Pacific Alignment Under Pressure: The U.S., New Zealand, the Cook Islands, and China.
The New Zealand–Cook Islands defence partnership coincides with high-level U.S. engagement.
Sanctions and Seizures: Energy Flows and Europe’s Maritime Dilemma
Tension is increasing between sanctions, enforcement, and freedom of navigation in Europe.
Hormuz ceasefire: Who controls the conditions in the Strait?
The Strait of Hormuz could be entering a temporary post-disruption phase where terms, not force, control transit.
Europe’s Hormuz Dilemma: Balancing Strategic Risks
Europe’s response to Hormuz reflects a strategic dilemma shaped by competing risks.
Access Denied: Maritime Competition and Chokepoint Strategy
Chokepoint control is not through stopping movement but by shaping risk through uncertainty, increased costs, and selective access.
Naval Pivot: Is the U.S. Preparing to Secure Hormuz?
The scheduled arrival of two amphibious attack ships indicates planned specialised operations.
Strategic Denial: How Hormuz Is Becoming a Weaponised Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a disruption point; it is a tool of coercive economic leverage.
Indonesia’s Evolving Foreign Policy
Indonesia has long maintained an independent foreign policy, but recent decisions suggest this may be evolving under strategic pressure.
Sanctioned Oil Strategy: Exposing China’s Energy Vulnerability
China’s energy supply is under pressure following the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
Signs of Naval Escorts Forming
The conflict is shifting towards a maritime denial phase where competition to control the Strait will be contested.
The Pacific Pivot: U.S.–China and the Shadow Fleet Connection
New Zealand may need to balance Chinese economic ties and regional security interests with the U.S.
Early Warning: Turkey and NATO’s Strategic Dilemma
Grey-zone strategy has some benefits for Iran without entering into direct conflict with Turkey or NATO.
Lebanon’s Dilemma: Remove Hezbollah and risk civil war
The strategic window may offer Israel and the Lebanese government a convergence of interests to reduce Hezbollah as an external and internal threat.
Strategic Window: Hezbollah, Israel, and Domestic Pressure
The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran may have presented Israel with an opportunity to further diminish Hezbollah’s military capacity along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Iran—China—Russia Nexus: A U.S. Strategic Signal
The strikes on Iranian targets through the lens of great-power competition.
2025 U.S. National Security Strategy: A Pivot and Regional Reset
The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) marks a structural departure from the post-Cold War American universalist grand strategy.