GL IN BRIEF | 11 July
Africa
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—continues to strengthen ties with Moscow. After cutting ties with France and Western partners, the AES is seeking to deepen military cooperation with Russia, including with Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps.
The conflict between the Malian military and Islamist insurgents continues. The military claims to have broken a blockade around an army base in northern Mali. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) claims Malian forces were supported by troops from Niger and Burkina Faso.
Mali and Algeria restored diplomatic ties after a year of diplomatic tensions following the downing of a Malian drone in Algerian airspace. The AES had withdrawn its ambassadors alongside Mali. Military and civilian airspace is reportedly being reopened, and ambassadors are expected to return to their posts.
The World Bank has confirmed its partnership with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with USD 8 billion allocated for development projects.
Watch
Deepening diplomatic and military ties between AES states, alongside closer collaboration with Moscow.
Critical mineral agreements with the DRC following Belgium's release of geological archives.
Anti-immigration protests escalating in South Africa.
Americas
The “Shield of Americas," a security initiative established by the Trump administration, released a joint statement signed by the U.S., Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago. The statement expressed concern over attempts to cast doubts on the Colombian electoral process.
The U.S. continues to develop its policy towards Latin America through the “Donroe Doctrine." The Pentagon outlined a strategy focused on combating narcotics trafficking and illegal migration, arguing that the U.S. defence strategy is linked to the everyday security concerns of citizens.
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has asked the U.S. to delay proposed tariffs until after Brazil’s October election. He argued that the tariffs would benefit the current government, while critics have attributed the tariffs to Senator Bolsonaro’s relationship with the Trump administration.
Watch
Expansion of U.S. security agreements in Latin America.
U.S. trade measures and regional responses.
Chinese infrastructure investments or development projects.
Asia Pacific
Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan have prompted companies to warn of increasing supply chain risks. Beijing continues to restrict exports following tensions over Taiwan. Japan is seeking alternative supplies through partnerships with the U.S. while also facing rising aluminium prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The Philippines has rejected claims by Chinese academics that the Batanes Islands belong to China. Located 200 km from Taiwan, Chinese scholars claim the islands are an extension of Taiwan.
The Commander of U.S.-Indo-Pacific Command has requested USD 122 billion to strengthen deterrence across the region against Chinese military expansion, risks to Taiwan, and cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
Watch
Continued economic coercion through critical minerals.
Chinese maritime activity around the east of Taiwan and the First Island Chain.
Regional deterrence measures and defence investment.
Europe
Leaders at the NATO Summit reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 collective defence and increased defence spending. NATO members also announced USD 70 billion in additional military support for Ukraine, while declaring that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and reaffirming the importance of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ukraine is expected to receive a licence to produce its own Patriot missile interceptors domestically. The announcement by President Trump at the NATO Summit comes as Ukraine faces pressure on its air defence stockpiles.
Russian missile and drone strikes hit apartment buildings in Kyiv ahead of the NATO Summit, killing at least 24 and wounding more than 100 people.
Watch
Expansion and integration of NATO defence initiatives.
Domestic production of Patriot missile interceptors in Ukraine.
Russian long-range strikes on key Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine strikes on Russian military and industrial targets.
Middle East
President Trump advised that he expects Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon after discussions with Prime Minister Netanyahu. The comments follow a trilateral agreement between the U.S., Lebanon, and Israel in late June.
The Israel-Lebanon agreement continues to face internal challenges. Israel has yet to complete its withdrawal, while tensions between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah remains. Efforts to disarm the terrorist group could contribute to domestic political divisions and violence.
Maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. Commercial shipping data indicates vessels continue to transit the waterway; however, questions over transit routes and freedom of navigation persist.
Watch
Israeli troop movements in southern Lebanon.
Interactions between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.
Commercial shipping data through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating transit volumes and route selection.
Iranian use of projectiles against commercial vessels as strategic leverage, and the U.S. response.
GL IN BRIEF | 5 July 2026
Africa
Belgium's geological archives containing surveys of mineral deposits in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be made available to the DRC government. The DRC is estimated to hold approximately USD 24 trillion in mineral resources, including copper, cobalt, lithium, gold, and diamonds. U.S. company KoBold Metals has entered a strategic partnership with the DRC.
South African anti-immigration protests led to the deployment of 3,400 troops to maintain public order. The unrest may test state capacity to respond to internal security challenges.
Fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to create a humanitarian crisis. RSF drone attacks have targeted infrastructure in El Obeid. An Amnesty International report accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, while an independent UN report described the “hallmarks of genocide.”
Watch
Western expansion in critical mineral and infrastructure investments in the DRC.
Chinese diplomatic responses referencing the existing 2007 minerals-for-infrastructure deal with the DRC and Chinese investment in new mining agreements.
Escalation in anti-immigration protests and clashes with government security forces in South Africa.
International efforts to coordinate humanitarian assistance and civilian corridors for safe passage in Sudan.
Americas
The U.S. administration's temporary trade tariffs are set to expire on 24 July. New Section 301 tariffs may be introduced before existing measures expire. The tariffs form part of broader efforts to reshape global supply chains and strengthen domestic manufacturing.
Keiko Fujimori was declared the winner of Peru’s presidential election by a slight margin. The result continues Latin America’s shift towards centre-right governments in response to economic and security challenges.
A Peruvian court has ruled that the government should oversee the Chinese state-operated port of Chancay. The port operates as a strategic shipping hub between Asia and Latin America. The decision may increase government oversight of Chinese-operated infrastructure as U.S.-China competition increases in the region.
The Mercosur trade bloc has entered into economic negotiations with Japan. A trade agreement would encompass 280 million people and a combined GDP of USD 3 trillion. Negotiations are likely to focus on critical minerals, technology, and the agricultural sector.
Watch
Implementation of new Section 301 tariffs and international and domestic responses.
Cabinet appointments and economic policy priorities of the new Peruvian government.
Legal, security, and anti-crime legislation that could impact Chinese influence along with U.S. investment in regional infrastructure.
Chinese diplomatic statements on Peruvian government oversight over the Port of Chancay.
Negotiation developments in the Mercosur-Japan trade agreement, particularly on critical minerals and agriculture.
Asia Pacific
China has launched new Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, describing them as “law enforcement patrols.” Taiwan has characterised the operations as lawfare, calling them an "illegal expansion of power in violation of international law and a disruption of regional stability."
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand. The visit will be part of wider engagement by India in the Asia-Pacific. India has agreed to supply arms to Indonesia, is one of Australia’s largest trading partners, and recently signed a trade agreement with New Zealand.
Global financial firms are adopting a more cautious approach towards China and India. A survey by the Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA) and consultancy firm KPMG found competition among Asian financial centres has increased. Singapore remains the region’s leading financial hub, while South Korea has increased its position.
Watch
Increased Chinese coast guard incursions east of Taiwan and international responses.
Expanded maritime coordination between Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
Defence and trade statements during Prime Minister Modi’s regional visit.
Foreign investment trends into Asia and financial market reactions.
Europe
NATO members have largely replaced U.S. reductions in the alliance’s defence plans following increased defence budgets by member states. One remaining gap is reported to be strategic bombers.
The European Commission has announced five cross-border defence projects eligible for EU funding. The programme includes drone and counter-drone capabilities, integrated maritime defence, and projects aimed at improving coordination and addressing capability gaps.
Reports that China has trained Russian soldiers have led Germany to request talks with the Chinese ambassador. China has labelled the reports as unfounded.
Reports have emerged of the U.S. warning Poland over a possible limited Russian incursion. Some reports indicated potential hybrid provocation, drone or missile strikes, or a small incursion into Polish territory under the guise of a GPS malfunction. The reports have suggested Russia may be aiming to test NATO resolve.
Watch
Further information on Russian and Chinese military training links.
Hybrid activity involving NATO’s Eastern Flank.
Russian military activity in Kaliningrad or Belarus.
NATO military posturing and statements towards Russia.
Middle East
The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Maritime data indicates commercial traffic is increasing, with vessels using two transit routes, one closer to Oman and the other to Iran. Recent projectile incidents targeting vessels prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iranian sites.
The Israeli defence minister stated that Israeli forces will remain in designated security zones in Syria and Lebanon, with no withdrawal currently planned.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that peace in the region will require broader regional support and that Israel should not be allowed to “dynamite” the U.S.-Iran peace agreement.
Turkey plans to increase cooperation with Pakistan in critical minerals, technology, and defence, alongside a bilateral trade target of USD 5 billion.
OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The decision follows a gradual increase in commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Watch
Maritime shipping data indicating commercial transit volumes and routing in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. statements regarding Israel’s presence in designated security zones.
Iranian responses to increased oil production and any further attempts to influence commercial shipping through limited projectile attacks.
GL IN BRIEF | 26 JUNE 2026
Africa
Niger has submitted a request to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, alongside Mali and Burkina Faso.
The decision follows Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso leaving the Economic Community of West African States and forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The group is forging closer military, economic, and foreign policy ties, cutting Western military ties, and allowing Russian mercenaries onto its territory.
The JNIM terror group’s attack on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey, Niger, is the second attack on the airport this year. The jihadist group may be shifting strategy to expand operations to urban areas to target critical infrastructure.
The International Monetary Fund has committed to supporting sub-Saharan Africa due to difficulties caused by the Middle East conflict. The IMF has already accelerated and augmented funding to some nations.
Watch
The ICC, AU, and ECOWAS responses to Niger's request to leave the ICC.
Further political, economic, and military integration within AES members and cooperation with Russia.
JNIM’s targeting of Chinese mine workers through kidnapping and extortion.
CCP diplomatic or security responses to targeting of Chinese mine workers
Americas
The U.S. continues diversifying critical mineral supply chains following reports of an agreement with Kenya.
NATO plans to increase security in the Arctic and High North. Around 30,000 troops participated in Exercise Arctic Sentry, simulating the defence of NATO’s northern flank against an eastern threat.
Venezuela is managing two major earthquakes that forced the closure of the Caracas airport. Early assessments project the death toll to exceed 10,000.
Watch
G7 and the U.S. seeking critical mineral agreements with emerging economies.
Russian diplomatic statements or signalling in response to NATO defence increases and Arctic drills
Asia Pacific
The Chinese Communist Party has passed the Ethnic Unity Law, which comes into effect on 1 July. A clause in the law allows for individuals or groups to be held accountable for undermining "ethnic unity and progress or inciting ethnic separatism." Critics argue the law could provide a legal basis to pursue individuals abroad.
Western governments, including the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany, have raised concerns over Chinese Coast Guard activity east of Taiwan.
Taiwan has conducted a simulation to counter a potential CCP maritime blockade. The simulation included a coast guard law enforcement response and military drills.
North Korea commissioned its largest warship as part of naval capabilities, with reports it is capable of carrying nuclear weapons. A second destroyer is also planned with no date announced.
Watch
Chinese coast guard grey-zone activity around Taiwan and the Philippines.
Diplomatic responses to the CCP’s Ethnic Unity Law.
Future North Korean naval expansion and missile integration.
Europe
NATO allies have increased defence spending substantially, demonstrating greater burden sharing. Rutte stated Europe and Canada have committed an additional US$1.2 trillion in defence spending since Trump first took office.
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia targeting energy and military infrastructure. The Moscow oil refinery was hit, with reports indicating it could take six months to repair.
Ukrainian strikes have reportedly contributed to oil product shortages, price increases, and long queues in Russia.
The EU announced at the Ukraine Recovery Conference the first disbursement of €3.2 billion under the Ukraine Support Loan. A further €1.1 billion was allocated under the Ukraine Investment Framework to support recovery, reconstruction, and investment.
Watch
Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy, military infrastructure, and targets in Crimea.
Russia's conventional and drone strikes in response to Ukrainian long-range attacks.
Russian diplomatic statements on NATO defence increase.
NATO summit announcements on defence industry contracts, spending, and military technological investments.
Middle East
Transits through the Strait of Hormuz increased but remain disrupted, with the IRGC reportedly issuing conditions and routing instructions to commercial vessels. Reports indicate a projectile struck a vessel, prompting the International Maritime Organization to suspend the planned evacuation of 11,000 seafarers.
Israel remains in Lebanon, with a senior official stating there would be no withdrawal from the buffer zone. The reports contrast with earlier statements by the U.S. State Department that Israel had withdrawn from part of its buffer zone.
Yemen’s Houthis have stated that they will target any Israeli presence in the breakaway region of Somaliland should military cooperation between Israel and Somaliland proceed.
Watch
Continued disruption or conditional access in the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli troop movements and the status of Israel’s buffer zone inside Lebanese territory.
Houthi military activity in the Red Sea or on Israeli-linked assets.
GL IN BRIEF | 20 JUNE 2026
Africa
The U.S. is reportedly close to signing a critical mineral agreement with Kenya to process minerals domestically.
The move is a continuation of U.S. efforts to secure critical minerals globally, signalling competition for African resources may increase between Western countries and China.
Somaliland and Israel are forging closer ties, with Israel set to train police and military, with potential economic deals tabled.
Somaliland’s geographical location is of strategic importance opposite Yemen and near the Red Sea maritime route.
Watch
Somali and Yemeni responses to potential Israel-Somaliland cooperation
Developments in security, economic, and industrial agreements between Israel and Somaliland.
Asia Pacific
The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee approved a proposal to include Taiwan and the Philippines under the First Island Security Cooperation Initiative (FISCI). The defence plan authorised $1.5 billion in assistance for Taiwan and the Philippines.
The Philippines appears to be an important U.S. strategic partner with the inclusion in the FISCI funding assistance, which follows $2.5 billion of U.S. funds in December 2025.
The U.S. approved a war reserve stockpile program for Taiwan, which allows military supplies to be made available.
Taiwan continues to face delays for delivery of the previously approved U.S. arms sale. The issue may provide insights into the U.S. administration's stance towards Taiwan after the U.S.-China state visit.
Watch
Chinese Communist Party statements on the FISCI referencing international law, territorial sovereignty, and military build-up.
Developments in the U.S.-Taiwan arms deliveries.
Europe
Ukraine continues to conduct strikes on Russian infrastructure linked to sustaining its military operations, including energy and production facilities.
President Zelenskiy is strengthening political partnerships, meeting with world leaders recently at the G7 summit along with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU leaders.
The United Kingdom allocated £210 million, and the Netherlands announced a €500 million euro defence package for Ukraine.
The EU, UK, and Canada expanded sanctions on shadow fleet vessels and service providers, financial institutions, and military technology, indicating efforts to target systems that support Russia's military capabilities.
Watch
Russia’s response to sanctions with more armed escorts,
Additional Russian conventional strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, military, and civilian targets following recent Ukrainian strikes.
Middle East
The IRGC announced the closure of the strait of Hormuz despite agreed-upon negotiations with the U.S. The reason for the closure has been linked to ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
Vice-President Vance is flying to Switzerland to meet with Iranian negotiators for technical discussions.
Both Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of breaking the ceasefire. Israeli leadership reportedly ordered a ceasefire in Lebanon, but forces will remain in position with no withdrawal signalled.
Watch
Continued Iranian disruption of the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran seeks to monetise and leverage access during negotiations.
U.S.-Iran negotiations and the conditions referencing the conflict in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz.
The Israeli response to the outcome of negotiations and U.S. stipulations regarding the conflict with Hezbollah.
GL IN BRIEF | 17 APRIL 2026
Middle East
The Strait of Hormuz remains a controlled disruption zone. Iran continues to shape access through risk and ambiguity.
The U.S. has created a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains under the threshold of conflict.
A fragile ceasefire continues to hold, with military posturing and political signaling shaping Hormuz.
Asia Pacific
China is shaping access to the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea through militia vessels and coastguard incursions.
Satellite imagery shows Chinese naval vessels positioned at the entrance to the Shoal in an obstruction strategy.
The Philippines has accused Chinese fishermen of poisoning waters around the Spratly Islands. The Philippine Navy reported confiscating cyanide from Chinese fishing boats.
Europe
Britain and France push for security discussions on Hormuz, with the French defence minister indicating Europe has capacity to assist with naval escorts and mine-clearing.
Russia is targeting Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure, indicating an economic degradation strategy.
Watch
Maritime flows in the Strait of Hormuz and how the U.S. responds to states attempting transit.
Chinese grey-zone maritime activities and diplomatic pressure on the Philippines around the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.
GL IN BRIEF | 28 March 2026
Iran continues its disruption strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, enabling selective access and limited transit.
The disruption strategy applies economic pressure while staying below the direct conflict threshold.
The transit reportedly followed a route between Larak and Qeshm Island, with vessels passing close to missile bases and a surveillance checkpoint.
The Iranian selective corridor poses a risk to oil tankers due to the water depth of under 25 m, suggesting the route may not relieve oil supply challenges.
The arrival of two amphibious assault ships carrying roughly 5,000 Marines suggests a strategic shift in posture from immediate escort deployments to amphibious operations.
Watch
Airstrikes on strategic terrain such as Kharg, Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb, and the coast of Hormuz.
The arrival of the 82nd Airborne in the Gulf.