GL IN BRIEF | 11 July
Africa
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso—continues to strengthen ties with Moscow. After cutting ties with France and Western partners, the AES is seeking to deepen military cooperation with Russia, including with Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps.
The conflict between the Malian military and Islamist insurgents continues. The military claims to have broken a blockade around an army base in northern Mali. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) claims Malian forces were supported by troops from Niger and Burkina Faso.
Mali and Algeria restored diplomatic ties after a year of diplomatic tensions following the downing of a Malian drone in Algerian airspace. The AES had withdrawn its ambassadors alongside Mali. Military and civilian airspace is reportedly being reopened, and ambassadors are expected to return to their posts.
The World Bank has confirmed its partnership with the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with USD 8 billion allocated for development projects.
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Deepening diplomatic and military ties between AES states, alongside closer collaboration with Moscow.
Critical mineral agreements with the DRC following Belgium's release of geological archives.
Anti-immigration protests escalating in South Africa.
Americas
The “Shield of Americas," a security initiative established by the Trump administration, released a joint statement signed by the U.S., Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guyana, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago. The statement expressed concern over attempts to cast doubts on the Colombian electoral process.
The U.S. continues to develop its policy towards Latin America through the “Donroe Doctrine." The Pentagon outlined a strategy focused on combating narcotics trafficking and illegal migration, arguing that the U.S. defence strategy is linked to the everyday security concerns of citizens.
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro has asked the U.S. to delay proposed tariffs until after Brazil’s October election. He argued that the tariffs would benefit the current government, while critics have attributed the tariffs to Senator Bolsonaro’s relationship with the Trump administration.
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Expansion of U.S. security agreements in Latin America.
U.S. trade measures and regional responses.
Chinese infrastructure investments or development projects.
Asia Pacific
Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports to Japan have prompted companies to warn of increasing supply chain risks. Beijing continues to restrict exports following tensions over Taiwan. Japan is seeking alternative supplies through partnerships with the U.S. while also facing rising aluminium prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The Philippines has rejected claims by Chinese academics that the Batanes Islands belong to China. Located 200 km from Taiwan, Chinese scholars claim the islands are an extension of Taiwan.
The Commander of U.S.-Indo-Pacific Command has requested USD 122 billion to strengthen deterrence across the region against Chinese military expansion, risks to Taiwan, and cooperation between Russia and North Korea.
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Continued economic coercion through critical minerals.
Chinese maritime activity around the east of Taiwan and the First Island Chain.
Regional deterrence measures and defence investment.
Europe
Leaders at the NATO Summit reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 collective defence and increased defence spending. NATO members also announced USD 70 billion in additional military support for Ukraine, while declaring that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and reaffirming the importance of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Ukraine is expected to receive a licence to produce its own Patriot missile interceptors domestically. The announcement by President Trump at the NATO Summit comes as Ukraine faces pressure on its air defence stockpiles.
Russian missile and drone strikes hit apartment buildings in Kyiv ahead of the NATO Summit, killing at least 24 and wounding more than 100 people.
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Expansion and integration of NATO defence initiatives.
Domestic production of Patriot missile interceptors in Ukraine.
Russian long-range strikes on key Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine strikes on Russian military and industrial targets.
Middle East
President Trump advised that he expects Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon after discussions with Prime Minister Netanyahu. The comments follow a trilateral agreement between the U.S., Lebanon, and Israel in late June.
The Israel-Lebanon agreement continues to face internal challenges. Israel has yet to complete its withdrawal, while tensions between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah remains. Efforts to disarm the terrorist group could contribute to domestic political divisions and violence.
Maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. Commercial shipping data indicates vessels continue to transit the waterway; however, questions over transit routes and freedom of navigation persist.
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Israeli troop movements in southern Lebanon.
Interactions between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah.
Commercial shipping data through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating transit volumes and route selection.
Iranian use of projectiles against commercial vessels as strategic leverage, and the U.S. response.