Ukraine’s Long-Range Strikes Make Russia Turn Inward
STRATEGIC QUESTION
How are Ukraine’s long-range strikes increasing pressure on Russia’s energy infrastructure and homeland defence?
KEY JUDGEMENTS
Ukraine's sustained long-range sanctions strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure are imposing economic costs for repairs, government subsidies for oil companies, and declining government oil and gas revenue.
Drone strikes across Russia against military-industrial facilities, logistics hubs, naval bases and energy infrastructure create challenges for Russia’s limited air-defence resources.
Ukraine’s long-range strikes may constrain Russia’s economy and military as it balances funding for defensive resources, infrastructure repairs and air-defence systems while trying to maintain frontline operations.
BACKGROUND
Ukraine launched strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in Moscow as part of its long-range sanctions campaign. Reports suggest a major refinery was struck during the drone attack on the capital, causing damage that could take weeks to repair. Ukraine's long-range strike capacity has developed, increasing Ukraine’s ability to target Russia’s energy infrastructure, with a Russian refinery reportedly being struck once every three days during the first eight months of 2026. Primary and secondary crude oil processing units have been targeted in Russia, with reports of individual facilities being struck 15 times since 2022. Ukraine has managed to strike targets approximately 2,500 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, giving Ukraine greater reach inside of Russia.
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
Ukraine has used its long-range strike capacity to target Russia’s energy infrastructure with increased frequency, putting Russia’s fuel supply chain under greater pressure. Repeated targeting of energy infrastructure has disrupted Russia’s refining capacity and fuel supplies for military and domestic consumption. Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure not only impose repair costs but also add economic pressure to Russia’s energy sector. Russia has had to provide subsidies to oil companies as government revenue from oil and gas declined 17% between January and August, while also seeing its budget deficit rise 150% year-on-year. Ukraine’s long-range sanctions are not only aiming to reduce fuel supplies to the Russian military but also to inflict economic costs.
Beyond reducing energy supplies and imposing economic costs, Russia is also having to disperse its air-defence resources. Ukraine has managed to strike targets across Russian territory close to the borders of Finland, Georgia and Kazakhstan, with oil refineries, factories and naval bases being struck. The diverse targets and the spread of locations pose a challenge to Russian military decision-making about which targets remain a priority to defend with finite air-defence resources. Economic impacts on Russia are not solely through repairs or reduced energy capacity but also through increased funding for air-defence systems, with Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov increasing taxes and borrowing additional funding to finance the deficit.
A continued long-range Ukrainian sanctions campaign could create strategic constraints on Russia, as it addresses multiple internal challenges. Rather than concentrate on military advances in Ukraine and allocate funds to the frontline, Russia may be required to continue to strengthen air defences sufficiently across the country to protect energy infrastructure, logistics hubs, naval bases, warehouses and military-industrial factories. Although Russia may continue to repair refineries, the cumulative impact of repeated strikes may have wider effects on Russia’s economy and ability to supply the frontline.
WHAT TO WATCH
Continued Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and military sites inside Russia.
The outcome of the meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky and subsequent diplomatic statements.
Russian diplomatic and military responses to Ukraine’s long-range sanctions strikes.
Russian economic and energy data indicating effects of Ukrainian drone strikes.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Economy and Energy Infrastructure
▲ Increasing
Pressure on Russian Homeland Air Defence
▲ Increasing
SOURCES
International Reporting and Analysis
Reuters — Moscow Oil Refinery Output Halted After Drone Attack
Reuters source
Reuters — Half of Russia's Top Diesel-Producing Refineries Cut Output After Drone Strikes
Reuters source
Reuters — Russia's 2026 Budget Deficit and Increased Air-Defence Spending
Reuters source
International Energy Agency — Russian Refining Sector Struggles Amid Intensifying Ukrainian Attacks
IEA source
Interfax — Russian Oil Companies Receive Fuel-Damper Payments
Interfax source