Red Sea Insecurity Tests Europe’s Maritime Security Capacity and Response
STRATEGIC QUESTION
How are increasing threats to Red Sea shipping testing Europe’s capacity to protect its maritime trade?
KEY JUDGEMENTS
Increasing maritime insecurity may require greater EU naval resources to reinforce the ASPIDES mission in the region.
The EU maritime-security mission reveals an uneven response, with individual member states willing to respond faster to increasing threats in response to challenges to EU coordination.
Disruption in the Gulf is shifting the ASPIDES mission beyond upholding international law to include strengthening economic and supply-chain resilience.
BACKGROUND
In 2024, the European Union launched EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, a maritime security operation in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The operation’s defensive mandate was to uphold freedom of navigation in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea under the EU Common Security and Defence Policy by protecting merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandab Strait, Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf of Aden, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean.
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
Ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has applied pressure on the EU’s ASPIDES mission. With six ships currently operating in the region, the EU’s foreign policy chief has stated that the increased maritime risk would require more than ten warships. Continued disruption and the uncertainty of the operating environment, alongside the rapid territorial advance of the Houthis, have complicated and constrained EU capacity in the region, leading to calls for an increase in the number of naval vessels. The extent of the maritime zone, coupled with the risk, may restrict Operation ASPIDES’ ability to provide protection to commercial vessels.
The speed at which the Houthis advanced along the Red Sea coast has led to calls for a stronger EU naval presence. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto stated that the mission needed more ships, singling out current efforts by Italy and Greece, and that the Italian Navy was preparing its own naval mission for the region. Italian statements and willingness to respond highlight challenges in the EU response, which Minister Crosetto has stated is hampered by EU bureaucracy. This also raises questions about the ability of the current EU ASPIDES mission to respond while exposing limitations of collective EU burden-sharing. Individual member states may respond; however, that may suggest that EU maritime security operations still require voluntary contributions from member states, especially under circumstances that require immediate responses to increased threats and particularly from states that have the capacity.
Providing vessel protection escorts requires significant resources, with some taking two days per vessel. If both demand for protection and risk increase, then the demand for protected escorts could rise faster than ASPIDES can provide. This also poses the challenge of how to prioritise protection escorts. Without protection, there could be an economic impact through additional insurance costs, decreased supplies and higher freight costs, alongside rerouting. Due to uncertainty, it is also not clear how many naval vessels are required to mitigate risks in the region. The ASPIDES mission may increasingly become one that includes European economic security and supply-chain resilience to ensure trade continues, rather than solely an operation intended to uphold international law.
WHAT TO WATCH
Individual EU member states’ contributions of resources or diplomatic statements.
European High Representative Kaja Kallas’ statements on resource allocations for the expansion of the ASPIDES mission.
Requests from shipping operators for increased protective escorts.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
European Maritime Security Pressure
▲ Increasing
Demand for Red Sea Protective Escorts
▲ Increasing
EU Naval Resource Commitments
↔ Mixed
SOURCES
European External Action Service — EUNAVFOR ASPIDES
EEAS source
International Reporting and Analysis
Reuters — EU's Kallas Says Red Sea Mission Needs More Than 10 Warships
Reuters source
Reuters — Italy's Minister Calls for More Ships to Protect Red Sea Navigation
Reuters source
ANSA — Italian Frigate Escorts Italian Merchant Vessel in Bab el-Mandeb
ANSA source