GL in Brief | 17 april 2026
Middle East
The Strait of Hormuz remains a controlled disruption zone. Iran continues to shape access through risk and ambiguity.
The U.S. has created a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains under the threshold of conflict.
A fragile ceasefire continues to hold, with military posturing and political signaling shaping Hormuz.
Asia Pacific
China is shaping access to the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea through militia vessels and coastguard incursions.
Satellite imagery shows Chinese naval vessels positioned at the entrance to the Shoal in an obstruction strategy.
The Philippines has accused Chinese fishermen of poisoning waters around the Spratly Islands. The Philippine Navy reported confiscating cyanide from Chinese fishing boats.
Europe
Britain and France push for security discussions on Hormuz, with the French defence minister indicating Europe has capacity to assist with naval escorts and mine-clearing.
Russia is targeting Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure, indicating an economic degradation strategy.
Watch
Maritime flows in the Strait of Hormuz and how the U.S. responds to states attempting transit.
Chinese grey-zone maritime activities and diplomatic pressure on the Philippines around the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.
GL in Brief | 28 March 2026
Iran continues its disruption strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, enabling selective access and limited transit.
The disruption strategy applies economic pressure while staying below the direct conflict threshold.
The transit reportedly followed a route between Larak and Qeshm Island, with vessels passing close to missile bases and a surveillance checkpoint.
The Iranian selective corridor poses a risk to oil tankers due to the water depth of under 25 m, suggesting the route may not relieve oil supply challenges.
The arrival of two amphibious assault ships carrying roughly 5,000 Marines suggests a strategic shift in posture from immediate escort deployments to amphibious operations.
Watch
Airstrikes on strategic terrain such as Kharg, Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb, Greater Tunb, and the coast of Hormuz.
The arrival of the 82nd Airborne in the Gulf.