Saudi-Backed Offensive Aims to Counter the Houthi Maritime Threat
STRATEGIC QUESTION
How does the Saudi-backed counteroffensive change the contest for control of the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping routes?
KEY JUDGEMENTS
Restoring maritime security in Bab el-Mandeb will require Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces to hold the Dhubab district and significantly diminish or remove the Houthi presence.
Saudi Arabia has coordinated with Yemeni government forces alongside its defence partner Pakistan, suggesting the Kingdom is seeking a limited partner-based intervention. The increasing operationalisation of defence cooperation with Pakistan may also provide greater military capabilities.
The Saudi-backed counterattack may face operational limitations in achieving strategic objectives by relying on Yemeni forces with factional divisions, which could be tested as the conflict becomes prolonged.
BACKGROUND
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have reportedly launched “Operation Dawn of Yemen", a counteroffensive against Houthi positions in order to recapture lost territory. Yemeni troops were supported by the Saudi air force as the fighting reportedly expanded across several frontlines. Saudi air support aims to assist Yemeni troops to push the Houthis out of key positions to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. Government troops have recaptured parts of Dhubab district overlooking Bab el-Mandeb.
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
Yemeni government forces have captured parts of the Dhubab district, which is a strategic coastal region along the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. Control of the Dhubab district would strengthen the position of government forces around the commercial shipping route through Bab el-Mandeb and could reduce the risk posed to transits and the Houthis’ ability to leverage attacks against commercial shipping. Territorial losses in the region alone would not remove the threat to commercial shipping; government forces and allies would need to either significantly reduce the Houthi presence or remove them from the district, which poses an additional challenge in efforts to restore freedom of navigation.
The Saudi response suggests a coordinated targeted operation as opposed to reengaging in a wider conflict. Rather than solely a defensive posture or engaging in diplomatic channels, the Kingdom has sought a small collaborative grouping involving Pakistan and Yemeni government forces in an effort to reduce the Houthi threat to key commercial shipping routes. Allies have reportedly supplied logistical support and Pakistani military equipment, including light artillery, air defence systems, drones and anti-drone systems, to Aden alongside reports of 30,000 to 40,000 Pakistani troops to strengthen Saudi land borders. The military operation suggests some coordination between Saudi allies and an emergence of limited operationalisation of its defence partnership with Pakistan. Although a successful military campaign could reduce risks to commercial shipping, it also may result in a greater Houthi response against Saudi critical infrastructure.
Simultaneously, incursions into the Dhubab district rely heavily on a cohesive Yemeni force facing a determined Houthi militia, increasing the risk of escalation and prolonged conflict. The conflict in Yemen remains in a stalemate, and further constraints inside the Yemeni forces, such as operational weaknesses and divisions between Yemeni factions, may mean that prolonged pressure will expose these limitations. Despite this, Saudi air power during Operation ‘Dawn of Yemen' reportedly involved 100 fighter jets, providing an operational advantage which could be further strengthened with Pakistani support. The Houthis will also be aware of the strategic importance of holding the Dhubab district, which may lead to determined resistance and a conflict that could undermine the objective of restoring maritime security in Bab el-Mandeb.
WHAT TO WATCH
Continued territorial gains by Yemeni government forces in the Dhubab district alongside air support from Saudi Arabia.
Pakistani and Turkish diplomatic responses regarding support for Saudi Arabia.
Statements from Yemeni government forces regarding military objectives and signs of divisions between participating factions.
Houthi military responses, including a counteroffensive, strikes against commercial shipping or Saudi critical infrastructure.
A diplomatic or military response from Iran.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
Conflict in Yemen
Increasing ▲
Saudi Arabia’s Effort to Enforce Freedom of Navigation
Increasing ▲
Saudi–Pakistan Defence Cooperation
Increasing ▲
Maritime Security in Bab el-Mandeb
Mixed ↔
SOURCES
International Reporting and Analysis
Reuters — Saudis Plan Assault on Houthis to Break Red Sea Chokehold
Reuters source
Reuters — Yemeni Government Launches Offensive to Seize Areas From Houthis
Reuters source
Reuters — Houthis Say They Attacked Saudi Aramco Facility With Missiles and Drones
Reuters source
Türkiye Today — Yemeni Forces Claim Bab el-Mandeb, Dhubab Under ‘Dawn of Yemen’ Push
Türkiye Today source