GL IN BRIEF | 16 OCTOBER

KEY JUDGEMENTS

• Security cooperation and regional threats: Security tensions in Africa, Europe and the Middle East expose vulnerabilities in existing security arrangements and challenge alliance groupings. Despite challenges, states continue to rely on external security partners and mechanisms for regional security. 

• Economic security and diversification: The U.S. and EU continue to seek greater access to critical minerals to strengthen supply chains, while African states are also seeking to improve supporting mining infrastructure and to leverage critical minerals in negotiations. U.S. trade policy is causing tensions and ongoing diversification efforts by states.

• Energy security: Energy exporters and maritime logistics companies continue to adapt and demonstrate resilience amid ongoing Middle East disruption. While these efforts allow for the continuation of energy transport, export routes remain exposed to projectile attacks.

AFRICA

• Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea continue as Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of an invasion into Tigray, which Eritrea denies. The tensions risks wider interstate escalation, which may be exacerbated by Ethiopia’s concerns about access to the Red Sea.

•  Zambia seeks to strengthen its critical mineral sector through negotiations with the U.S. Foreign investment will also strengthen electricity connections for mining between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, potentially saving USD 1 billion annually. Both developments demonstrate the relationship between mineral access and energy security.

• Dangote’s USD 1.6 billion refinery stock market debut to attract foreign investment has been constrained by fragmented capital markets and regulations, highlighting the wider challenge for African industrial development.

STRATEGIC INDICATORS

Ethiopia–Eritrea Escalation Risk 

▲ Increasing

Zambia Strengthening Critical Mineral Sector 

▲ Increasing

Dangote Initial Public Offering

 ↔ Mixed

WHAT TO WATCH

• UN Security Council response to Eritrea’s request for deterrent measures against Ethiopia, alongside escalation between both sides.

• Progress in Zambia–U.S. negotiations on a critical minerals agreement and statements by the U.S. on the decoupling with associated health funding.

• Stock market data indicating foreign investment in the Dangote refinery.

AMERICAS

• U.S.–Mexico tariff discussions have halted after opposition from the U.S. Commerce Secretary over disagreements on American levies on vehicles and metals. Tariffs could impact North American manufacturing and efforts to strengthen regional supply chains.

• Canada's diversification continues with a trade agreement with India due to be concluded at the end of the year, while also strengthening economic cooperation with the EU. The developments reflect Canadian attempts to reduce exposure to U.S. trade measures.

• Swiss-based commodity trading company Mercuria has sourced and delivered 12,000 tonnes of copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo as part of U.S. efforts on stockpiling critical minerals. Project Vault highlights U.S. steps towards strengthening industrial supply chains.

STRATEGIC INDICATORS

U.S.–Mexico Trade Relations

▼ Decreasing

Canada’s Diversification Strategy

▲ Increasing

U.S. Project Vault Critical Minerals Strategy

▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress on U.S.–Mexico trade negotiations, particularly in the metals sector and automotive industries. 

• Canada–India signing a trade agreement alongside further Canadian efforts to diversify economic and security partnerships.

• Further U.S. efforts to stockpile critical minerals as part of Project Vault, indicating progress towards reduced dependence on foreign suppliers and strengthening supply chains.

ASIA PACIFIC

• China–Laos increase air force cooperation with a joint airfield in Ban Keun. The airfield is capable of accommodating military aircraft, with the location of strategic importance providing access to disputed areas of the South China Sea.

• Australia’s Pacific investment will see autonomous maritime surveillance vessels provided to Fiji to monitor transnational crime and strengthen maritime security. Australia continues to deepen security cooperation across the Pacific and demonstrates how autonomous systems are becoming part of regional security. 

• China is proposing to protect its technology sector by adding 40 technologies, including AI, biotechnology and solar technology to its export-control list. The proposed controls could give China greater oversight of strategically important technology, with export restrictions increasingly being used by China, such as with critical minerals.

STRATEGIC INDICATORS

China–Laos Air Force Cooperation

▲ Increasing

Australia’s Pacific Operationalisation

▲ Increasing

Chinese Export Restrictions

► Stable

WHAT TO WATCH

• Indications of China–Laos joint military air force exercises, drills, or operations.

• Deployment and operational use of Australian-provided autonomous surveillance vessels and diplomatic responses from regional competitors.

• Progress on China’s proposed technology export restrictions and potential impacts on supply chains alongside diplomatic responses towards restrictions.

EUROPE

• Drone attacks in the Black Sea have led to casualties and greater maritime cooperation between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. The Black Sea is increasingly becoming a conflict theatre in the Ukraine war while also exposing NATO members' maritime vulnerabilities. This raises questions about the alliance’s ability to provide maritime security outside of territorial waters and in EEZs, where Article 5 does not provide automatic protection.

• Ukraine is seeking greater EU financial assistance for air defence systems and energy infrastructure before winter. The requests come amid growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv over attacks on Russian energy infrastructure while also testing EU financial support and ability to provide defence interceptors.

• The European Commission has selected 46 projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act, representing €21 billion in planned investment. The announcement comes amid increasing pressure from the critical minerals industry to fast-track projects and efforts to strengthen industrial supply chains while reducing dependence on China.

STRATEGIC INDICATORS

Black Sea Maritime Security

▼ Decreasing

Ukraine’s Demand on Security Partners

▲ Increasing

European Critical Mineral Diversification

▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• NATO announcements and resources to strengthen Black Sea maritime security.

• EU response to Ukraine’s request for financial and air defence systems alongside U.S. statements towards Ukraine.

• Progress on the EU’s 46 critical minerals projects in sectors that will reduce foreign dependence and strengthen supply chains.

MIDDLE EAST

• The Houthis continue to escalate with missile and drone attacks on the presidential palace in Aden, which the Houthis claimed was targeting a Saudi military operations headquarters. The attacks demonstrate the Houthis’ operational resilience under a counteroffensive, and the rebel group has yet to be deterred by Saudi air power or the MECCA agreement.

• Saudi Arabia plans to increase pipeline oil export capacity to up to 10 million barrels per day, including converting a domestic gas pipeline to carry crude. Saudi Arabia is continuing to seek alternative export routes, demonstrating the ability to adapt amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.

• Chokepoint disruption continues to impact marine fuel prices with a reported 70% increase since the start of the conflict in February. Wider impacts are extending beyond oil exports into maritime logistics with changes in commercial shipping patterns and bunkering locations.

STRATEGIC INDICATORS

Houthi Attacks Against Saudi Arabia 

▲ Increasing

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Route Resilience 

▲ Increasing

Chokepoint Fuel Price Pressure on Commercial Shipping 

▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• Houthi targeting of Saudi infrastructure and a potential Saudi response.

• Oil export volumes of Saudi Arabia’s pipelines.

• Maritime fuel prices and commercial behaviour in response to ongoing disruption.

GL IN BRIEF | 25 SEPTEMBER

KEY JUDGEMENTS

• Security cooperation: Regional security partnerships continue to emerge globally across Africa’s maritime environment, South Pacific defence cooperation, MECCA, and the Shield of the Americas. These partnerships increasingly consist of smaller groups in response to regional security threats.

• Economic security and diversification: International investment and partnership agreements are providing greater financial arrangements to access resources, reduce vulnerabilities across sectors, and strengthen strategic partnerships and supply chain resilience. 

• Energy security: Ongoing disruption in the Middle East continues to affect global energy supplies, with states seeking to construct energy infrastructure and identify alternative sources.

AFRICA

• Escalation in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region by rebel forces resulted in Tigrayan forces seizing three airports. Renewed conflict with government forces is placing greater pressure on regional stability and the durability of the 2022 peace agreement.

• 11 East African countries that are part of the Djibouti Code of Conduct have backed a proposal to establish a regional maritime task force to counter piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The proposal signals regional efforts to reduce dependence on external naval forces and greater regional maritime security coordination. 

• Rwanda’s Bank of Kigali has agreed to participate in China’s CIPS payment system. The decision will deepen economic ties with China through financial integration and reduce the number of financial institutions required in some transactions.

• The Dangote Group plans to construct a USD 660 million refined petroleum pipeline between Ethiopia and Djibouti, aiming to strengthen energy security by reducing logistics costs and delays. 

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

Ethiopian Internal Security Pressure 

Increasing ▲

East African Maritime-Security Coordination 

Increasing ▲

Rwanda–China Financial Integration 

 Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• Tigray rebels' territorial advances and Ethiopian government responses, alongside international efforts to uphold the peace agreement.

• Operationalisation of the proposed East African maritime task force in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

• International response to closer economic ties between China and Rwanda.

AMERICAS

• The Trump administration has agreed to mobilise up to USD 7 billion through the Export-Import Bank to support financing critical minerals development and processing, energy security, digital connectivity and advanced technologies. The agreement is a continuation of U.S. engagement in the Western Hemisphere and critical minerals diversification.

• Investment in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector is increasing with memorandums of understanding signed with Brazilian energy companies Eneva and WESCA to develop oil and gas opportunities. International interest in Venezuela continues after the removal of Maduro.

• The U.S.-led Shield of the Americas security alliance to counter narcotics trafficking continues to deepen in the Western Hemisphere with President Trump and 14 members meeting at the UN headquarters. The emergence of the security group signals continued U.S. engagement in the Western Hemisphere as part of the National Security Strategy.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

U.S.–Argentina Critical-Mineral and Energy Cooperation
Increasing ▲

International Investment in Venezuela’s Energy Sector
Increasing ▲

U.S.-Led Western Hemisphere Security Cooperation
Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• Further U.S.-Argentine agreements across key sectors that strengthen trade relations, particularly critical minerals.

• Increased investment in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector alongside export data.

• Brazil's and Mexico's diplomatic statements on the Shield of the Americas.

ASIA PACIFIC

• Defence ministers from Australia, Chile, Fiji, France, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Tonga met, alongside observers from Japan, the U.S. and the United Kingdom. Ministers expressed concern at recent ballistic missile tests in Pacific waters. The meeting suggests a strengthening of regional security responses and coordination.

• Indonesia continues to expand its defence cooperation and interoperability with joint exercises with France, including air force drills as part of Pegase 2026. Indonesia has formed several defence partnerships supporting its defence modernisation.

• India’s critical mineral producer Lohum is seeking to expand production by buying nickel mines in Indonesia and the Philippines. The investment aims to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies and strengthen supply chain resilience.

• Australia and New Zealand have signed a maritime agreement to strengthen naval cooperation through training, capabilities, warfighting, and international engagement. The agreement comes amid increasing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

South Pacific Defence Cooperation 

Increasing ▲

Indonesia–France Defence Cooperation

Increasing ▲

India Critical Mineral Investment 

Mixed ↔

WHAT TO WATCH

• Chinese diplomatic responses to regional concerns raised about ballistic missile tests.

• Progress on Indian critical minerals investment in Indonesia and the Philippines. 

• Australia and New Zealand navies’ operationalisation of their cooperation agreement.

EUROPE

• The European Defence Agency has indicated gaps in its 2030 readiness plan in air and missile defence, ground combat and naval forces, munitions and drones. The report highlights that while investment has increased, it has not translated into capacity building or increased interoperability between member states.

• The EU is proposing to support local industries under the Industrial Accelerator Act to reduce reliance on China, where producers face less stringent regulatory requirements and lower energy prices. The proposal may have wider impacts on countries outside the EU such as Canada and the UK regarding access to the EU market.

• Lithuania is planning to strengthen defences around critical infrastructure such as power grids amid increased concerns over Russian hybrid warfare. The decision follows political statements on EU preparedness for Russian threats, particularly on NATO’s eastern flank.

• Increased gas prices are leading European utilities towards coal. Disruption of liquefied natural gas shipments in the Middle East has made coal a more profitable alternative, while European efforts to seek alternatives to Russian gas supplies have exacerbated the energy challenge.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

European Defence Readiness Capabilities

Mixed ↔

Eastern Flank Critical Infrastructure Defence

Increasing ▲

European Energy-Supply Pressure

Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• Shifts in EU defence planning to address identified capability and interoperability gaps.

• Increased defence protection of critical infrastructure on NATO’s eastern flank.

• European gas storage levels, prices and supply availability.

MIDDLE EAST

• 80 countries have called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and condemned Iranian and Houthi attacks in a joint statement read at the United Nations. Continued disruption in Hormuz is increasing diplomatic pressure to restore freedom of navigation and trade and energy supplies.

• The MECCA partners’ military chiefs will meet to discuss support for Saudi Arabia after recent Houthi attacks. The meeting could increase the operationalisation of the defence pact while also increasing pressure on Iran and its allies.

• Ongoing conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz risk delaying liquefied natural gas expansion in Qatar due to start production in 2027. Qatar’s LNG capacity was reduced by 17% after earlier attacks on Ras Laffan, alongside attacks on two LNG trains which could take years to repair. Regional conflict is continuing to cause severe energy disruption.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

International Pressure on Iran to Open the Strait of Hormuz

Increasing ▲

MECCA Agreement Operationalisation 

Mixed ↔

LNG Production and Supplies

Decreasing ▼

WHAT TO WATCH

• Iranian diplomatic responses to the joint statement at the UN.

• Diplomatic and military responses by MECCA partners.

• LNG export and production volumes.

GL IN BRIEF | 18 SEPTEMBER

KEY JUDGEMENTS

• Energy: Simultaneous chokepoint pressure in the Gulf is continuing to increase global energy prices. Saudi Arabian export routes are having to adapt after strikes on energy infrastructure, alongside LNG constraints, fuel pressure, and high diesel margins all increasing global prices and impacting supply.

• Critical Minerals: States continue to seek to diversify critical mineral supply chains through agreement, partnerships, and legislation. The U.S. is forging partnerships in Africa, while South Korea has expanded into Central Asia. Europe is aiming to build supply chain resilience through regulatory efforts to reduce critical mineral dependence on China.

• Security: Security pressure across the Middle East, Africa and Europe has increased. The Houthis captured key territory along the coast of the Red Sea, while Saudi energy infrastructure was also damaged after strikes. M23 has made territorial gains in the Democratic Republic of Congo; meanwhile, aerial incursions into NATO and strikes close to NATO territory, alongside hybrid attacks, are drawing greater response from European members.

• Strategic Diversification: States in the Americas, Africa, and Asia continue to form partnerships to diversify economic, defence and resource relationships, increasingly relying on bilateral agreements.

AFRICA

• Clashes in the Democratic Republic of Congo between government forces and M23 have resulted in M23 making territorial gains and pushing westward. M23 territorial expansion has increased its control over economic activity, including transport routes, taxation of mineral production, businesses and cross-border trade. M23 continues to consolidate its control in eastern DRC.

• Rwanda will gain a 25% stake in a joint mining agreement for tungsten supported by the U.S.–Rwanda Framework for Shared Economic Prosperity, increasing Rwanda's value addition and U.S. supply-chain diversification. Tungsten is used in aerospace and defence equipment, with the announcement made on the same day the Elmet Group was awarded a USD 2 billion U.S. tungsten stockpile contract.

• Ghana has reduced fuel exports to Burkina Faso and Mali amid global energy disruptions. Tightened energy supplies may place additional pressure on the two Sahel states, both of which are engaged in ongoing conflicts with jihadist groups. In Mali, fuel supply routes have been targeted by jihadist groups as part of efforts to weaken the government and disrupt the economy.

• The DRC is implementing a strategic minerals partnership with the U.S. as part of economic diversification from China. The existing U.S.–DRC partnerships have already increased copper offtake as Washington continues to develop alternative critical mineral supply chains beyond China.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

M23 Territorial and Economic Gains

Increasing ▲

Rwanda Critical-Mineral Processing 

Increasing ▲

Sahel Fuel-Supply Pressure

Increasing ▲

U.S. Critical-Mineral Diversification 

Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• M23 efforts to generate revenue from its westward and southern territorial expansion.

• Progress on the U.S.–Rwanda critical minerals agreement.

• Energy supplies in Burkina Faso and Mali, and jihadist attacks on fuel supply routes intended to increase pressure on governments and economies.

• Progress on the U.S.–DRC critical minerals agreement.

AMERICAS

• Canada continues its economic and defence diversification with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's proposal to make Canada the first associate member. The proposed arrangement would deepen cooperation across sectors, including defence, energy, and critical minerals. Canada has also applied to join the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which would strengthen defence cooperation with European partners.

• Global energy pressure has led to surging international diesel prices, widening the gap between Brazilian domestic diesel prices and import costs. Restrictions and delays may have an impact on farmers as summer-crop planting commences.

• U.S.–Venezuela commercial involvement is increasing with an agreement between Continental Resources and state oil company PDVSA to develop the Ayacucho 2 block in the Orinoco Belt. The U.S. has also removed Venezuela from a list of countries that have failed to meet international drug obligations, which suggests increased counter-narcotics cooperation between the two countries.

• Chile’s state-owned copper mining company Codelco is facing delays with its restructuring plan, raising concerns about future output. Output is expected to be approximately 1.3 million metric tons over the next few years, below the previous target of 1.7 million metric tons. As one of the world's largest copper producers, the lower output may impact global supply chains, as copper is used in sectors such as electrification, defence industries and grids.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

Canadian Economic and Defence Diversification
Increasing ▲

Pressure on Brazil’s Energy Supplies
Increasing ▲

U.S.–Venezuelan Economic and Counter-Narcotics Cooperation
Increasing ▲

Chile’s Copper Output
Decreasing ▼

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress on Canada’s status as an associate member of the EU.

• Brazil’s diesel supplies and potential impacts on the agriculture sector.

• Increased U.S.–Venezuelan economic and counter-narcotics cooperation, particularly across oil exports and counter-narcotics efforts.

• Progress on Codelco’s restructuring and copper output. 

ASIA PACIFIC

• South Korean engagement in Central Asia produced 70 agreements and memoranda of understanding at the first summit with leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The agreements will deepen cooperation across energy, mining, infrastructure, technology and investment. South Korean diversification will aim to strengthen the critical minerals sector, including exploration, refining and processing, to develop a whole value chain.

• High prices and constrained supplies have led to a decline in Asian demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The ongoing conflict in the Gulf has resulted in Asian countries pivoting to other sources such as coal and nuclear to reduce LNG consumption. With LNG prices expected to remain elevated for some time, Asian markets may need to continue to rely on alternative energy sources.

• Asian diesel refining margins have increased from pre-conflict levels of USD 22 a barrel to over USD 87, with refiners exporting to markets in Africa. High refining margins have incentivised refiners to increase diesel output as margins hit record highs. The disruption in the Gulf continues to impact fuel markets in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

• U.S.–China strategic competition is expanding with several topics, particularly AI, due to be discussed at the upcoming Trump–Xi meeting. Concerns are over the use of AI in military and cyber attacks, alongside concerns over access to U.S. technology and the AI development race.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

South Korea–Central Asia Strategic Cooperation 

Increasing ▲

Asian LNG Demand 

Decreasing ▼

Asian Diesel Refining Margins

Increasing ▲

U.S.–China AI Competition 

Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress on South Korean–Central Asian partnerships.

• Pressure on and volumes of alternative sources of energy in Asia as the continent adapts to LNG supply constraints.

• Asian refining margins and supplies. 

• Diplomatic statements after the Trump–Xi meeting.

EUROPE

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen supported the establishment of a European Security Council in response to growing security threats. Leaders from the EU, UK, Norway, Ukraine and Canada are expected to be part of the council, alongside a proposed counter-hybrid playbook aimed at coordinating responses to increased hybrid incidents. The development of an additional security mechanism alongside NATO signals increasing European security coordination on the continent amid continued U.S. strategic ambiguity.

• Incursions and strikes close to NATO territory increased this week, with an Italian fighter shooting down a drone in Lithuanian airspace and a Ukrainian passenger train struck 2 km from the Polish border. NATO’s Eastern flank is facing increasing pressure through aerial incidents close to and within NATO territory, with some incidents requiring military responses.

• LNG prices could increase with Europe holding low stocks and Asian buyers facing greater competition. Price pressure could increase if Asian and European demand increases simultaneously over winter. Germany is incentivising gas storage as European gas inventories remain around 70%, their lowest level for this point of the year in over a decade. The supply pressure highlights the impacts of the disruption in Hormuz and global demand.

• The European Commission sent a Statement of Objections to Chinese mining company MMG as part of a merger review of MMG’s proposed acquisition of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel business. The objections highlight Europe's increasing concern over critical mineral supply chains and dependence on China, with the Commission willing to use merger-control mechanisms to protect strategic industries and supply chains. 

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

European and Allied Security Coordination 

Increasing ▲

NATO Eastern-Flank Airspace Pressure 

Increasing ▲

European Winter Energy-Supply Pressure 

Increasing ▲

European Critical Mineral Protection Measures

Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress on the development of the European Security Council and diplomatic statements on countering hybrid warfare.

• NATO and Eastern flank states' military posturing alongside diplomatic statements about enforcement over NATO airspace.

• LNG volumes, prices and storage as well as Germany’s efforts to incentivise storage increases.

• The outcome of the Statement of Objections, including responses from MMG.

MIDDLE EAST

• Saudi Arabia has reportedly requested diplomatic support from China to press Iran to rein in the Houthis. China’s heavy reliance on Gulf energy supply chains may be placing additional pressure on China to use its existing regional economic relationships to exert diplomatic influence.

• Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have exchanged strikes, with the Saudi Air Force carrying out airstrikes and the Houthis launching missile and drone strikes. The Houthis have demanded an end to the Saudi blockade and intervention in Yemen. Simultaneous pressure remains on Gulf chokepoints, increasing oil prices and creating uncertainty for shipping operators. With reports that the East–West Pipeline sustained more damage than first assessed, Saudi Arabia faces greater pressure on its remaining oil export routes.

• The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted with reports of three commercial vessel crossings on Wednesday. The U.S. announced further sanctions on an Iranian cryptocurrency exchange that the U.S. alleges has been processing payments for safe passage. Iran and the U.S. continue to compete over maritime access and enforcement in Hormuz.

• President Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders to discuss the conflict with Iran and a postwar strategy. The conflict is drawing multiple actors seeking to find diplomatic solutions to the ongoing Gulf maritime disruption, including the great powers China and the U.S.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

Chinese Gulf Diplomatic Engagement 

Increasing ▲

Saudi–Houthi Conflict and Saudi Oil Export-Route Pressure 

Increasing ▲

Strait of Hormuz Disruption 

Increasing ▲

U.S.–Gulf Diplomatic Engagement 

Increasing ▲

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress on Chinese diplomatic efforts to restrain the Houthis' attacks against Saudi Arabia.

• Escalation in Saudi–Houthi attacks with the Houthis continuing to target the Saudi oil sector.

• Transit volumes in Hormuz and the types of vessels making the crossing.

• Progress on the proposed talks between President Trump and Gulf leaders.

GL IN BRIEF | 11 SEPTEMBER

KEY JUDGEMENTS

• Maritime chokepoints continue to experience simultaneous pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb as conflict continues. The Panama Canal is having to manage the dual pressure of increased transits as shipping routes adjust to Gulf conflict and low water levels restricting daily transit numbers.

• States are seeking alternative sources for critical minerals processing and economic partners with Kenya pursuing domestic processing, Qatar sourcing U.S. LNG, EU–Greenland investment and mining projects, as well as South Korea–Central Asia engagement.

• Economic security and trade fragmentation are leading to the implementation of trade tools as strategic policy. U.S.–Canada trade tensions continue, while the EU looks to employ defensive trade tools to protect its chemicals sector, and European states consider trade restrictions against Israel over West Bank settlement expansion.

• Bilateral and smaller-group security partnerships are emerging as states respond to greater global uncertainty over security. India–Japan joint military exercises, Canada–Poland defence cooperation, the Philippines’ regional partnership building, and the Mecca Agreement indicate states are increasingly placing value on bilateral agreements.

AFRICA

• The U.S. has indicated that it will support Kenya in developing critical minerals processing as Kenya considers bids to develop Mrima Hill. African states are pushing for greater value addition through domestic processing rather than extraction alone and may be leveraging U.S.–China competition and wider global demand. 

• The Dangote group plans to commence construction of a 700,000 bpd oil refinery, aiming to have it completed by 2030. The project will strengthen regional fuel supply and energy security and is estimated to cost $15–16 billion. In a shift towards greater refining capacity on the continent, the Dangote group also plans to spend $14 billion to double its Nigerian refinery’s processing capacity as part of an expansion project.

• The second edition of the El Alamein International Air Show in Egypt featured Russian Su-57 aircraft carrying S-71M and S-71K drone-like missiles. Other countries such as Spain, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France and India also participated in aerial displays. The event highlights Egypt's emerging role as a defence hub and market connecting African, Middle Eastern, Chinese and Western suppliers.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

Indication that Kenya Will Develop Domestic Critical Minerals Processing Capacity
▲ Increasing

Dangote Group African Energy Expansion
▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress on consortium bids for access to Kenya’s Mrima Hill deposits and associated development of domestic processing capacity. 

• Dangote’s planned groundbreaking ceremony for the Kenyan oil refinery.

• Defence agreements, procurement and partnerships emerging from the El Alamein International Air Show, particularly among existing relationships.

AMERICAS

• U.S.–Canada trade tensions continue as the Trump administration bans some Canadian dairy products, motorcycles and alcoholic beverages in retaliation against Canadian tariffs, which took effect. The broadening of U.S.-imposed tariffs signals an escalation in the bilateral trade relationship.

• The U.S. continues to expand its engagement in the Western Hemisphere, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio seeking $45 million in additional funding to combat drug trafficking in Ecuador. Rubio’s request coincides with a three-nation tour of Latin America during which he reaffirmed expanded cooperation with Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, and Rubio will also visit Peru as part of efforts to combat narcotics trafficking and illegal immigration.

• The Panama Canal is experiencing declining water levels, forcing daily transits down from as high as 40 to around 32 and possibly to 27. The average auction cost for transit slots has increased from a pre-Iran conflict average of $66,150 to $478,750 and from $253,180 to $1.25 million. The combination of lower summer water levels and the conflict in Hormuz has caused additional pressure on the Panama Canal.

• Canada and Poland signed a renewed Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) that will deepen cooperation across the defence industry, capability development, military cooperation and training. The agreement also suggests that Canada is continuing to strengthen its role as a middle power, following Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos call for greater cooperation between middle powers. Canada is seeking agreements that strengthen its defence and economic security amid trade tensions and U.S. strategic ambiguity.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

U.S.–Canada Trade Tension
▲ Increasing

U.S. Security and Economic Engagement in the Western Hemisphere
▲ Increasing

Pressure on the Panama Canal
▲ Increasing

Canada Bilateral Engagement
▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• Canadian retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, alongside export and import data measuring impacts.

• U.S. approval of the $45 million for combating drug trafficking in Ecuador alongside agreements with Peru and Colombia.

• Marine traffic data indicating vessel transits through the Panama Canal along with auction pricing and water levels.

• Canada–Poland operationalisation of the DCA.

ASIA PACIFIC

• India and Japan continue to deepen security ties through the bilateral air exercise Veer Guardian, scheduled for the end of the month. The exercise, planned for 14 days, will include combat aircraft and undertake operational missions. Veer Guardian may signal the increasing operationalisation of strategic defence cooperation.

• China–Philippine diplomatic tensions emerged at the Seoul Defence Dialogue when Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr. discussed the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration. Minister Teodoro received a note on stage which allegedly came from China reiterating that Beijing did not recognise the ruling. Teodoro has expressed concern at reductions in U.S.–South Korean cooperation while highlighting the Philippines' increasing efforts to deepen regional security relationships.

• Former Indian Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan (retd) has stated that Pakistan’s wider engagement through defence pacts, such as the Mecca Agreement, could lead to miscalculations, while also acknowledging China’s territorial boundary disputes with India. The comments suggest that Pakistan’s Middle Eastern engagement through partnership building is also having broader regional impacts, particularly with India. 

• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced that South Korea would hold the first South Korean–Central Asia Summit to deepen economic and strategic ties. Leaders from  Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, ​Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will attend to discuss trade, energy, investment, supply chains and critical minerals. East Asian states continue to build partnerships as the region operates under U.S. strategic ambiguity. 

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

India–Japan Defence Cooperation 

▲ Increasing

China–Philippine Diplomatic Tension 

► Stable

India’s Regional Security Challenges 

↔ Mixed

South Korean Engagement in Central Asia 

▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• Progress and regional reaction to the joint India–Japan air force exercise, Veer Guardian.

• Diplomatic statements from China and the Philippines following the Seoul Defence Dialogue and increasing maritime pressure around the Philippines.

• Indian regional engagement in defence partnership-building in response to the Mecca Agreement.

• South Korean statements on potential agreements with Central Asian states.

EUROPE

• European pressure on Israel over the West Bank is increasing through coalitions and national decisions rather than as a European Union bloc measure. EU disagreements on trade restrictions against Israel in breach of international law have led to Spain, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the UK indicating that they are considering trade restrictions. The decision would join other measures taken by Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium on settlement goods.

• France, Italy, and possibly Germany are reportedly planning to pressure the EU to implement a trade tool to protect the chemicals and plastics sector amid rising Chinese imports. The chemicals sector is under dual pressure from U.S. tariffs and Chinese imports, with calls from member states to deploy safeguards. Trade tension is increasingly leading to defensive trade tools and economic leverage being employed as countries face uncertainty across sectors.

• European critical minerals dependence on China has led to 23 European developers requesting urgent funding. Although 60 strategic projects were selected, developers have argued that financial support, market access and permitting are too slow, which has hindered implementation. The criticism highlights the challenges in reducing critical mineral supply chain dependence, diversifying supply chains and developing processing capacity.

• The EU is deepening engagement with Greenland with the announcement of a €200 million support package for 2026–27 covering renewable energy, connectivity and mining. Funding for Greenland is expected to double to €530 million between 2028 and 2034. Part of the EU investment will include two mining projects involving molybdenum, which is used in alloy steel. The EU has increased engagement in the Arctic with joint military exercises under Arctic Shield and expanded economic investment.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

European States’ Trade Tension with Israel
▲ Increasing

Economic Pressure on EU Chemicals Sector
▲ Increasing

EU Critical Minerals Diversification
↔ Mixed

EU Engagement with Greenland
▲ Increasing

WHAT TO WATCH

• EU states implementing trade restrictions against Israel and potential Israeli retaliatory measures.

• EU defensive trade tools implemented to protect the chemicals sector from Chinese imports, and possibly subsidies to support the sector under tariff pressure.

• Additional funding mechanisms or fast-tracked permitting to increase EU critical minerals diversification.

• Progress on EU mining projects in Greenland alongside infrastructure development.

MIDDLE EAST

• The Houthis have seized the strategic Yemeni port city of Mocha, potentially increasing leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Houthi forces are reportedly advancing towards strategic islands which could increase pressure on the Red Sea outlet. The capture of Mocha not only has implications for vessels transiting the Red Sea but also for regional stability. Houthi attacks on the Saudi city of Khamis Mushiat have reportedly led to calls from Pakistan, a partner in the Mecca Agreement, for Iran to halt Houthi attacks. The increasing conflict may also provide Iran with leverage against the U.S. 

• U.S. and Iranian attacks against vessels around Hormuz continue as both sides attempt to implement a blockade. Iran has reportedly attacked ten vessels, while the U.S. has destroyed five Iranian tankers. Despite the risk, clandestine shipments continue to use the Strait of Hormuz, with transit levels fluctuating during the contest for control of the Strait.

• Qatar is reportedly considering a long-term agreement with the U.S. for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to support existing commitments. The Iran–U.S. conflict highlights the region’s ongoing energy disruption and efforts to adapt to alternative supply chains.

• Oman is reportedly aiming to convene a meeting between Iranian officials and foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. With increasing clashes in Yemen, details of the proposed meeting are yet to be confirmed. The meeting highlights Oman’s central role in potentially facilitating negotiations over the Strait and ongoing regional efforts to resolve the disruption. Simultaneously, with wider disruption between Yemen and Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the two chokepoints are increasingly interconnected.

STRATEGIC INDICATOR

Houthi Escalation and Strategic Territorial Gains
▲ Increasing

Escalation in Attacks against Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
▲ Increasing

Qatar LNG Imports
↔ Mixed

Oman’s Regional Diplomatic Efforts
↔ Mixed

WHAT TO WATCH

• Regional responses to Houthi territorial gains, including diplomatic or military responses from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Pakistan.

• Ongoing attacks against vessels by Iran and U.S. enforcement of the blockade in the Gulf.

• Progress on Qatar securing U.S. LNG supplies.

• Progress on Oman convening regional states and Iran and the outcome of any meeting.

GL IN BRIEF | 4 SEPTEMBER

Key Judgements

• Security partnerships continue to deepen globally with Niger–Russia–Algeria, Pacific security investment, and the MJDA operationalisation. States may be building overlapping security partnerships amid U.S. strategic ambiguity. Other states such as South Korea and Belgium may also be diversifying their partnerships, while Poland is strengthening domestic and regional capacity to increase defence self-reliance.

• Economic independence is increasing, particularly with critical minerals. As international competition for critical minerals continues, Africa is using its resource base to build greater infrastructure and processing capacity. Discussions between India and Zambia indicate that interest in Africa’s critical minerals is extending beyond U.S.-China competition. Supply chains continue to face disruption, with weather-related water levels impacting nickel output in Indonesia and global pricing.

• Maritime disruption continues in the Strait of Hormuz, with crude tankers targeted and vessel transits down to single digits on Thursday. Nigeria and Portugal will conduct joint exercises in the Gulf of Guinea to address maritime security challenges, indicating that maritime security remains a strategic priority, particularly around oil infrastructure. U.S.–New Zealand investment in a Cook Islands port will improve trade flows, and alongside further joint Australian–U.S. funding for the region, it signals renewed U.S. investment and commitment to the Pacific.

Africa 

• Niger has regained control of the Niamey airbase after a mutiny and failed coup attempt. Russia’s Africa Corps assisted loyalist forces to recapture the strategic site used to support the AES joint counter-terrorism force. Algeria has sent an air detachment to Niger in a shift in policy from the country’s anti-interventionist approach. Algeria's relations with the Sahel have improved recently after diplomatic tension in 2024, while the deployment could indicate a strengthening of Niger's external security partnerships.

• Competition for critical minerals is broadening beyond the U.S.–China competition, with India holding discussions with Zambia over investment opportunities in copper and other critical minerals. India’s wider engagement in Africa may be motivated by its need to import over 90% of copper concentrates by 2047. The increasing competition may result in greater processing capacity being developed in African countries.

• Ghana National Petroleum Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding with Shell for gas exploration in an effort to boost crude oil production. The MoU provides a framework for negotiations on final licence terms. As Ghana has experienced declining crude oil production, the government has made efforts to attract investment through changes in regulations and taxation. 

• Nigeria and Portugal are conducting joint maritime exercises in the Gulf of Guinea. The exercises will involve Nigerian security agencies and aim to strengthen interoperability and counter maritime security threats. Nigeria’s increasing role in maritime security follows the launch of the Combined Maritime Task Force and an African maritime rapid response to prevent maritime threats and piracy.

Strategic Indicator:

Sahel Security Architecture and External Military Integration

▲ Increasing 

Critical Mineral Competition

▲ Increasing

Gulf of Guinea Security Cooperation

▲ Increasing

What to Watch

• Continued stabilisation efforts from Niger’s military alongside military support from Russia and Algeria, and potential attacks from jihadist groups seeking to capitalise on the internal disruption.

• Progress on the India and Zambia copper and critical minerals discussions, alongside broader Indian engagement with African states. 

• Shell investment in Ghana’s oil and gas infrastructure, potentially increasing output capacity, alongside changes in legislation to encourage investment.

• Diplomatic statements from Nigeria and Portugal suggesting further planned exercises as well as progress on the operationalisation of the Combined Maritime Task Force.

Americas

• Argentine President Javier Milei announced measures aimed at strengthening defence in southern Argentina, including sanctions on companies involved in oil projects around the Falkland Islands, a bill in Congress that strengthens Argentina’s response to territorial violations through extended sanctions, and plans to build a naval base to strengthen telecommunications capabilities. The measures combine energy resources, sanctions and defence posture, indicating a strategic policy shift rather than Falklands rhetoric.

• Cuba has implemented pro-market reform regulations to attract foreign investment, trade and tourism as U.S. economic pressure mounts and the country experiences blackouts. Earlier, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Cuba’s state-owned bank, along with two companies involved in Cuba’s nickel mining industry. The broadening of U.S. sanctions on the nickel industry adds a strategic element to the measures.

• The Canadian government announced plans to invest C$4.7 billion in domestic rail passenger-car manufacturing rather than relying on U.S. manufacturing. As trade tensions continue, Canada's trade surplus was C$769 million, down from C$4.2 billion the previous month, with exports to the U.S. down 6.6%. Domestic manufacturing will reportedly support 700 jobs and signals efforts to secure supply chains and a shift in industrial policy.

• The Trump administration has criticised the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade pact, creating economic uncertainty in Mexico. Companies are reportedly looking to relocate, including three auto parts companies potentially moving to Vietnam. It highlights that even statements on trade can lead to economic uncertainty and flow-on effects.

Strategic Indicator

Argentine Defence Posturing Towards the Falkland Islands

▲ Increasing

Cuba-U.S. Economic Tension

▲ Increasing

Impacts of U.S.-Canada Trade Tension on Canada

▲ Increasing

Foreign Investment in Mexico

↔ Mixed

What to Watch

• UK diplomatic responses to Argentine sanctions against companies operating in the Falkland region.

• Foreign investment in Cuba and further U.S. sanctions.

• Progress on Canada-U.S. trade discussions, ongoing economic impacts, and policies to counter tariffs.

• Further U.S. administration statements on the USMCA and continued economic impacts on Mexico.

Asia Pacific 

• The Pacific Islands Forum has highlighted the increasing strategic pressure in the Pacific. China objected to the inclusion of Taiwan at the Forum, prompting a response from Australia and New Zealand that the Pacific bloc decides attendees. Several prime ministers did not attend, with suggestions that political pressure influenced their absence. The host country, Palau, secured a joint response to the Chinese ballistic missile test in July, while Beijing downplayed the concern during the week as hype. The diplomatic statements highlight the increasing challenges Pacific states face balancing relations with China and Taiwan, economic interests and regional security.

• Australia and the U.S. have pledged USD 580 million in funding for the Pacific Islands. The U.S. will provide USD 150 million, with USD 60 million allocated to energy by expanding fuel storage capacity and supporting grid stability. Australia’s USD 430 million will go towards security in the region, combating drug smuggling, enhancing aerial surveillance, and police and border officer training. The announcement of the funding signals continued Australian engagement and renewed U.S. interest in the region.

• The U.S. and New Zealand will contribute USD 60 million towards an upgrade of a World War Two port in the Cook Islands. The upgrade will support shipping conditions by improving access to services while strengthening transport and economic links. The project follows a critical-minerals framework signed between the U.S. and Cook Islands earlier in the year. New Zealand’s funding follows the recently signed defence and security partnership with the Cook Islands, which signals improved relations after diplomatic tensions in 2023 after the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. 

• Nickel prices rose as weather conditions created water shortages in Indonesia, leading to concerns over a 30-40% reduction in nickel production. Some processing facilities are dependent on hydropower, which has been affected by the low water levels. With rainfall in September predicted to be less than 50mm/month in Sulawesi, nickel output may remain disrupted, leading to further price increases. 

Strategic Indicator

Chinese-Pacific Relations 

↔ Mixed

Australia–New Zealand–US Financial Investment in the Pacific Region

▲ Increasing

Indonesian Nickel Supply Pressure

▲ Increasing

What to Watch

• Joint statement from the Pacific Island Forum on the Chinese ballistic missile test and statements referencing regional autonomy, international law, and Chinese responses.

• Progress on Australia–New Zealand–US-funded projects alongside Chinese responses through increased infrastructure investment.

• Weather conditions and the impact on Indonesia's nickel output, as well as statements indicating investment in energy infrastructure.

Europe

• The EU has vowed to apply increased pressure on Russia in response to allegations that Russia was responsible for a drone laden with explosives found in Leipzig/Halle Airport. The measures will reportedly include sanctions that may target Russia’s military complex and supply chain. The discovery of the drone indicates an escalation in hybrid activity with NATO and the EU having to balance a response against the risk of escalation.

• European gas storage facilities are approximately 65% full. The Commission’s Gas Coordination Group reported that there is no immediate risk to gas supplies, but that the global gas markets require monitoring. The EU’s reliance on Russian gas alongside the Middle East supply chain disruption has exposed continued energy dependence.

• Poland's militarisation continues to expand through domestic production, defence procurement and joint ventures with Central European companies. Poland’s defence budget is approximately €53 billion, with the country now focusing on expanding domestic and Central European production while reducing dependence on external procurement.

• Belgium and India have committed to strengthening ties across defence, trade, clean energy, critical minerals, research and semiconductors. India has existing ties with the EU; however, the commitment with Belgium suggests deepening relations with individual states which are also looking for diversified economic and strategic partnerships.

Strategic Indicator

• Russian Hybrid Activity and Tension with the EU ▲ Increasing

• European Gas Supplies ↔ Mixed

• Poland’s Militarisation, Domestic Production and Central European Procurement ▲ Increasing

• Belgium–India Strategic Cooperation ▲ Increasing

What to Watch

• EU diplomatic statements and sanctions targeting Russian military and economic infrastructure.

• Changes in EU gas purchases and storage volumes.

• Poland’s development of domestic drone production capacity alongside further procurement.

• Further details on the Belgium–India partnership.

Middle East

• U.S. sanctions and naval blockade have applied significant economic pressure on Iran. Reports suggest Iranian crude loadings are down from approximately 1.7 million bpd to 260,000 bpd. Further reports indicate that foreign trade has declined by 35% while inflation is close to 70%. The UAE has stopped dealings with Iran, which has added pressure. The combination of sanctions and naval blockade may be restricting Iran’s ability to circumvent sanctions, particularly through oil ship-to-ship transfers and shadow fleet operations.

• Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists as maritime tracking data indicates only four commodity vessels transited on Thursday, down from an average of 15 over the previous 10 days. Attacks on tankers carrying Saudi crude earlier this week indicate that oil tankers may face greater risk than commodity vessels. Oil markets are reacting with Brent up 7.6%, at around $95.52.

• South Korea is considering contributing to freedom of navigation in Hormuz, which may include military support. The consideration may be influenced by Asia’s heavy dependence on Middle East energy imports and U.S.-South Korean security discussions. The review of supporting freedom of navigation may be part of an international shift towards maritime enforcement in the region.

• The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is beginning to operationalise, with a permanent secretariat established in Riyadh. The first secretary-general is expected to be announced soon, with the next steps reportedly focused on creating an institutional framework. The MJDA is shifting from committee to secretariat, leadership and discussions of a potential expansion, with Egypt, Bangladesh and other Gulf states as possible members. Developments indicate a continued reshaping of the security architecture in the region.

Strategic Indicator

U.S. Sanctions and Economic Pressure on Iran

▲ Increasing

Maritime Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz

↔ Mixed

South Korean Involvement in Upholding Freedom of Navigation

↔ Mixed

Operationalisation of the MJDA

▲ Increasing

What to Watch

• Further U.S. sanctions on Iran and crude export volumes, inflation levels, as well as regional economic isolation.

• Maritime data indicating shipping transit volumes and vessel types.

• Progress on South Korea’s consideration of support for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Further operationalisation of the MJDA alongside diplomatic statements that could indicate potential membership expansion.

GL IN BRIEF | 28 AUGUST

Key Judgements

• Security partnerships are forming and becoming more operational as states respond to regional pressure and seek to reduce dependence. As AES strengthens political cooperation, India continues to expand exercises and partnerships, while Pakistan deepens relations with Middle Eastern states.

• Disruption to energy and maritime routes is increasing investment in alternative routes to build capacity. From Africa to South America, investment in energy and mining infrastructure is aiming to increase supply output.

• European security pressure is occurring across multiple fronts. Disruption in the Black Sea has decreased supply chains and requires NATO members to invest in mine-clearing capabilities. Tension between Russia and NATO continues with reports of a potential limited Russian attack on NATO territory.

• Economic and security partnerships are becoming less exclusive, and trade talks between the U.S. and Canada deteriorate. Egypt's joint air force exercise with China, despite Egypt’s defence relationship with France, demonstrates partners can engage simultaneously with competing powers.
  
  

Africa 

• Investment in energy infrastructure proceeds in Mozambique as ExxonMobil awards pre-investment contracts for equipment. Despite the ongoing Islamist militant risk, the decision highlights efforts to develop energy infrastructure outside the Middle East amid ongoing disruption in the region.

• Institution building deepens within the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) as the first session of the confederal parliament was held to strengthen parliamentary cooperation. The first parliamentary session expands on the existing security partnership towards broader institution-building and away from the previous regional architecture.

•  A military rescue operation was launched after a mass kidnapping by gunmen in Niger State, Nigeria. Reports indicate that 600 people were abducted during an attack, in which 30 people were killed. Abductions for ransom continue to pose security challenges in the region, highlighting the difficulties security forces face in preventing large-scale attacks.

• South African mining companies are investing in renewable energy to reduce dependence on the ageing state provider Eskom and reduce costs. The shift highlights that while Africa shifts beyond critical mineral extraction, infrastructure constraints continue to restrict output.

Strategic Indicator

AES Integration ▲ Increasing

African Energy Infrastructure ▲ Increasing

The AES has signalled political integration through the first confederal parliamentary session. While security cooperation developed partly in response to the ongoing threat from Islamists, the deepening political integration suggests that a new framework is emerging outside the previous architecture.

As global supply chain disruption and energy dependence continue, so too does investment in Africa’s energy sector. With Africa becoming more important as a supplier of critical minerals and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, investment in infrastructure to support output is increasing.

What to Watch

• Progress on the ExxonMobil project in Mozambique and any disruption caused by insecurity.

• Developments and appointments after the first confederal parliamentary session.

• The security operation to rescue the 600 hostages in Nigeria, along with statements on improving regional security.

• Further investment in renewable energy by South African mining companies.

Americas

• U.S.-Canada failed trade negotiations have led to Canada announcing retaliatory tariffs on USD 20 billion worth of imports set to be implemented on 8 September. The U.S. has already imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products, which will pressure integrated supply chains and suggests that existing diplomatic relations will not exclude trade tariffs between the U.S. and its partners.

• Argentina and Chile are revitalising the 1997 Mining Integration and Complementation Treaty. The agreement is seeking to change legal and regulatory frameworks to enable greater cooperation between companies by sharing infrastructure and resources in the Andes Mountains. The project could provide access to over USD 20 billion in investment and allow Argentina to access Chilean ports. The cooperation demonstrates efforts to access critical minerals as global supply chains look to diversify.

• A U.S. military strike on alleged drug smugglers on a boat in the Caribbean Sea killed four people as part of a months-long enforcement campaign. The strike may indicate that U.S. security engagement is increasingly militarised and operational as part of the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ rather than confined to training, intelligence, and shared military equipment.

Strategic Indicator

U.S.–Canada Free Trade ▼ Decreasing

Argentina–Chile Mining Cooperation ▲ Increasing

US-Canada trade relations have been deteriorating since the announcement of the Trump administration's tariffs. The failed trade talks and subsequent Canadian diplomatic statements that followed indicate that trade tensions are likely to remain in the immediate term.

Global demand and critical mineral supply chain diversification may have revitalised Argentina and Chile's 1997 mining agreement. While the project is in the initial stages, it signals potential mining cooperation.

What to Watch

• Reports on the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow confirming details of the visit and Russia-NATO reactions.

• Diplomatic statements on Chinese military engagement in Egypt and toward France-Egypt defence relations.

• Deployment of Bulgaria’s minehunter ships in the Black Sea and progress on security cooperation.

• Progress on Italy’s SAFE funding request alongside indications of defence spending allocations.
  

Asia Pacific 

• Japan and India deepen security ties as the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) plans to send fighters to India. The bilateral exercise with the Indian Air Force is set for September, with the U.S. providing additional logistical support for the JASDF through aerial refuelling during the deployment. The first JASDF deployment to India signals strengthening defence cooperation and suggests that Japan may be seeking to operationalise the relationship.

• Australia-India defence cooperation in undersea domain awareness strengthens as their joint science and technology project to improve the detection and tracking of submarines and autonomous underwater vehicles develops. With Chinese submarine operations in the Indian Ocean, the initiative shows bilateral and multilateral defence cooperation is becoming increasingly integrated.

• The Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre have committed to strengthening regional peace and security cooperation. The agreement includes information sharing, analysis, and situational awareness to respond to security challenges. The collaboration suggests that the Pacific is also strengthening security partnerships, consistent with wider trends across the Asia-Pacific.

• India's and Vietnam's coast guards are strengthening maritime security through planned joint exercises to boost interoperability and operational coordination. Although a 2015 MoU was signed, the joint maritime exercise suggests a deepening of the relationship and ongoing efforts by India to strengthen bilateral maritime cooperation.

Strategic Indicator

Indian Security Cooperation ▲ Increasing

Pacific Security Cooperation ▲ Increasing

India’s defence cooperation is becoming more operational through joint exercises and technology development with regional partners, particularly in maritime security. 

Pacific security cooperation is emerging with the agreement between the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre. While the agreement is in the initial stages, it may signal further collaboration.

What to Watch

• India-Japan joint air force exercises and regional responses.

• Progress on the Australia-India undersea domain awareness joint project.

• Progress on the agreement between the Melanesian Spearhead Group Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre.

• Joint maritime drills between the Indian and Vietnamese Coast Guards and further planned meetings.

Europe

• CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow and met with Russian intelligence officials, the first visit from a CIA Director in five years. The visit follows reports that NATO intelligence indicated Moscow was considering an assault on NATO territory. U.S. media reports that Ratcliffe warned Moscow against attacking NATO members.

• The Chief of the French Defence Staff, France’s highest military commander, arrived in Egypt to discuss deepening defence cooperation. The talks follow reports of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 training against the Egyptian Air Force flying French-made Rafales. The joint exercises provide an opportunity for Chinese aircraft to train against French-made Rafales, a fighter also operated by NATO members, highlighting that defence client partners may engage with competitors.

• Bulgaria will acquire seven minehunter ships from Belgium and the Netherlands to enhance mine-clearing capabilities in the Black Sea. As part of a joint task force with Romania and Turkey, the three countries will work to protect critical infrastructure and secure maritime routes. The Black Sea disruption is escalating as Ukraine and Russia continue to target infrastructure. 

• Italy has requested €8 billion from the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) to bolster defence capabilities. The decision comes amid pressure from the public and opposition to increase defence spending, highlighting the challenge European members face trying to balance regional security threats and maintain political consensus. 

Strategic Indicator

European Security Pressure ▲ Increasing

Europe continues to face ongoing security pressure due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With NATO intelligence reports indicating the possibility of a limited Russian attack on NATO territory, followed by a high-level visit by the CIA Director, the visit may suggest efforts to de-escalate tensions. Economic conflict in the Black Sea risks escalation after comments by President Putin that Russia will expand economic targets. Ukrainian grain exports have decreased as risk in the Black Sea has increased. Joint air force exercises between China and Egypt may also raise concerns for NATO partners as Chinese pilots operate against French jets, potentially gaining further insights into Rafale capabilities.

What to Watch

• Reports on the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow confirming details of the visit and Russia-NATO reactions.

• Diplomatic statements on Chinese military engagement in Egypt and toward France-Egypt defence relations.

• Deployment of Bulgaria’s minehunter ships in the Black Sea and progress on security cooperation.

• Progress on Italy’s SAFE funding request alongside indications of defence spending allocations.

Middle East

• Iran continues to make attempts to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, blacklisting 45 tankers for breaking crossing rules and threatening action. The threats extend to any vessels transferring loads to the tankers, demonstrating the volatility and instability in the maritime zone.

• Qatar is attempting to restart diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. Both sides have indicated an unwillingness to engage in negotiations, indicating that in the near term maritime disruption is likely to continue.

• The Houthis claim to have attacked a Saudi-linked vessel in the Red Sea, indicating ongoing efforts by the group to target Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. The attack occurred near the Red Sea terminus of the East-West pipeline, which is strategically important for Saudi oil transfers. The proximity of the attack highlights the vulnerability of infrastructure supporting alternative oil export routes.

• Pakistan continues to build defence partnerships in the region with the signing of an agreement with Kuwait to expand military cooperation. The agreement will allow training, border management, and capacity building with Kuwait. The Pakistan-Kuwait agreement follows an earlier trilateral defence cooperation between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicating Pakistan's deepening security ties in the region and emerging defence architecture

Strategic Indicator

Changing Middle East Security Architecture ▲ Increasing 

The Middle East is reshaping security partnerships amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Pakistan is playing a central role in building security cooperation with the Pakistan-Kuwait agreement, which follows a bilateral agreement with Saudi Arabia and a trilateral agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Qatar is positioning itself as a mediator in the U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting that regional pressure may be accelerating attempts to negotiate a solution.

What to Watch

• Iranian enforcement measures against blacklisted tankers and data indicating changes in shipping behaviour.

• Progress and diplomatic statements on Qatar’s mediation efforts between the U.S. and Iran.

• Further Houthi attacks near Saudi energy infrastructure, particularly an expansion of targets that include alternative energy infrastructure.

• Operationalisation of the Pakistan-Kuwait security agreement and further regional security partnerships.

GL in brief | 21 August

Key Judgements

• Security partnerships across Africa, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific are expanding through bilateral agreements and joint military activity.

• Strategic alignment is being driven by sector instead of forming large geopolitical blocs, with partnerships developing for security, energy, trade, and technology.

• Maritime disruption continues in the Middle East, while the Black Sea is becoming another theatre with downstream impacts on commodity prices.

• Governments and logistics companies are responding to maritime disruption through initiatives like Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor. Route adaptation is in the early stages but may become more permanent as maritime disruption persists. 

Africa

• Mali continues to strengthen ties with Russia after pivoting away from Western governments. A phone call between Mali’s interim president, Assimi Goïta, and Russian President Vladimir Putin took place on August 19. The deepening of the relationship may extend from security cooperation in Mali’s fight against militants to trade-related, economic, and humanitarian areas.

• Malawi has suspended new mining licences while also maintaining a ban on raw mineral exports. Critics claim the decision will deter investment, which is required to expand production. Malawi’s suspension continues a growing trend of African governments seeking to increase domestic value from mineral resources while expanding refining capacity.

• African states continue to seek regional security ties, reducing reliance on foreign forces. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the Democratic Republic of Congo President Félix Tshisekedi have called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Congolese territory while indicating deeper security cooperation between the two countries. President Tshisekedi also stated the continent must move from critical mineral extraction towards processing. The statements reflect Africa’s ongoing reshaping of security and mineral policy.

Strategic Indicator

Africa’s Intention to Expand Critical Mineral Processing and Deepen Security Ties

▲ Increasing

African states continue to emphasise a shift from critical mineral extraction to domestic processing. Numerous states have begun constructing refineries or including processing in critical mineral agreements. The decision to move towards processing may require foreign investment, which is likely to come from competition as foreign powers seek to secure critical mineral agreements.

The Sahel states, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo signal their intention to reduce reliance on external security partners. African security partnerships, such as between Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are emerging, while the Sahel states deepen ties with Russia.

What to Watch

• Russian military support in the Sahel alongside announcements of economic or trade agreements.

• Progress on Malawi’s efforts to build critical mineral processing capacity and conditions attached to any new mining licences.

• Responses from foreign forces stationed inside the Democratic Republic of Congo’s territory as well as the operationalisation of security measures between Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Americas

• Latin America’s electoral shift towards the right has created greater regional security convergence in the Western Hemisphere. Expanded efforts to combat drug cartels have included U.S. strikes in Panama, alongside cooperation with Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Despite closer security ties, economic policy alignment remains fragmented as Washington continues to impose tariffs and apply trade pressure across Latin America.

• Drought and conflict have created pressure on global waterways, forcing states and logistics companies to seek alternative routes. Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec may offer an alternative land route between the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific ports. Maritime chokepoint vulnerabilities have been exposed through congestion and economic impacts. Mexico aims to develop the corridor as a more stable alternative route to the Panama Canal.

• Global competition in Latin America continues as Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa. President Xi stated that Latin American partners should be free to choose their relationships independently. The meeting between the two leaders focused on economic and energy matters. While Noboa is considered a Trump administration ally, Ecuador’s economic ties with China highlight the tension between economic and security partnerships in the region.

Strategic Indicator 

US–Latin American Security Cooperation
▲ Increasing

Latin American Strategic Alignment

↔ Mixed

Latin American elections have resulted in a shift to the political right, contributing to greater security alignment with Washington. Election issues such as crime and security have seen some Latin American governments forge closer security ties with the U.S., particularly in efforts targeting drug traffickers.

While U.S.-Latin American security cooperation is expanding, the region’s economic ties with China limit broader alignment with Washington. States are increasingly trying to balance security and economic objectives amid continued U.S. trade pressure.

What to Watch

• Joint U.S.-Latin American security operations targeting narcotics traffickers alongside tariff announcements.

• Progress on Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec including responses from logistics companies.

• Economic or trade agreements between China and Latin American states.

Asia Pacific 

• Indonesia and China have agreed to increase military ties while also cooperating more closely on technology, energy, and the critical minerals sector. Indonesia maintains its “free and active” foreign policy, balancing regional and international relationships, conducting military exercises with neighbours and maintaining a critical minerals agreement with the U.S. The announcement expands Indonesia’s relationships with competing powers.

• Quad members Japan and India have agreed to deepen security ties, including maritime operations. Japan’s technology and India’s production capacity may support deeper cooperation. The announcement is a continuation of regional states developing overlapping bilateral security arrangements rather than relying on U.S. security guarantees.

• China has expanded its maritime activity east of Taiwan, which includes law enforcement patrols. The expansion has increased tensions with Taiwan and the Philippines, raising concerns that China is seeking to establish a more permanent presence in the region. Activity in the Pacific approaches east of Taiwan may also complicate U.S.-Japan operating areas while increasing China’s ability to operate around Taiwan.

Strategic Indicators

Application of Indonesia’s Free and Active Policy

▲ Increasing

Bilateral Security Arrangements

▲ Increasing

Chinese Maritime Activity

▲ Increasing

Indonesia continues to engage with regional partners on economic matters and security. Recently, Indonesia has signed a critical minerals agreement with the U.S. and has also agreed to buy BrahMos missiles from India. Regional partners may find Indonesia’s ambiguous foreign policy challenging to interpret and potentially destabilising.

Regional partnerships are expanding, primarily driven by security, with economic and technology sectors potentially forming part of the agreements. Small groups and overlapping agreements have expanded as regional states appear to rely less on U.S. security guarantees.

China’s maritime activity along the First Island Chain has expanded into waters east of Taiwan. The activity comes at a time when the forward-deployed USS George Washington, normally stationed in the Western Pacific, has arrived in the Middle East, leaving the U.S. without a carrier in the region. 

What to Watch

• Regional responses to increased Indonesian-China cooperation alongside progress on agreements or joint military exercises between the two countries.

• Progress on Japan and India deepening security ties and cooperation in other sectors.

• Data indicating Chinese maritime activity in the waters east of Taiwan alongside diplomatic statements from China and responses from regional states. 

Europe

• A marine drone was destroyed by a Romanian F-16. The drone was near the Black Sea gas ‌project Neptun Deep, highlighting heightened activity in the Black Sea and threats to critical infrastructure. As an extension of the Ukraine conflict, Black Sea infrastructure is being targeted as part of a sanctions campaign by Ukraine, drawing a greater response from Russia.

• The U.S. and six NATO allies will conduct exercises in Iceland to test the defence of the island and North Atlantic sea routes. The operation, Northern Viking 2026, combines crisis response, maritime warfare, and command and control operations. NATO exercises focus on protecting critical infrastructure and maritime routes that may be required during conflict.

• Ukrainian and Russian attacks in the Black Sea targeting infrastructure are affecting commodity prices. Reports indicate that grain exports are disrupted, with some terminals shut down, reducing supplies and increasing global prices. The attacks have also increased tanker rates, reportedly doubling daily rates since June. Disruption in the Black Sea is moving beyond the region and affecting broader commodity supplies and prices.

Strategic Indicator

Impacts of Black Sea Attacks

▲ Increasing

NATO Activity in the North Atlantic

▲ Increasing

Attacks in the Black Sea are escalating alongside diplomatic statements indicating the region is becoming a more significant theatre of conflict. The expansion of conflict across the Black Sea has increased maritime risks, resulting in higher shipping costs, terminal closures, and reduced exports.

U.S. and other NATO allies continue to conduct joint military exercises to strengthen North Atlantic security and interoperability. The exercises highlight the importance of protecting maritime routes needed for Europe during conflict.

What to Watch

• Further Ukrainian and Russian attacks in the Black Sea targeting energy and military infrastructure.

• NATO exercises in the North Atlantic and diplomatic responses.

• Black Sea commodity prices, export volumes, tanker rates, and downstream economic impacts.

Middle East

• The U.S. has indicated that new economic sanctions on Iran will be imposed and may also include secondary measures against Iran’s trading partners. The expansion of secondary measures intended to isolate Iran may target partners that trade with Iran or import oil. Some of Iran’s trading partners could also be U.S. allies or security partners, potentially creating pressure on U.S. relations with those states. As yet, details of enforcement measures have not been released. Iran has responded by issuing multidomain threats.

• The Iran-backed Houthis continue to launch a campaign against Saudi targets with drone and missile strikes. The ongoing strikes also threaten to disrupt the Bab al-Mandeb maritime chokepoint, creating additional pressure alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the recent signing of the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan security pact, which contains a mutual defence clause, the Houthis have maintained their military strikes against Saudi Arabia and may test how the security partnership responds.

• Maritime traffic data indicates that commodity shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with single-digit transits on some days. The low transit volumes indicate that shipping operators continue to perceive risk for crude tankers, as the seven ships that transited were commodity vessels.

Strategic Indicator

Iran Economic Isolation Pressure

▲ Increasing

Maritime Chokepoint Pressure

▲ Increasing

To pressure Iran, the U.S. has indicated an expansion of economic sanctions that may include secondary measures. In an attempt to isolate Iran from trading partners, the secondary measures may target both trade and energy partners. With limited details about the sanctions, the U.S. may have to balance its own relations with some of Iran’s trading partners.

Maritime disruption continues through the Strait of Hormuz and is increasing around Bab al-Mandeb. Maritime traffic data indicates that transit volumes are low and that shipping operators perceive increased risks to very large crude carriers.

What to Watch

• Progress on U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, including enforcement measures, particularly secondary measures, alongside diplomatic responses.

• Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and efforts to disrupt Bab al-Mandeb, as well as responses from Saudi Arabia and defence partners.

• Maritime traffic data indicating shipping volumes and vessel types transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.

Gl in brief | 16 august

Key judgements

• Maritime chokepoint pressure is extending to the Panama Canal. Disruption in the Middle East, low water levels, and Asian demand for U.S. oil supplies are contributing to increased costs.

• Regional security partnerships continue to be reshaped through the MJDA, A3C and U.S. regional engagement in Asia. Partnerships, burden-sharing, and overlapping security mechanisms are emerging across the Americas, Asia, and the Middle East.

• Critical mineral competition continues as Africa develops its domestic capacity, and China expands its critical mineral enforcement strategy. 

• Western sanctions targeting Russian networks have drawn threats of retaliation from the Kremlin. While Russia has made attempts to adapt, the threats of retaliation signal a new phase in how sanctions are evolving.

Africa

• Fighting in Sudan continues with the ​Sudanese Rapid Support Forces launching drone strikes and land-based attacks on the city of al-Obeid. Both the RSF and government forces are massing in Kordofan. Al-Obeid is strategically significant, located between SAF-held central/eastern Sudan and RSF-held Darfur.

• Critical mineral investment opportunities in Africa remain; however, governments are increasingly under domestic pressure to demonstrate the financial gains. Zambia’s election is demonstrating the politicisation of the economic benefits of mining, with political opponents disputing the economic impact of the USD 10 billion of mining investment since 2021.

• Algeria continues to engage in the Sahel following the restoration of diplomatic relations with Mali in July 2026 and the transfer of military equipment to Niger. Algeria has exported attack and transport helicopters, ammunition, spare parts, and maintenance equipment to Niger. It comes at a time when Sahel states are pivoting away from Western allies towards Russia.

• Dangote announced that construction of a Kenyan oil refinery would commence shortly and be completed in four years. The refinery aims to service wider East Africa and potentially Egypt in an effort to create greater energy self-sufficiency. 

Strategic Indicator

African Resource and Industrial Capacity

▲ Increasing

African states are creating greater critical mineral opportunities with investment moving towards processing, refining, and downstream capacity. With increasing external competition for critical minerals, African governments are gaining greater bargaining power and leveraging agreements that seek to improve domestic economic benefits. While the benefits of external investment exist, African governments are facing growing domestic pressure to demonstrate improved economic conditions while simultaneously managing natural resources. 

The planned Kenyan refinery indicates efforts to make Africa more energy self-sufficient in a broader strategy by Dangote that includes expanding African refineries and attracting foreign investment.  

What to Watch

• Continued military build-up around the city of al-Obeid and international efforts to de-escalate the conflict in the city.

• Reported violence and disruption impacting the Zambian election along with the electoral outcome.

• Increased engagement between Sahel states and Algeria.

• Progress on the planned Kenyan refinery and other Dangote energy projects.

Americas

• Costs to transit the Panama Canal have reached record highs. Transit slots are reportedly 16 times higher than the previous year, with the average price at USD 1.1 million. A convergence of factors includes increased marine traffic after the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and lower water levels that have restricted how much cargo ships can carry. Asian purchases of U.S. oil instead of Middle Eastern supplies have also increased traffic flows. The Panama Canal is also becoming a stressed chokepoint, which may have downstream costs and supply impacts.

• U.S. engagement in the Western Hemisphere continues at the U.S.-led Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition (A3C) in Panama, with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly considering Colombia-U.S. joint strikes on terror networks. The recently elected Colombian President Abelardo De La Espriella's government will receive USD 1 billion in financial support for security assistance, signaling a closer alignment between the two countries on security matters.

• Panama government officials met with workers and suppliers to consider the future of the Cobre Panamá copper mine. The Cobre Panamá mine was halted in 2023 after a Supreme Court ruled the mining contract unconstitutional. Global demand for copper and the economic impact of the closure have led to increased efforts to resolve the status of the mine.

Strategic Indicator

Maritime Chokepoint Pressure

▲ Increasing

The Panama Canal has become more strategically important while also managing increasing pressure. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to maritime operators seeking alternative energy sources and shipping flows, while Asian energy buyers also pivot towards U.S. suppliers. Low water levels from high summer temperatures have also restricted cargo capacity.

The convergence of factors, including reduced cargo capacity, supply pressure, and increased operating costs, is likely to lead to downstream impacts on costs and product supplies.

What to Watch

• Costs to transit the Panama Canal and the potential for maritime operators to increase bidding for transit slots.

• U.S. and Colombian joint strikes on drug cartels and wider U.S. military engagement with A3C members.

• Progress on the status of the Cobre Panamá copper mine.

Asia Pacific 

• China’s detention of Japanese executives for alleged involvement in breaching export restrictions signals an expansion of enforcement from companies to individuals. China alleges that the Japanese nationals violated restrictions on rare-earth and dual-use technology exports, with authorities also increasing inspections of Japanese facilities and questioning company officials.

• ​Undersecretary of Defence Elbridge Colby reaffirmed U.S. engagement in Asia; however, he reiterated the U.S. position of partnership, not dependency. Greater burden sharing and deterrence along the First Island Chain are considered U.S. priorities. The statements were followed by Adm. Frank Bradley, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command, who indicated that special forces were willing to engage with Asian partners. The recent statements reinforce continued U.S. engagement with the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea.

• New Zealand has granted a petroleum mining permit in an effort to increase natural gas supplies. The decision to grant a mining permit is only the second in eight years and signals a shift towards greater self-sufficiency and away from the previous government's policy of blocking offshore drilling.

Strategic Indicator

China’s Critical Mineral Restrictions

▲ Increasing

China has already placed critical mineral restrictions on Japan and Europe; however, the recent detention of Japanese nationals signals an enforcement escalation. The Chinese decision suggests individuals may be targeted, as well as foreign companies operating in China. 

With suspended controls set to automatically resume in November unless China decides to extend the suspension, markets are adapting through increased pricing as operators seek to secure stock. 

What to Watch

• Progress on the Japanese nationals detained in China and the continued Chinese enforcement strategy against companies and individuals.

• U.S. and Asian partners increasing deterrence measures in the First Island Chain, alongside joint military drills, interoperability, and Asian defence budget increases.

• Progress in New Zealand efforts to increase gas production. 

Europe

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to retaliate against Western seizures of Russian commercial vessels. Europe and the UK have increased sanctions measures targeting the shadow fleet, with Putin stating that the strategy is “piracy and robbery.” Russia's retaliation, Putin indicated, will not necessarily be at sea, while the Pacific Fleet chief, Adm. Viktor Liina stated the navy could commence its own inspections. The Russian response indicates an escalation between Western sanctions enforcement and potential Russian countermeasures.

• Conflict in the Black Sea continues as infrastructure is targeted, drawing political responses. Ukraine claims to have targeted a Russian naval base but halted attacks on oil tankers reportedly at the request of the U.S. due to the impact on oil markets. Despite Ukraine’s attacks, Russia has reportedly dismissed any potential Black Sea ceasefire. Both oil and grain markets remain disrupted. The Black Sea conflict is emerging as a conflict zone of political, military, and market convergence.

• Eastern NATO partners are strengthening military defence around critical infrastructure. Concerns of a Russian false-flag attack have led to Lithuania deploying military personnel around energy infrastructure, increased security measures at Latvia’s Daugava dam, and Poland’s energy suppliers reassessing security measures. A drone of unidentified origin was shot down over Latvia, with the Baltic states reporting increased drone incursions. 

Strategic Indicator

Western and Russian Sanctions Tension

▲ Increasing

Both the UK and European Union have expanded sanctions targeting Russian interests. The sanctions measures have included financial systems and have extended beyond the shadow fleet to third parties that are part of the support network, while the number of vessels targeted has also increased, including LNG vessels.

Russia has demonstrated the capacity to adapt to Western sanctions through various measures; however, the recent statements may indicate that sanctions are applying increased pressure on Russian networks. The ambiguity of the potential Russian retaliation may be intended to create greater deterrence against further Western sanctions.  

What to Watch

• Russia’s effort to counter Western sanctions through naval escorts or increased diplomatic statements.

• Conflict in the Black Sea targeting infrastructure and naval targets, and diplomatic responses.

• NATO posture in the Baltic states along with diplomatic statements.

Middle East

• Iran and Oman are reportedly working towards an operating agreement in the Strait of Hormuz. Negotiations are expected to include security arrangements and potentially transit fees. The negotiations between the two countries continue, with Iranian efforts to use Hormuz as leverage while also challenging established principles of freedom of navigation.

• The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (MJDA) between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan indicates an emerging security architecture in the region. The agreement includes a nuclear power, a NATO partner, and a reported mutual defence clause with a geographical spread from Asia to the Middle East. Joint military exercises and defence cooperation are reportedly planned, with additional members considered, including Egypt. 

• The Houthis have continued to target commercial shipping in the Red Sea, with ballistic missiles striking a vessel. Attacks on commercial vessels came amid the signing of the MJDA and drew diplomatic condemnation from Pakistan. Houthi strikes continue to challenge Saudi Arabia’s position in the region and its new security partnership. 

Strategic Indicator

Saudi Security Architecture

▲ Increasing

Saudi Arabia has an economic and security diversification strategy and has demonstrated deliberate efforts to build security partnerships. In 2025, the Saudi-Pakistan defence agreement was signed, which has been followed by the MJDA. The partnership will see defence collaboration and the domestic production of drones.

Saudi Arabia has also established a Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to strengthen maritime security and maintain freedom of navigation in the region's waterways. While Saudi Arabia has traditionally relied on the U.S. for military supplies, the recent developments suggest that Saudi Arabia is not only diversifying but also creating overlapping security mechanisms to reduce dependence on a single security partner and supply chain.

What to Watch

• Progress on the Oman-Iran Strait of Hormuz negotiations and international responses to statements or measures.

• The MJDA operationalising the agreement through military drills, intelligence sharing, or defence cooperation.

• Diplomatic or military responses from MJDA partners on any Houthi strikes on Saudi-linked targets or infrastructure.

GL IN BRIEF | 7 August

Key Judgements

• States continue to strengthen partnerships in critical minerals, energy, and infrastructure to improve economic and national security.

• Maritime disruption continues across regions, highlighting the importance of supply chain resilience and logistics.

• Regional security competition is increasingly shaped by partnerships, proxy groups, and economic cooperation rather than direct interstate conflict.

Africa

• Namibian and U.S. government officials met to discuss investment and continued commitment to Namibia’s economy, energy, and mining sector. Namibia is the world’s third-largest producer of uranium and holds significant deposits of other critical minerals. The potential commercial partnerships continue U.S. efforts to strengthen resilient critical mineral and energy supply chains.

• Illegal migration continues to be a pressure point between Africa and Europe, with an estimated 72,000 people entering the Spanish territory of Ceuta in North Africa. While it remains unclear what triggered the sudden surge, the responses from European and Spanish political leaders highlight the continuing political and humanitarian challenges posed by illegal migration, as well as the importance of cooperation between Morocco and Europe.

• Global competition in energy markets is creating new commercial opportunities across Africa. The Dangote Group plans to list its refinery through an initial public offering (IPO), seeking to raise USD 5 billion, while owner Aliko Dangote met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss opportunities for trade and investment. The developments highlight Africa’s growing role in energy markets and trade, attracting increasing international interest amid evolving trade patterns and energy demand.  

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—Africa's Strategic Importance in Energy, Critical Minerals, and European Security

Western interest in Africa's critical minerals continues to focus on partnership agreements and developing processing opportunities. International interest in African critical mineral deposits has grown as countries seek to strengthen critical mineral supply chain resilience and reduce external dependency. Africa is positioning itself as a strategic partner in critical mineral supply chains, which may create additional commercial opportunities.

What to Watch

• Namibia–U.S. progress on partnership and investment agreements in the critical mineral and energy sectors.

• Diplomatic responses from European and Moroccan governments to the illegal influx of migrants into Ceuta.

• Market reaction to the planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, as well as Canadian diplomatic statements on investment and trade opportunities in Africa. 

Americas

• The U.S. and Paraguay signed a Memorandum of Understanding on civilian nuclear energy cooperation authorising peaceful use of nuclear technology for energy or scientific purposes. Washington’s engagement with Western Hemisphere governments signals continued interest in strengthening partnerships in the region as part of its broader National Security Strategy.

• Diplomatic tension between Argentina and Brazil indicates a deterioration in bilateral relations after the Brazilian government condemned remarks made by Argentine President Javier Milei. Brazil will not return its ambassador to Argentina, with diplomatic relations now downgraded to the chargé d'affaires level. The dispute may signal broader internationalisation of political movements, with Milei appearing alongside Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro as ideological allies continue to coordinate across borders.

• The ExxonMobil–Guyana joint energy venture has recovered its USD 55 billion investment two years ahead of schedule while producing 900,000 barrels of oil per day. Guyana is continuing to expand its energy partnerships through cooperation with the Dominican Republic in refining, petrochemicals, and regional energy security. This development follows recent agreements with the United States on energy security and infrastructure cooperation. Together, these developments highlight Guyana’s increasing importance in regional energy markets and its ability to leverage expanding energy production to strengthen regional cooperation. 

Strategic Indicator 

▲ Increasing—South American Energy Partnerships and Production

South America continues to strengthen its energy sector through regional partnerships and infrastructure agreements. In particular, Guyana has signed energy agreements with the U.S., the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Canada, while also holding discussions with Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname. Recent developments highlight the growing importance of South American energy producers within regional and global energy markets.

What to Watch

• Transfers or development of civilian nuclear technology between the U.S. and Paraguay, as well as U.S. investment in the Bi-Oceanic Corridor.

• Diplomatic relations and further statements between Argentina and Brazil.

• Guyana’s expansion of regional energy partnerships, cooperation, refining, petrochemicals, and energy infrastructure.  

Asia Pacific

• Australia reaffirmed support for the Philippines along with upholding the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and international law in the region. The two countries will conduct joint military exercises in 2027, while signalling their intention to deepen bilateral defence cooperation with a Defense Cooperation Arrangement. The development reflects the deepening of regional partnerships and bilateral defence cooperation.

• Pacific leaders at the Pacific Island Forum failed to agree to a joint statement in response to China’s July missile launch. Two of the 18 countries declined to sign the joint statement. The failure to release a joint statement may indicate growing diplomatic fragmentation as regional competition influences decision-making.

• Japan’s release of its Defence White Paper indicates the importance of strengthening global alliances amid a severe and complex security environment. The paper states that global partnerships and cooperation should be expanded and that Europe and the Indo-Pacific are inseparable due to the security challenges both regions face. Japan continues defence spending and building capacity while also acknowledging that alliances are required to address regional security challenges.

Strategic Indicator 

▲ Increasing—Asia Pacific Security Partnerships and Capability

Asian countries continue to expand regional partnerships through bilateral agreements and joint military exercises. Regional security arrangements continue to evolve but remain centred on bilateral and smaller group agreements rather than large multilateral frameworks. The Pacific remains diplomatically fragmented, which may reflect countries pursuing individual agreements and partnerships.

What to Watch

• Australian–Philippine security expansion into information and intelligence sharing, and cyber agreements.

• Individual Pacific diplomatic responses to both the failure to release a statement and towards China’s missile launch.

• Japan’s international security and economic partnership agreements.  

Europe

• The illegal migrant influx from Morocco into Ceuta triggered differing political responses across Europe. Some member states moved to strengthen internal border controls, while 22 EU countries signed a joint letter, prompting an emergency meeting on the issue. The incident highlights the continued challenge of illegal migration and the differing political positions of EU member states.

• Attacks in the Black Sea are escalating, targeting ships, ports, and critical infrastructure to disrupt maritime trade. Ukraine’s long-range sanctions have targeted Russian oil tankers, leading some Russian companies to suspend new shipments through the Black Sea. Insurance premiums in the Black Sea have also increased, highlighting the economic impacts of the attacks. Europe faces growing pressure across its maritime trade routes as the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea all experience disruption.

• Record low water levels in the Rhine and Danube have disrupted two of Europe’s most important economic waterways. Cargo barges have been required to reduce freight loads to transit the Kaub chokepoint between Germany and Switzerland. The cargo adjustments have increased freight costs and low-water surcharges while also restricting agricultural exports along the Danube. 

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—European Trade and Transport Disruption

Europe faces pressure across several maritime corridors and strategic waterways, affecting trade, energy, and supply chains. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea is likely to impact energy and trade flows, while record-low water levels on the Rhine and Danube continue to disrupt inland transport and increase economic pressure.

What to Watch

• EU diplomatic responses and border policy following the surge in illegal migration.

• Continued attacks in the Black Sea targeting maritime energy and trade flows.

• Market reactions to multiple disruptions across European trade and energy routes.

Middle East

• Saudi Arabian oil rerouted through the Suez Canal is increasing crude oil flows to the U.S. to approximately 600,000 barrels per day. Red Sea disruption has prompted Saudi Arabia to redirect exports towards the shorter voyage to the U.S. rather than Asia. Shipping data indicates Saudi Arabia is adapting to Red Sea threats by rerouting oil exports.

• Iran’s proxy network appears to be adapting following the weakened position of traditional allies Hezbollah and the Assad government in Syria. Attacks launched from Iraq against Saudi Arabian and U.S. targets suggest that Iran is placing greater emphasis on Shia-aligned militias in Iraq alongside the Houthis in Yemen. The recent strikes indicate Iran continues to project influence and operational reach across the region.

• The Houthis launched drone and ballistic missile attacks against targets inside Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The strikes indicate escalating regional tensions and demonstrate that the conflict continues to expand, increasing uncertainty across the Middle East and key maritime routes. 

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—Regional Conflict and Energy Disruption

Strikes launched from Yemen and Iraq against Saudi Arabian and U.S. targets indicate increasing involvement by the Houthis and Shia militias in Iraq. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain disrupted; however, shipping data suggests Saudi Arabia is adapting by rerouting oil exports through the Suez Canal.

What to Watch

• Continued rerouting of Saudi oil exports to the U.S. and diplomatic and market reactions in Asia.

• Further attacks launched from Iraq and Yemen against U.S. and Saudi Arabian targets, and subsequent diplomatic and military responses.

GL IN BRIEF | 31 July

AFRICA

• Fighting in Sudan continues to spread, with concerns over an increased risk to civilians in the Kordofan region and Blue Nile. Control of these regions would have strategic implications for key logistical and supply corridors. The conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is increasingly becoming a war of attrition following failed ceasefire discussions.

•  The U.S. is engaging with Eritrea and Somalia over rising tensions in the Red Sea. Both countries share coastlines along the Horn of Africa, and U.S. President’s Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos reportedly discussed regional security and stability with officials. 

• The U.S. is expanding efforts to diversify its critical mineral supply chain by backing the Ampasindava rare earths project in Madagascar. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has pledged investment into the project, highlighting growing competition to reduce dependence on China’s dominance of rare earths and processing.

• The Kenyan government has shortlisted seven consortiums, including U.S., Chinese, and Australian groups, as part of the tender process for Mrima Hill rare earth deposits. Mrima Hill contains an estimated USD 62 billion worth of rare earth resources, with the project highlighting the expansion of the critical mineral industry in Africa, and growing competition over access to minerals. The tender process has also generated concern among local communities, illustrating the potential for domestic tension alongside strategic competition.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—Competition for African critical mineral assets.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, Kenya, and Madagascar remain central to global competition for critical minerals. Kenya's tender process demonstrates that African governments are playing a more active role in determining the conditions for extraction while global mining companies compete for access.

What to Watch

• Fighting in the Kordofan region and Blue Nile, particularly efforts to secure strategic logistical corridors, and international responses to the deteriorating humanitarian situation.

• Diplomatic engagement with Eritrea and Somalia and any security implications in the Red Sea.

• Progress in Kenya’s tender process for Mrima Hill and the response from local communities and international investors.

Americas

• In response to U.S. tariffs, Brazil has asked for consultations with the U.S. under the World Trade Organization's dispute settlement mechanism. The request highlights the use of international legal procedures to challenge economic coercion.

• The U.S. continues to expand its tariff regime, imposing new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners. The decision has drawn criticism and diplomatic responses from trading partners while reinforcing trade as a tool of economic competition.

•  The U.S. is considering funding programmes and initiatives to counter Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, with the approach potentially expanding to Africa and Asia. The initiative would focus on telecommunications, cybersecurity, and infrastructure projects in Central America and the Caribbean. 

Strategic Indicator 

▲ Increasing—Strategic competition through trade and investment.

The U.S. continues to expand tariffs on trade partners, affecting both traditional allies and competitors. Simultaneously, proposed investment initiatives suggest that the U.S. is aiming to counter Chinese influence through technology, economic, and diplomatic engagement across the Americas, with the approach potentially expanding to other continents.

What to Watch

• Progress in Brazil’s request for tariff consultation through the WTO dispute mechanism.

• International response to expanded U.S. tariffs.

• U.S. funding and investment announcements in telecommunications, cybersecurity, and infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere.

Asia Pacific

• The U.S., Japan, and the Philippines completed five days of maritime exercises in the South China Sea. The joint drills integrated warships, coast guard vessels, surveillance and fighter aircraft and took place shortly after the ASEAN Summit. The exercises demonstrate continued alliance building, interoperability, and deterrence in the South China Sea.

• Japan has identified medium ​and heavy rare earth elements following recent deep-sea exploration. The project forms part of Japan’s broader strategy to reduce dependency on Chinese critical mineral supply chains.

• Reports of a brief meeting between the Chinese and Japanese foreign ministers at the ASEAN Summit have led to public disagreement. Conflicting statements over whether the meeting took place reflect ongoing bilateral tension between the two states.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—Security and economic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

Security and economic competition continue as states strengthen security partnerships and reduce economic dependence. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea have placed the Philippines and China at the centre of maritime tensions, while joint military exercises involving the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines demonstrate continued security alignment and force projection. 

Japan’s deep-sea mining project also reflects its long-term strategy to reduce economic dependence on Chinese critical mineral supply chains.

What to Watch

• Further military exercises involving the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines alongside diplomatic statements from China.

• Progress in Japan’s deep-sea exploration and assessment of rare earth elements.

• Further diplomatic engagement and public statements between China and Japan.

Europe

• A Russian cruise missile reportedly struck Polish territory, prompting NATO allies to scramble aircraft. The incident drew diplomatic condemnation, reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to defence while highlighting the risk of conflict spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders. 

• Italy may access €14.9 billion through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative to support military defence spending. The decision requires parliamentary approval and also reflects wider efforts to strengthen Europe’s defence capability.

• EU sanctions have targeted third countries, with Georgia's Kulevi refinery receiving a transaction ban for processing Russian crude. The decision demonstrates EU efforts to prevent sanctions circumvention and pressure Russian energy revenues.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—European defence, resilience and economic security

Europe continues to strengthen its defence capabilities through funding mechanisms that encourage partners to increase defence spending. The reported Russian missile incident highlights the risk of the Ukraine conflict spilling beyond its borders and the importance of NATO’s collective defence. 

EU sanction expansions targeting third countries demonstrate continued efforts to reduce Russian revenue streams and sanctions circumvention. 

What to Watch

• NATO diplomatic responses and military activity following the reported missile incident. 

• Russian diplomatic statements regarding the reported missile entering Polish territory.

• Progress on the Italian Parliament’s decision on the €14.9 billion in funding through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative.

• Further EU sanctions targeting third countries involved in Russian energy and economic networks.

Middle East

• Reports indicate the Houthis may implement a toll-charging transit fee for commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If implemented, the decision would represent an attempt to institutionalise the Houthis' influence over maritime access in the Red Sea by combining military and economic coercion.

• Reports indicate that China has engaged with the Houthis regarding passage of Chinese-linked tankers through the Red Sea. While some China-bound tankers have passed through the Red Sea, the development may suggest that access could be influenced by political alignment rather than the principle of freedom of navigation. 

• Saudi Arabia claims the Houthis coordinated recent attacks against the country from Iraqi territory alongside Iran-backed armed groups. If confirmed, attacks launched from Iraq would demonstrate increasing operational integration among Iran-aligned armed groups.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing—Influence over Middle Eastern maritime security and regional proxy integration.

The Houthis' declaration of a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping, alongside proposals to implement transit fees, indicates increasing attempts to shape access in the Red Sea. Reports that Beijing engaged in talks with the Houthis to enable Chinese-linked ships to transit suggest that political alignment may become a condition for commercial access.

Separately, the Iran–Houthis alliance is not only shaping maritime space but also points to increasing operational integration among Iran-backed groups.

 What to Watch

• The Houthis' announcements of transit fees and conditions for passage in the Red Sea

• Commercial shipping data indicating continued transit of Chinese-linked tankers.

• Further attacks launched from Iraqi territory and responses from the U.S.–Saudi Arabia.

GL IN BRIEF | 24 July

Africa

• Namibia Critical Metals will invest in processing capacity to create greater value prior to refining. The project will produce rare earth carbonates and intermediate products, resulting in higher value-added production rather than mineral extraction alone.

• Conflict in the Sahel threatens the region's gold industry as mineral resources become increasingly intertwined with conflict financing and sustainment. Islamist groups target infrastructure, transport routes, and communities linked to gold production to degrade economic activity, while Chinese mining workers have also been targeted for kidnapping to generate revenue.

• A Nigerian LNG vessel has transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite continued Houthi threats. The transit does not indicate a return to normal shipping, with commercial traffic through the Red Sea remaining disrupted and crossings reportedly declining by approximately 30% in a single day.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing – Africa’s mineral value chain and competition over resources

Africa’s mineral sector is becoming intertwined with conflict, global supply chains, and industrial policy. Investment and agreements are supporting greater processing capacity and reducing reliance on mineral extraction, while insecurity in the Sahel threatens mining operations, resource production, and revenue streams.

What to Watch

• Investments and agreements in Africa for greater control of processing, particularly in Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Namibia.

• Further Islamist attacks on critical infrastructure and routes that sustain conflict in the Sahel. 

• European investment in African security and humanitarian assistance following Germany’s pledge of EUR 10 million towards security in Nigeria.

Americas

• Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega has stated there will no longer be elections in the country. After nearly two decades in power, Ortega positioned his government directly against the U.S. and opposition groups described as Somocistas. The move further consolidates authoritarian rule.

• Brazil has announced a USD 3.66 billion credit package as the third phase of a programme supporting companies impacted by U.S. tariffs. A separate U.S. investigation could result in an additional 12.5% tariff, raising the total on some products to 37.5%.

• Argentina’s credit rating is improving under economic reforms, with Moody’s upgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating to B3. The decision reflects confidence in Argentina’s fiscal position, investment environment, and export performance.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing – Political and economic divergence across the Americas

Political and economic trajectories are diverging across Latin America. Nicaragua is further consolidating authoritarian rule, while Argentina’s reforms are strengthening economic confidence and attracting investment. Brazil’s response to U.S. tariffs reflects increasing trade pressure and policy responses.

What to Watch

• U.S. diplomatic and economic responses to Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's declaration that Nicaragua will not hold elections.

• Brazil’s efforts to resolve trade disputes through international mechanisms and bilateral negotiations.

• The findings of the U.S. forced labour investigation into Brazil and the potential for additional tariffs.

Asia Pacific

• The Republic of Nauru will strengthen bilateral ties with Israel by opening an embassy in Jerusalem. The decision reflects how Pacific Island states are influencing geopolitical competition through diplomatic alignment.

• ASEAN foreign ministers have expressed concern about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on energy supplies. The bloc will also hold consultations on the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that U.S. cooperation with China would not be at the expense of regional allies and partners. Rubio reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to freedom of navigation and international law amid disputes between China’s coast guard and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing – Indo-Pacific diplomacy and energy security

ASEAN members are fast-tracking efforts to ratify an oil-sharing agreement to mitigate disruption from conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, diplomatic engagement, rearmament, and joint military exercises suggest a broader regional response to geopolitical competition and maritime disputes.

What to Watch

• Continued diplomatic engagement between ASEAN member states and Chinese ​Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

• Renewed regional efforts to advance conflict resolution in Myanmar.

• Foreign ministers' statements regarding freedom of navigation, territorial sovereignty, and the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling.
  

Europe

• The European Union announced its 21st sanctions package against Russia. The package targets Russia’s banking sector, with 94 financial institutions sanctioned and 32 banks disconnected from international payment systems such as SWIFT. The package also lowers the price cap on Russian oil to USD 44.10 per barrel, alongside asset freezes and travel and transaction bans on individuals.

• The EU has approved UK participation in the EUR 90 billion Ukraine Support Loan. The approval enables Ukraine to procure UK defence products, expanding its defence procurement base.

• Germany has approved Framatome to work with Russian state companies to produce nuclear fuel rods. Although Russian personnel will not be permitted at the facility, the approval highlights Europe’s ongoing exposure to the Russian nuclear sector and the selective nature of European sanctions.

• Russia reportedly struck the Ukrainian ​cities of Odesa and Chornomorsk, targeting port ‌infrastructure and vessels that sustain the Ukrainian military. The claims remain unverified but demonstrate Russia’s targeting of Ukraine's maritime logistics and Black Sea infrastructure.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing – European defence integration and economic pressure on Russia

The EU has expanded its sanctions on Russia while also deepening Ukraine’s defence procurement pool. European support is becoming more integrated through financing, sanctions, and procurement. Ongoing dependence on the Russian nuclear sector highlights that Europe’s economic and energy separation from Russia remains incomplete.

What to Watch

• The implementation and impact of the EU’s latest sanctions on Russia's financial sector.

• Russia's political and economic response to the EU's 21st sanction package.

• Ukraine's strategic defence procurement through the expanded European and UK industrial base.

• Further Russian strikes against Ukraine’s port and logistics infrastructure.

Middle East

• Yemen’s Houthi movement announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian-linked vessels in the Red Sea. The announcement was followed by attacks on two vessels attempting to transit the Red Sea, representing the first direct strikes since the blockade was declared. The Houthi blockade is beginning to shape commercial behaviour as regional risk increases.

• U.S. President Trump has stated that Iran will be held responsible for Houthi attacks and is considering a “massive attack.” The statement reinforces Washington’s assessment that the Houthi remain an Iranian proxy and increases the risk of direct U.S.–Iran confrontation.

• Oil prices rose above USD 100 per barrel in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and continued maritime disruption. The attacks reflect the Iran–Houthi strategy to impose economic pressure through threats and the targeting of oil tankers. Markets are increasingly pricing geopolitical risk, demonstrating how threats and limited attacks can have global financial repercussions.

• The U.S. has completed its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Targets have included maritime infrastructure, missile and drone storage ​facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defences.

Strategic Indicator

▲ Increasing – Maritime coercion and regional escalation

The U.S.–Iran conflict is extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, influencing maritime trade and global markets. The Houthi blockade and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels illustrate how commercial shipping is being used as leverage. Houthi threats and limited strikes have already influenced commercial shipping behaviour and increased commercial risk.

What to Watch

• Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the international response to increased risk in the Red Sea.

• U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iran in response to Houthi attacks.

• Oil markets and commercial insurance premium pricing reacting to increased risks in the Red Sea.

• Shipping data on volumes transiting the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.

• Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps response to U.S. infrastructure strikes.

GL IN BRIEF | 17 July

Africa

• G7 foreign ministers and the European Union's ​foreign policy chief issued a joint statement calling on the UN Security Council to expand the ​Darfur arms ​embargo ⁠to cover all of Sudan. The group also urged the Sudanese Armed Forces and allied armed groups to cease operations that could endanger civilians in the city of El-Obeid.

• A Reuters investigation linked companies that have held U.S. military and UN contracts to Boeing aircraft operating through key logistics hubs in Sudan used by the Rapid Support Forces. The RSF has been accused of committing genocide in the region.

• Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is targeting the logistics and transport infrastructure that sustains the Malian state. Attacks on supply convoys form part of a broader campaign of economic coercion, placing pressure on fuel and food supplies.

What to Watch 

• Continued diplomatic efforts to expand the Sudan arms embargo and increase humanitarian access.

• Diplomatic pressure on the United Arab Emirates over allegations of support for the RSF.

• The Malian government’s ability to secure transport corridors, protect supply convoys, and mitigate domestic fuel and food shortages.

Americas

• The U.S. has imposed new 25% tariffs on a range of Brazilian imports, taking effect on July 22 after unsuccessful negotiations. The decision has prompted political accusations between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Brazil's foreign affairs minister, while Brazil is preparing retaliatory measures.

• The White House has announced a new initiative bringing together AI developers and essential service providers to identify cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Advanced AI systems can discover weaknesses in software and infrastructure that could be exploited by malicious actors. The initiative will enable coordination between AI developers and government agencies to share information and coordinate responses to vulnerabilities affecting government systems.

• President Trump met Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and indicated that the U.S. would pursue economic agreements with Iraq, particularly in the oil sector. Washington is also expected to pressure the Iraqi government to disarm Iran-backed militia groups, which risks internal political and security disruption in Iraq.

What to Watch

• Brazil’s efforts to challenge the U.S. tariffs through the World Trade Organization dispute-settlement mechanism and any retaliatory tariff measures.

• The international response to the U.S. tariffs and their impact on Brazilian trade, domestic politics, and relations with Washington.

• U.S. troop withdrawals, economic investment, and pressure on Iraq to disarm Iran-backed militias.

Asia Pacific

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference, the ​East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting, and the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila. Chinese officials are also expected to attend, with preparations for a second summit between President Trump and Xi likely to be discussed.

• ASEAN members are expected to discuss key regional issues, including the conflict in Myanmar and negotiations on a South China Sea code of conduct following continued territorial tensions. Talks with rebel groups in Myanmar have been described as productive.

• Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has called for greater collective defence and increased defence spending for surveillance, coastal attack, and small surface drones as part of Taiwan’s asymmetric defence strategy.

• Papua New Guinea has closed Taipei's representative office, drawing praise from China. Taiwan only has formal diplomatic relations with three Pacific countries, Palau, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands, while continuing to operate a representative office in Fiji.

What to Watch

• Progress towards a second summit between Washington and Beijing.

• Joint ASEAN statements on the South China Sea, particularly references to international law and the Code of Conduct negotiations.

• Taiwan’s investment in drone capabilities and efforts to strengthen defence partnerships.

• Regional diplomatic responses to PNG’s decision to close Taipei’s representative office.

Europe 

• The European Union and Ukraine have established a joint venture combining Ukraine’s drone expertise with the EU’s industrial production capacity. The agreement forms part of the EU-Ukraine defence industrial partnership and includes plans to expand cooperation on anti-ballistic missile capabilities by 2028.

• French President Macron announced the formation of an integrated anti-ballistic missile coalition with Ukraine. Members include Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, ​the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, ‌Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The initiative aims to strengthen Europe’s collective missile defence capabilities.

• The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Estonia has raised concerns and uncertainty over Washington’s long-term position in Eastern Europe. U.S. troop rotations have also resulted in the withdrawal of approximately 1,000 troops from Lithuania. 

Watch

• Russian diplomatic and military responses to the European Union-Ukraine defence partnership. 

• Progress in EU-Ukraine drone production and the development of missile defence capabilities.

• U.S. troop deployments or withdrawals across the EU.

Middle East

• The U.S. and Iran continue to target critical infrastructure during the conflict. U.S. strikes have hit bridges and an airport in Iran, while Iran targeted a power and desalination ​plant in Kuwait. President Trump has not ruled out the use of ground forces, while Iran may continue attacks against infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states.

• Escalation between the U.S. and Iran has significantly disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with only three transits recorded on Thursday. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has indicated that no oil will transit the Strait while U.S. attacks continue. 

• A drone strike on Iraq’s Basra oil terminal temporarily suspended oil loadings, while Iran indicated the Houthis could target vessels or infrastructure in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of further disruption to regional maritime trade.  

What to Watch

• Further U.S. strikes against Iranian infrastructure and any deployment of additional naval or ground forces.

• Iranian attacks on critical infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and the regional diplomatic responses.

• Houthi strikes on vessels or infrastructure in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that could disrupt Red Sea shipping.

GL IN BRIEF | 11 July

Africa

• The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—continues to strengthen ties with Moscow. After cutting ties with France and Western partners, the AES is seeking to deepen military cooperation with Russia, including with Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps.

• The conflict between the Malian military and Islamist insurgents continues. The military claims to have broken a blockade around an army base in northern Mali. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) claims Malian forces were supported by troops from Niger and Burkina Faso.

• Mali and Algeria restored diplomatic ties after a year of diplomatic tensions following the downing of a Malian drone in Algerian airspace. The AES had withdrawn its ambassadors alongside Mali. Military and civilian airspace is reportedly being reopened, and ambassadors are expected to return to their posts.

• The World Bank has confirmed its partnership with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with USD 8 billion allocated for development projects.

Watch

• Deepening diplomatic and military ties between AES states, alongside closer collaboration with Moscow.

• Critical mineral agreements with the DRC following Belgium's release of geological archives.

• Anti-immigration protests escalating in South Africa.

Americas

• The “Shield of Americas," a security initiative established by the Trump administration, released a joint statement signed by the U.S., Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, ​Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad ⁠and Tobago. The statement expressed concern over attempts to cast doubts on the Colombian electoral process.

• The U.S. continues to develop its policy towards Latin America through the “Donroe Doctrine." The Pentagon outlined a strategy focused on combating narcotics trafficking and illegal migration, arguing that the U.S. defence strategy is linked to the everyday security concerns of citizens. 

• Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has asked the U.S. to delay proposed tariffs until after Brazil’s October election. He argued that the tariffs would benefit the current government, while critics have attributed the tariffs to Senator Bolsonaro’s relationship with the Trump administration.

Watch

• Expansion of U.S. security agreements in Latin America.

• U.S. trade measures and regional responses.

• Chinese infrastructure investments or development projects.

Asia Pacific

• Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan have prompted companies to warn of increasing supply chain risks. Beijing continues to restrict exports following tensions over Taiwan. Japan is seeking alternative supplies through partnerships with the U.S. while also facing rising aluminium prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

• The Philippines has rejected claims by Chinese academics that the Batanes Islands belong to China. Located 200 km from Taiwan, Chinese scholars claim the islands are an extension of Taiwan.

• The Commander of U.S.-Indo-Pacific Command has requested USD 122 billion to strengthen deterrence across the region against Chinese military expansion, risks to Taiwan, and cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

Watch

• Continued economic coercion through critical minerals.

• Chinese maritime activity around the east of Taiwan and the First Island Chain.

• Regional deterrence measures and defence investment.

Europe

• Leaders at the NATO Summit reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 collective defence and increased defence spending. NATO members also announced USD 70 billion in additional military support for Ukraine, while declaring that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and reaffirming the importance of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Ukraine is expected to receive a licence to produce its own Patriot missile interceptors domestically. The announcement by President Trump at the NATO Summit comes as Ukraine faces pressure on its air defence stockpiles.

• Russian missile and drone strikes hit apartment buildings in Kyiv ahead of the NATO Summit, killing at least 24 and wounding more than 100 people.

Watch

• Expansion and integration of NATO defence initiatives.

• Domestic production of Patriot missile interceptors in Ukraine.

• Russian long-range strikes on key Ukrainian cities.

• Ukraine strikes on Russian military and industrial targets.

Middle East

• President Trump advised that he expects Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon after discussions with Prime Minister Netanyahu. The comments follow a trilateral agreement between the U.S., Lebanon, and Israel in late June.

• The Israel-Lebanon agreement continues to face internal challenges. Israel has yet to complete its withdrawal, while tensions between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah remains. Efforts to disarm the terrorist group could contribute to domestic political divisions and violence.

• Maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. Commercial shipping data indicates vessels continue to transit the waterway; however, questions over transit routes and freedom of navigation persist.

Watch 

• Israeli troop movements in southern Lebanon.

• Interactions between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.

• Commercial shipping data through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating transit volumes and route selection.

• Iranian use of projectiles against commercial vessels as strategic leverage, and the U.S. response.

GL IN BRIEF | 5 July 2026

Africa

• Belgium's geological archives containing surveys of mineral deposits in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be made available to the DRC government. The DRC is estimated to hold approximately USD 24 trillion in mineral resources, including copper, cobalt, lithium, gold, and diamonds. U.S. company KoBold Metals has entered a strategic partnership with the DRC.

• South African anti-immigration protests led to the deployment of 3,400 troops to maintain public order. The unrest may test state capacity to respond to internal security challenges.

• Fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to create a humanitarian crisis. RSF drone attacks have targeted infrastructure in El Obeid. An Amnesty International report accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, while an independent UN report described the “hallmarks of genocide.” 

Watch

• Western expansion in critical mineral and infrastructure investments in the DRC. 

• Chinese diplomatic responses referencing the existing 2007 minerals-for-infrastructure deal with the DRC and Chinese investment in new mining agreements.

• Escalation in anti-immigration protests and clashes with government security forces in South Africa. 

• International efforts to coordinate humanitarian assistance and civilian corridors for safe passage in Sudan.

Americas

• The U.S. administration's temporary trade tariffs are set to expire on 24 July. New Section 301 tariffs may be introduced before existing measures expire. The tariffs form part of broader efforts to reshape global supply chains and strengthen domestic manufacturing.

• Keiko Fujimori was declared the winner of Peru’s presidential election by a slight margin. The result continues Latin America’s shift towards centre-right governments in response to economic and security challenges.

• A Peruvian court has ruled that the government should oversee the Chinese state-operated port of Chancay. The port operates as a strategic shipping hub between Asia and Latin America. The decision may increase government oversight of Chinese-operated infrastructure as U.S.-China competition increases in the region.

• The Mercosur trade bloc has entered into economic negotiations with Japan. A trade agreement would encompass 280 million people and a combined GDP of USD 3 trillion. Negotiations are likely to focus on critical minerals, technology, and the agricultural sector.

Watch

• Implementation of new Section 301 tariffs and international and domestic responses.

• Cabinet appointments and economic policy priorities of the new Peruvian government.

• Legal, security, and anti-crime legislation that could impact Chinese influence along with U.S. investment in regional infrastructure.

• Chinese diplomatic statements on Peruvian government oversight over the Port of Chancay.

• Negotiation developments in the Mercosur-Japan trade agreement, particularly on critical minerals and agriculture.

Asia Pacific

• China has launched new Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, describing them as “law enforcement patrols.” Taiwan has characterised the operations as lawfare, calling them an "illegal expansion of power in violation of international law and a ​disruption of regional stability."

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand. The visit will be part of wider engagement by India in the Asia-Pacific. India has agreed to supply arms to Indonesia, is one of Australia’s largest trading partners, and recently signed a trade agreement with New Zealand.

• Global financial firms are adopting a more cautious approach towards China and India. A survey by the Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA) and consultancy ​firm KPMG found competition among Asian financial centres has increased. Singapore remains the region’s leading financial hub, while South Korea has increased its position.

Watch

• Increased Chinese coast guard incursions east of Taiwan and international responses. 

• Expanded maritime coordination between Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. 

• Defence and trade statements during Prime Minister Modi’s regional visit.

• Foreign investment trends into Asia and financial market reactions.

Europe  

• NATO members have largely replaced U.S. reductions in the alliance’s defence plans following increased defence budgets by member states. One remaining gap is reported to be strategic bombers.

• The European Commission has announced five cross-border defence projects eligible for EU funding. The programme includes drone and counter-drone capabilities, integrated maritime defence, and projects aimed at improving coordination and addressing capability gaps. 

• Reports that China has trained Russian soldiers have led Germany to request talks with the Chinese ambassador. China has labelled the reports as unfounded.

• Reports have emerged of the U.S. warning Poland over a possible limited Russian incursion. Some reports indicated potential hybrid provocation, drone or missile strikes, or a small incursion into Polish territory under the guise of a GPS malfunction. The reports have suggested Russia may be aiming to test NATO resolve.

Watch

• Further information on Russian and Chinese military training links.

• Hybrid activity involving NATO’s Eastern Flank.

• Russian military activity in Kaliningrad or Belarus.

• NATO military posturing and statements towards Russia. 

Middle East

• The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Maritime data indicates commercial traffic is increasing, with vessels using two transit routes, one closer to Oman and the other to Iran. Recent projectile incidents targeting vessels prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iranian sites.

• The Israeli defence minister stated that Israeli forces will remain in designated security zones in Syria and Lebanon, with no withdrawal currently planned.

• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that peace in the region will require broader regional support and that Israel should not be allowed to “dynamite” the U.S.-Iran peace agreement.

• Turkey plans to increase cooperation with Pakistan in critical minerals, technology, and defence, alongside a bilateral trade target of USD 5 billion.

• OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The decision follows a gradual increase in commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.   

Watch

• Maritime shipping data indicating commercial transit volumes and routing in the Strait of Hormuz.

• U.S. statements regarding Israel’s presence in designated security zones.

• Iranian responses to increased oil production and any further attempts to influence commercial shipping through limited projectile attacks.

GL IN BRIEF | 26 JUNE 2026

Africa

• Niger has submitted a request to withdraw from the International Criminal Court, alongside Mali and Burkina Faso. 

• The decision follows Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso leaving the Economic Community of West African States and forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The group is forging closer military, economic, and foreign policy ties, cutting Western military ties, and allowing Russian mercenaries onto its territory.

• The JNIM terror group’s attack on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey, Niger, is the second attack on the airport this year. The jihadist group may be shifting strategy to expand operations to urban areas to target critical infrastructure.

• The International Monetary Fund has committed to supporting sub-Saharan Africa due to difficulties caused by the Middle East conflict. The IMF has already accelerated and augmented funding to some nations.

Watch

• The ICC, AU, and ECOWAS responses to Niger's request to leave the ICC.

• Further political, economic, and military integration within AES members and cooperation with Russia.

• JNIM’s targeting of Chinese mine workers through kidnapping and extortion.

• CCP diplomatic or security responses to targeting of Chinese mine workers

Americas

• The U.S. continues diversifying critical mineral supply chains following reports of an agreement with Kenya.

• NATO plans to increase security in the Arctic and High North. Around 30,000 troops participated in Exercise Arctic Sentry, simulating the defence of NATO’s northern flank against an eastern threat.

• Venezuela is managing two major earthquakes that forced the closure of the Caracas airport. Early assessments project the death toll to exceed 10,000. 

Watch

• G7 and the U.S. seeking critical mineral agreements with emerging economies.

• Russian diplomatic statements or signalling in response to NATO defence increases and Arctic drills

Asia Pacific

• The Chinese Communist Party has passed the Ethnic Unity Law, which comes into effect on 1 July. A clause in the law allows for individuals or groups to be held accountable for undermining "ethnic unity and progress or inciting ethnic separatism." Critics argue the law could provide a legal basis to pursue individuals abroad.

• Western governments, including the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany, have raised concerns over Chinese Coast Guard activity east of Taiwan.

• Taiwan has conducted a simulation to counter a potential CCP maritime blockade. The simulation included a coast guard law enforcement response and military drills.

• North Korea commissioned its largest warship as part of naval capabilities, with reports it is capable of carrying nuclear weapons. A second destroyer is also planned with no date announced.

Watch

• Chinese coast guard grey-zone activity around Taiwan and the Philippines.

• Diplomatic responses to the CCP’s Ethnic Unity Law.

• Future North Korean naval expansion and missile integration.

Europe

• NATO allies have increased defence spending substantially, demonstrating greater burden sharing. Rutte stated Europe and Canada have committed an additional US$1.2 trillion in defence spending since Trump first took office.

• Ukraine continues to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia targeting energy and military infrastructure. The Moscow oil refinery was hit, with reports indicating it could take six months to repair. 

• Ukrainian strikes have reportedly contributed to oil product shortages, price increases, and long queues in Russia.

• The EU announced at the Ukraine Recovery Conference the first disbursement of €3.2 billion under the Ukraine Support Loan. A further €1.1 billion was allocated under the Ukraine Investment Framework to support recovery, reconstruction, and investment. 

Watch

• Continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy, military infrastructure, and targets in Crimea.

• Russia's conventional and drone strikes in response to Ukrainian long-range attacks.

• Russian diplomatic statements on NATO defence increase.

• NATO summit announcements on defence industry contracts, spending, and military technological investments.

Middle East

• Transits through the Strait of Hormuz increased but remain disrupted, with the IRGC reportedly issuing conditions and routing instructions to commercial vessels. Reports indicate a projectile struck a vessel, prompting the International Maritime Organization to suspend the planned evacuation of 11,000 seafarers.

• Israel remains in Lebanon, with a senior official stating there would be no withdrawal from the buffer zone. The reports contrast with earlier statements by the U.S. State Department that Israel had withdrawn from part of its buffer zone.

• Yemen’s Houthis have stated that they will target any Israeli presence in the breakaway region of Somaliland should military cooperation between Israel and Somaliland proceed.

Watch

• Continued disruption or conditional access in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Israeli troop movements and the status of Israel’s buffer zone inside Lebanese territory.

• Houthi military activity in the Red Sea or on Israeli-linked assets.
  

GL IN BRIEF | 20 JUNE 2026

Africa

• The U.S. is reportedly close to signing a critical mineral agreement with Kenya to process  minerals domestically.

• The move is a continuation of U.S. efforts to secure critical minerals globally, signalling competition for African resources may increase between Western countries and China.

• Somaliland and Israel are forging closer ties, with Israel set to train police and military, with potential economic deals tabled.

• Somaliland’s geographical location is of strategic importance opposite Yemen and near the Red Sea maritime route.

Watch

• Somali and Yemeni responses to potential Israel-Somaliland cooperation

• Developments in security, economic, and industrial agreements between Israel and Somaliland.

Asia Pacific

• The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee approved a proposal to include Taiwan and the Philippines under the First Island Security Cooperation Initiative (FISCI). The defence plan authorised $1.5 billion in assistance for Taiwan and the Philippines.

• The Philippines appears to be an important U.S. strategic partner with the inclusion in the FISCI funding assistance, which follows $2.5 billion of U.S. funds in December 2025.

• The U.S. approved a war reserve stockpile program for Taiwan, which allows military supplies to be made available. 

• Taiwan continues to face delays for delivery of the previously approved U.S. arms sale. The issue may provide insights into the U.S. administration's stance towards Taiwan after the U.S.-China state visit.

Watch

• Chinese Communist Party statements on the FISCI referencing international law, territorial sovereignty, and military build-up.

• Developments in the U.S.-Taiwan arms deliveries. 

Europe

• Ukraine continues to conduct strikes on Russian infrastructure linked to sustaining its military operations, including energy and production facilities.

• President Zelenskiy is strengthening political partnerships, meeting with world leaders recently at the G7 summit along with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU leaders.

• The United Kingdom allocated £210 million, and the Netherlands announced a €500 million euro defence package for Ukraine.

• The EU, UK, and Canada expanded sanctions on shadow fleet vessels and service providers, financial institutions, and military technology, indicating efforts to target systems that support Russia's military capabilities.

Watch

• Russia’s response to sanctions with more armed escorts, 

• Additional Russian conventional strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, military, and civilian targets following recent Ukrainian strikes.

Middle East

• The IRGC announced the closure of the strait of Hormuz despite agreed-upon negotiations with the U.S. The reason for the closure has been linked to ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

• Vice-President Vance is flying to Switzerland to meet with Iranian negotiators for technical discussions.

• Both Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of breaking the ceasefire. Israeli leadership reportedly ordered a ceasefire in Lebanon, but forces will remain in position with no withdrawal signalled.

Watch

• Continued Iranian disruption of the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran seeks to monetise and leverage access during negotiations.

• U.S.-Iran negotiations and the conditions referencing the conflict in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz.

• The Israeli response to the outcome of negotiations and U.S. stipulations regarding the conflict with Hezbollah.

GL IN BRIEF | 17 APRIL 2026

Middle East

• The Strait of Hormuz remains a controlled disruption zone. Iran continues to shape access through risk and ambiguity.

• The U.S. has created a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains under the threshold of conflict.

• A fragile ceasefire continues to hold, with military posturing and political signaling shaping Hormuz.
  

Asia Pacific

• China is shaping access to the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea through militia vessels and coastguard incursions. 

• Satellite imagery shows Chinese naval vessels positioned at the entrance to the Shoal in an obstruction strategy.

• The Philippines has accused Chinese fishermen of poisoning waters around the Spratly Islands. The Philippine Navy reported confiscating cyanide from Chinese fishing boats.

Europe

• Britain and France push for security discussions on Hormuz, with the French defence minister indicating Europe has capacity to assist with naval escorts and mine-clearing.

• Russia is targeting Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure, indicating an economic degradation strategy.

Watch

• Maritime flows in the Strait of Hormuz and how the U.S. responds to states attempting transit.

• Chinese grey-zone maritime activities and diplomatic pressure on the Philippines around the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.

GL IN BRIEF | 28 March 2026

• Iran continues its disruption strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, enabling selective access and limited transit.

• The disruption strategy applies economic pressure while staying below the direct conflict threshold.

• The transit reportedly followed a route between Larak and Qeshm Island, with vessels passing close to missile bases and a surveillance checkpoint.

• The Iranian selective corridor poses a risk to oil tankers due to the water depth of under 25 m, suggesting the route may not relieve oil supply challenges. 

• The arrival of two amphibious assault ships carrying roughly 5,000 Marines suggests a strategic shift in posture from immediate escort deployments to amphibious operations.

Watch

• Airstrikes on strategic terrain such as Kharg, Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb, and the coast of Hormuz. 

• The arrival of the 82nd Airborne in the Gulf.