Indonesia’s Partnership Building: Free, Active and Untested.
Indonesia continues to manage its “free and active” foreign policy while building regional security partnerships. As these relationships deepen, their operationalisation may place additional pressure on Indonesia’s strategic autonomy.
Reciprocal Economic Warfare in the Black Sea
Black Sea economic warfare continues, with Russia indicating an expansion of operations against Ukraine's economic sectors after a failed truce proposal. Ukraine’s strikes targeting Russian Black Sea terminals have reduced Russia’s oil exports, while Russia’s attacks against Ukraine’s ports and agriculture-linked vessels escalated significantly in July.
Middle East Military Pressure Tests U.S. Indo-Pacific Deterrence and Burden Sharing
The redeployment of the USS George Washington highlights the challenges the U.S. faces in maintaining a persistent presence of high-end capabilities across multiple theatres. Regional partners may also view the redeployment as evidence of why greater defence burden sharing is required.
Saudi Arabia's Security Diversification: An Alliance with a NATO Member and Nuclear Power
Saudi Arabia is broadening its military partnerships through overlapping regional security guarantees. The inclusion of Pakistan, a nuclear power, and Turkey, a NATO member, creates strategic ambiguity as to how the mutual defence will be operationalised
Sanctions and Adaptation: How Sanctions Competition Is Evolving
Western sanctions are increasingly targeting Russia's energy logistical networks alongside its energy exports. Russia's expanding LNG transport network suggests the country anticipated further Western sanctions and implemented adaptation measures to preserve energy flows.
U.S. Investment Highlights Shift Towards Critical Mineral Supply Chain Resilience
The U.S. is expanding domestic critical mineral processing capacity to reduce its dependence on China. The White Mesa Mill expansion highlights a broader shift towards integrated critical mineral supply chains, industrial processing, and national security.
Red Sea Shipping Data Indicates Commercial Disruption Following Houthi Attacks
Latest shipping data indicates Houthi attacks are influencing commercial shipping behaviour in the Red Sea. Although attacks have been limited, reduced transit volumes suggest threats alone are sufficient to alter commercial decision-making without requiring control of Bab al-Mandeb.
China’s Critical Mineral Processing Leverage Against Europe
China's announcement that it would impose bans on 14 European companies suggests its leverage of critical mineral sanctions is expanding beyond previous disputes with the U.S. and Japan.
Houthi Threats Begin to Disrupt Commercial Shipping in the Red Sea
Commercial shipping behaviour does not indicate that the Houthis have established control over Bab al-Mandeb. Rather, it suggests their threats are already influencing routing decisions and increasing commercial risk.
DR Congo Becomes Africa’s First Lithium Exporter to China
The first lithium shipment from Africa indicates that China's diversification strategy in the DR Congo is now evolving from investment to production.
From Military Support towards Defence Integration
Europe's role supporting Ukraine is evolving from supplying military aid and equipment towards closer defence integration.
The Australia–Indonesia Treaty on Common Security
The significance of the Jakarta Treaty will be determined by how it is operationalised. Its value will be demonstrated by the extent to which it generates sustained practical cooperation.