Deep-Sea Mining: U.S.–China Critical Minerals Competition Expands

STRATEGIC QUESTION

Could deep-sea mining become a new front in U.S.–China critical-mineral competition?

KEY JUDGEMENTS

• The U.S. critical minerals diversification strategy is expanding beyond terrestrial resources into deep-sea exploration, potentially increasing upstream supply sources.

• Deep-sea exploration may provide greater critical mineral access and extraction; however, China maintains dominance in processing capacity, which upstream supply will not reduce in the short term.

• China holds five International Seabed Authority exploration contracts, with the U.S. using its own domestic framework to develop seabed resources. U.S.–China competition may expand into seabed resources, extraction and governance, as the U.S. pathway offers an alternative to the ISA framework.

CORE ASSESSMENT

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced that permits for deep-sea mining could be approved in months as the Trump administration continues to pursue its critical minerals strategy of greater supply chain independence. Applications filed include an exploration license and commercial recovery permit by The Metals Company, a Canadian critical minerals company developing deep-seabed mineral resources for use across sectors including batteries, energy, defence, infrastructure and manufacturing. The White House’s executive order in April 2025 on offshore critical minerals and resources specifically identified the need to counter China’s influence over seabed mineral resources.

BACKGROUND

Deep-sea mining extraction provides critical mineral resources such as manganese, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earth elements crucial for defence systems, batteries, medical devices and advanced technologies. Supply chain access to critical minerals is an economic security issue and also a matter of national security, with the Department of War allocating funding to increase processing capacity.

The U.S. is not a party to the Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC), under which the International Seabed Authority regulates mineral-related activities in the international seabed Area. Instead, the U.S. authorises deep seabed mining through its domestic framework. Exploration licences and commercial recovery permits are issued under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), which allows companies to recover polymetallic nodules containing manganese, nickel, copper and cobalt from the deep seabed beyond the limits of national jurisdiction. Within national jurisdiction, authority for offshore mining is granted under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. Current permit applications are considered under this framework.

Unlike the U.S., China is a party to UNCLOS and currently holds five exploration contracts according to the International Seabed Authority. Exploration contracts cover polymetallic nodules, polymetallic sulphides and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts, but do not grant extraction. The U.S. executive order and recent permit announcements highlight increasing critical mineral competition between the U.S. and China.

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

The current U.S. administration has sought a critical minerals strategy of greater diversification and supply chain resilience. Part of the strategy has seen increased investment in domestic processing capacity, alongside integrated supply chains with allies. The expansion of the strategy into seabed exploration continues critical minerals diversification aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese dominance in critical mineral processing. To reduce supply chain dependence requires more than extraction or access to critical minerals; it requires processing capacity. At present, China has dominance in processing, which creates a critical minerals bottleneck and can be used for leverage in global competition. Allocating permits for deep-sea mining may increase upstream supply but not necessarily immediately reduce downstream dependence.

China’s ISA exploration contracts cover all three seabed resource categories, giving the country potential access to additional critical minerals and rare earth elements. With the U.S. executive order on offshore critical minerals, exploration efforts may increase, which may lead to the development of extraction technology and seabed supply chains. With China holding five exploration contracts authorised through the ISA and the U.S. expanding deep-sea mineral activity through its national framework, U.S.–China critical mineral competition may expand into seabed resources and associated supply chains.

Different permit and exploration frameworks may also provide varying outcomes. The U.S. operates under differing legislation, granting exploration licences and commercial recovery permits under its own domestic framework administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), as opposed to countries that seek authorisation under the ISA for seabed resources beyond national jurisdiction. With two frameworks, the U.S. domestic framework may offer an alternative pathway outside the ISA which could encourage international companies or states to reassess how they pursue seabed resources. The U.S. framework may not necessarily offer a simple alternative and could have the opposite effect, with companies or states being cautious because regulatory disputes, environmental opposition, or legal and political uncertainty may act as a deterrent. States are seeking new resources through deep-sea exploration with access either granted or under consideration; however, how U.S.–China seabed competition proceeds and what potential governance issues may arise remain to be seen.

WHAT TO WATCH

• NOAA approval of commercial recovery permits.

• ISA approval of additional Chinese contracts alongside exploration activity and moves towards extraction capability.

• Increased U.S. investment in seabed critical mineral processing.

• International responses to U.S. permitting of seabed exploration outside the ISA framework and any ISA regulatory developments.

STRATEGIC INDICATORS

U.S. Seabed Mineral Development — ▲ Increasing

U.S.–China Critical Mineral Competition — ▲ Increasing

International Seabed Governance — ↔ Mixed

SOURCES

United States Government and Regulation

NOAA — Deep Seabed Hard Minerals Mining
NOAA source

The White House — Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources
White House source

U.S. Department of War — Office of Strategic Capital Signs $725 Million Conditional Loan Commitment With Energy Fuels
Department of War source

International Seabed Governance

International Seabed Authority — Exploration Contracts
ISA exploration contracts

International Seabed Authority — Cobalt-rich Ferromanganese Crusts
ISA source

Critical Minerals and Supply Chains

International Energy Agency — Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026
IEA source

International Energy Agency — Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026: Outlook
IEA Outlook source

Industry

The Metals Company — Deep-Seabed Mineral Resources
The Metals Company sourc

International Reporting

Reuters — U.S. Aims to Issue Deep-Sea Mining Permits Within Months, Interior Secretary Burgum Says
Reuters source