GL in Brief | 17 april 2026

Middle East

• The Strait of Hormuz remains a controlled disruption zone. Iran continues to shape access through risk and ambiguity.

• The U.S. has created a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains under the threshold of conflict.

• A fragile ceasefire continues to hold, with military posturing and political signaling shaping Hormuz.
  

Asia Pacific

• China is shaping access to the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea through militia vessels and coastguard incursions. 

• Satellite imagery shows Chinese naval vessels positioned at the entrance to the Shoal in an obstruction strategy.

• The Philippines has accused Chinese fishermen of poisoning waters around the Spratly Islands. The Philippine Navy reported confiscating cyanide from Chinese fishing boats.

Europe

• Britain and France push for security discussions on Hormuz, with the French defence minister indicating Europe has capacity to assist with naval escorts and mine-clearing.

• Russia is targeting Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure, indicating an economic degradation strategy.

Watch

• Maritime flows in the Strait of Hormuz and how the U.S. responds to states attempting transit.

• Chinese grey-zone maritime activities and diplomatic pressure on the Philippines around the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly Islands.