of Hormuz could be entering a temporary post-disruption phase where terms, not force, control transit.
Europe’s Hormuz Dilemma: Balancing Strategic Risks
Europe’s response to Hormuz reflects a strategic dilemma shaped by competing risks.
Access Denied: Maritime Competition and Chokepoint Strategy
Chokepoint control is not through stopping movement but by shaping risk through uncertainty, increased costs, and selective access.
Naval Pivot: Is the U.S. Preparing to Secure Hormuz?
The scheduled arrival of two amphibious attack ships indicates planned specialised operations.
Strategic Denial: How Hormuz Is Becoming a Weaponised Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a disruption point; it is a tool of coercive economic leverage.
Indonesia’s Evolving Foreign Policy
Indonesia has long maintained an independent foreign policy, but recent decisions suggest this may be evolving under strategic pressure.
Sanctioned Oil Strategy: Exposing China’s Energy Vulnerability
China’s energy supply is under pressure following the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Signs of Naval Escorts Forming
The conflict is shifting towards a maritime denial phase where competition to control the Strait will be contested.