Saudi–Houthi Escalation Testing Defence Alliances and Partnerships
STRATEGIC QUESTION
How is the Saudi–Houthi escalation testing regional collective-defence arrangements and alliances?
KEY JUDGEMENTS
An escalation of Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia has tested the operational readiness of the MECCA Agreement. MECCA partners may avoid direct military intervention to limit the risk of regional escalation, choosing to provide other security measures such as air defence, intelligence, logistics, technical support or equipment.
U.S.–Saudi military cooperation is being tested with the U.S. declining to renew direct military action against the Houthis; however, it is providing intelligence and targeting.
Houthi attacks are testing whether Saudi security alliances and partnerships will translate diplomatic commitments into operational support, particularly the MECCA Agreement joint defence provision.
CORE ASSESSMENT
The Houthis' attack on Riyadh signals an escalation beyond the Houthis' territorial gains towards critical infrastructure. With the missile attack reaching further inside Saudi Arabia, the recently signed Mecca Joint Defence Agreement may face increasing pressure to respond operationally to demonstrate the agreement is more than diplomatic solidarity. Under the trilateral defence pact, Turkey’s Foreign Minister has indicated that Turkey was willing to support Saudi Arabia’s military and technical needs, while Pakistan has stated that no discussions have been held about military intervention but would respond when the time comes. Simultaneously, the Houthis have warned countries against involvement in the conflict, stating that the group is not targeting states other than Saudi Arabia.
BACKGROUND
The escalation in Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia follows increased fighting between Yemeni government-aligned forces and the Houthis, which led to a rapid Houthi advance to capture territory along the Red Sea coast. Saudi Arabia has supported efforts to counter Houthi gains, resulting in increased tension between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. Territorial gains by the Houthis have included the capture of critical geographical points of Mocha and the Hanish Islands, allowing the group greater ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis have targeted Saudi energy exports and infrastructure, striking Red Sea shipping, while the wider conflict also disrupted the East–West Pipeline. The Houthis also fired a ballistic missile towards King Khalid International Airport, which was intercepted, although smoke was recorded in the vicinity.
Saudi Arabia has regional partners and military alliances, although there has been no external intervention or joint response. The MECCA Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, signed six weeks ago, contains a mutual defence provision which considers an attack on one of the signatories an attack on all three; however, the provision has yet to result in a joint military response. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have maintained a strategic alliance and cooperation through joint military operations and U.S. support for training, logistics, counter-terrorism, and weapons sales, yet the U.S. has avoided renewed military intervention against the Houthis since an earlier ceasefire in 2025.
STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT
The Houthi military escalation against Saudi Arabia has applied pressure on the MECCA Agreement to demonstrate military credibility. Operationalisation requires significant planning, coordination, and logistics, and with the trilateral agreement signed only six weeks ago, the defence pact has had limited time to develop operational military integration. Despite not being fully integrated, Turkey has signalled an early willingness to provide military support and demonstrate that the MECCA Agreement is more than diplomatic, while Pakistan has taken a more cautious approach. It is also unclear if Saudi Arabia has appealed directly to the trilateral members, making it difficult to assess what threshold may prompt a collective response under the agreement.
Assistance from partners may not necessarily be in the form of direct military intervention but through other security measures such as air defence, intelligence, logistics, technical support or equipment. Recent statements from MECCA partners also suggest that these responses may not yet be joint or coordinated. Any direct military intervention may also risk escalating regional tension, so MECCA partners may need to assess whether recent Houthi strikes have crossed a threshold requiring a response and what form that response should take.
Reports last week suggested that Saudi Arabia sought renewed U.S. military strikes against the Houthis, indicating reliance on traditional partners alongside the MECCA Agreement. However, the U.S. maintained its current position, avoiding renewed direct military action against the Houthis while remaining willing to provide intelligence and targeting support. While the attacks against Saudi targets have continued, the absence of direct military intervention may indicate that MECCA partners and the U.S. do not yet consider the attacks to have reached a level that requires such a response. For Saudi Arabia, the U.S. response may place increasing importance on the MECCA Agreement for security guarantees as the U.S. remains reluctant to become directly involved against the Houthis.
The Kingdom has sought to diversify its defence partnerships, including through closer ties with Turkey and Pakistan. Rather than replace the U.S. as a security partner, these partnerships may supplement Saudi Arabia’s existing relationship with Washington. The U.S.–Saudi F-35 deal awaiting Congressional approval also indicates continued defence cooperation, given the significance of a potential sale of fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
The Houthis may be testing Saudi partnerships through limited attacks. The Houthis’ warning of third-country involvement places pressure on Saudi partners to translate political commitments into operational support and risk widening the conflict, or not respond and risk exposing the defence agreements as limited diplomatic partnerships. As some attacks against the Kingdom have originated from Iraq, Saudi partners may be hesitant to directly intervene due to the risk of becoming involved in a wider regional conflict. Beyond direct intervention, Saudi partners may provide logistics, joint planning, air-defence support and intelligence sharing. For the Houthis, the objective may not necessarily be to defeat Saudi alliances but to test them.
WHAT TO WATCH
Continued Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia targeting energy and critical infrastructure.
Responses from MECCA Agreement partners including diplomatic statements and military support.
U.S. diplomatic statements and changes in position if Houthi strikes escalate or cause disruption in the Red Sea.
Saudi requests for military intervention from partners.
Evidence of MECCA Agreement operationalisation, including joint planning, intelligence sharing, logistics and air-defence support.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
Disruption of Saudi Arabian Energy Exports and Attacks on Critical Infrastructure
▲ Increasing
Operationalisation of the MECCA Agreement
↔ Mixed
U.S.–Saudi Military Cooperation
↔ Mixed
SOURCES
International Reporting and Analysis
Reuters — Flames, Smoke Seen Near Riyadh Airport; Houthis Claim Attacks on Saudi Capital
Reuters source
Reuters — Turkey Says It Could Help Meet Saudi Military Needs Under Defence Pact
Reuters source
Reuters — Pakistan Says No Military Response Discussed Under Mecca Pact Over Houthi Attacks on Saudi Arabia
Reuters source
Reuters — Saudi Crown Prince Sought U.S. Military Help from Trump with Houthis, Sources Say
Reuters source
Reuters — U.S. Clears Way for $24.3 Billion Fighter Jet Sale to Saudi Arabia
Reuters source
Reuters — Houthi Red Sea Offensive Elevates Yemeni Commander’s Standing
Reuters source
Reuters — Iran and U.S. Trade Threats After Houthi Attacks Escalate Regional Conflict
Reuters source
Associated Press — Iran-Backed Houthi Rebels Warn Against Joining Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s Growing Civil War
Associated Press source
Associated Press — Saudis Seek Allies’ Help as Missile Defences Run Low in Fight with Houthis
Associated Press source
Official Sources
Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs — Joint Statement of the Strategic Political and Defence Committee of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs source
U.S. Department of State — U.S. Security Cooperation with Saudi Arabia
U.S. Department of State source
U.S. Department of State — Kingdom of Saudi Arabia – F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter Aircraft
U.S. Department of State source