GL IN BRIEF | 5 July 2026
Africa
Belgium's geological archives containing surveys of mineral deposits in the Democratic Republic of Congo will be made available to the DRC government. The DRC is estimated to hold approximately USD 24 trillion in mineral resources, including copper, cobalt, lithium, gold, and diamonds. U.S. company KoBold Metals has entered a strategic partnership with the DRC.
South African anti-immigration protests led to the deployment of 3,400 troops to maintain public order. The unrest may test state capacity to respond to internal security challenges.
Fighting in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to create a humanitarian crisis. RSF drone attacks have targeted infrastructure in El Obeid. An Amnesty International report accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, while an independent UN report described the “hallmarks of genocide.”
Watch
Western expansion in critical mineral and infrastructure investments in the DRC.
Chinese diplomatic responses referencing the existing 2007 minerals-for-infrastructure deal with the DRC and Chinese investment in new mining agreements.
Escalation in anti-immigration protests and clashes with government security forces in South Africa.
International efforts to coordinate humanitarian assistance and civilian corridors for safe passage in Sudan.
Americas
The U.S. administration's temporary trade tariffs are set to expire on 24 July. New Section 301 tariffs may be introduced before existing measures expire. The tariffs form part of broader efforts to reshape global supply chains and strengthen domestic manufacturing.
Keiko Fujimori was declared the winner of Peru’s presidential election by a slight margin. The result continues Latin America’s shift towards centre-right governments in response to economic and security challenges.
A Peruvian court has ruled that the government should oversee the Chinese state-operated port of Chancay. The port operates as a strategic shipping hub between Asia and Latin America. The decision may increase government oversight of Chinese-operated infrastructure as U.S.-China competition increases in the region.
The Mercosur trade bloc has entered into economic negotiations with Japan. A trade agreement would encompass 280 million people and a combined GDP of USD 3 trillion. Negotiations are likely to focus on critical minerals, technology, and the agricultural sector.
Watch
Implementation of new Section 301 tariffs and international and domestic responses.
Cabinet appointments and economic policy priorities of the new Peruvian government.
Legal, security, and anti-crime legislation that could impact Chinese influence along with U.S. investment in regional infrastructure.
Chinese diplomatic statements on Peruvian government oversight over the Port of Chancay.
Negotiation developments in the Mercosur-Japan trade agreement, particularly on critical minerals and agriculture.
Asia Pacific
China has launched new Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, describing them as “law enforcement patrols.” Taiwan has characterised the operations as lawfare, calling them an "illegal expansion of power in violation of international law and a disruption of regional stability."
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Australia, Indonesia, and New Zealand. The visit will be part of wider engagement by India in the Asia-Pacific. India has agreed to supply arms to Indonesia, is one of Australia’s largest trading partners, and recently signed a trade agreement with New Zealand.
Global financial firms are adopting a more cautious approach towards China and India. A survey by the Asia Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA) and consultancy firm KPMG found competition among Asian financial centres has increased. Singapore remains the region’s leading financial hub, while South Korea has increased its position.
Watch
Increased Chinese coast guard incursions east of Taiwan and international responses.
Expanded maritime coordination between Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines.
Defence and trade statements during Prime Minister Modi’s regional visit.
Foreign investment trends into Asia and financial market reactions.
Europe
NATO members have largely replaced U.S. reductions in the alliance’s defence plans following increased defence budgets by member states. One remaining gap is reported to be strategic bombers.
The European Commission has announced five cross-border defence projects eligible for EU funding. The programme includes drone and counter-drone capabilities, integrated maritime defence, and projects aimed at improving coordination and addressing capability gaps.
Reports that China has trained Russian soldiers have led Germany to request talks with the Chinese ambassador. China has labelled the reports as unfounded.
Reports have emerged of the U.S. warning Poland over a possible limited Russian incursion. Some reports indicated potential hybrid provocation, drone or missile strikes, or a small incursion into Polish territory under the guise of a GPS malfunction. The reports have suggested Russia may be aiming to test NATO resolve.
Watch
Further information on Russian and Chinese military training links.
Hybrid activity involving NATO’s Eastern Flank.
Russian military activity in Kaliningrad or Belarus.
NATO military posturing and statements towards Russia.
Middle East
The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Maritime data indicates commercial traffic is increasing, with vessels using two transit routes, one closer to Oman and the other to Iran. Recent projectile incidents targeting vessels prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iranian sites.
The Israeli defence minister stated that Israeli forces will remain in designated security zones in Syria and Lebanon, with no withdrawal currently planned.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated that peace in the region will require broader regional support and that Israel should not be allowed to “dynamite” the U.S.-Iran peace agreement.
Turkey plans to increase cooperation with Pakistan in critical minerals, technology, and defence, alongside a bilateral trade target of USD 5 billion.
OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in August. The decision follows a gradual increase in commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Watch
Maritime shipping data indicating commercial transit volumes and routing in the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. statements regarding Israel’s presence in designated security zones.
Iranian responses to increased oil production and any further attempts to influence commercial shipping through limited projectile attacks.