GL IN BRIEF | 17 July

Africa

• G7 foreign ministers and the European Union's ​foreign policy chief issued a joint statement calling on the UN Security Council to expand the ​Darfur arms ​embargo ⁠to cover all of Sudan. The group also urged the Sudanese Armed Forces and allied armed groups to cease operations that could endanger civilians in the city of El-Obeid.

• A Reuters investigation linked companies that have held U.S. military and UN contracts to Boeing aircraft operating through key logistics hubs in Sudan used by the Rapid Support Forces. The RSF has been accused of committing genocide in the region.

• Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is targeting the logistics and transport infrastructure that sustains the Malian state. Attacks on supply convoys form part of a broader campaign of economic coercion, placing pressure on fuel and food supplies.

What to Watch 

• Continued diplomatic efforts to expand the Sudan arms embargo and increase humanitarian access.

• Diplomatic pressure on the United Arab Emirates over allegations of support for the RSF.

• The Malian government’s ability to secure transport corridors, protect supply convoys, and mitigate domestic fuel and food shortages.

Americas

• The U.S. has imposed new 25% tariffs on a range of Brazilian imports, taking effect on July 22 after unsuccessful negotiations. The decision has prompted political accusations between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Brazil's foreign affairs minister, while Brazil is preparing retaliatory measures.

• The White House has announced a new initiative bringing together AI developers and essential service providers to identify cybersecurity vulnerabilities. Advanced AI systems can discover weaknesses in software and infrastructure that could be exploited by malicious actors. The initiative will enable coordination between AI developers and government agencies to share information and coordinate responses to vulnerabilities affecting government systems.

• President Trump met Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and indicated that the U.S. would pursue economic agreements with Iraq, particularly in the oil sector. Washington is also expected to pressure the Iraqi government to disarm Iran-backed militia groups, which risks internal political and security disruption in Iraq.

What to Watch

• Brazil’s efforts to challenge the U.S. tariffs through the World Trade Organization dispute-settlement mechanism and any retaliatory tariff measures.

• The international response to the U.S. tariffs and their impact on Brazilian trade, domestic politics, and relations with Washington.

• U.S. troop withdrawals, economic investment, and pressure on Iraq to disarm Iran-backed militias.

Asia Pacific

• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference, the ​East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting, and the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila. Chinese officials are also expected to attend, with preparations for a second summit between President Trump and Xi likely to be discussed.

• ASEAN members are expected to discuss key regional issues, including the conflict in Myanmar and negotiations on a South China Sea code of conduct following continued territorial tensions. Talks with rebel groups in Myanmar have been described as productive.

• Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has called for greater collective defence and increased defence spending for surveillance, coastal attack, and small surface drones as part of Taiwan’s asymmetric defence strategy.

• Papua New Guinea has closed Taipei's representative office, drawing praise from China. Taiwan only has formal diplomatic relations with three Pacific countries, Palau, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands, while continuing to operate a representative office in Fiji.

What to Watch

• Progress towards a second summit between Washington and Beijing.

• Joint ASEAN statements on the South China Sea, particularly references to international law and the Code of Conduct negotiations.

• Taiwan’s investment in drone capabilities and efforts to strengthen defence partnerships.

• Regional diplomatic responses to PNG’s decision to close Taipei’s representative office.

Europe 

• The European Union and Ukraine have established a joint venture combining Ukraine’s drone expertise with the EU’s industrial production capacity. The agreement forms part of the EU-Ukraine defence industrial partnership and includes plans to expand cooperation on anti-ballistic missile capabilities by 2028.

• French President Macron announced the formation of an integrated anti-ballistic missile coalition with Ukraine. Members include Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, ​the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, ‌Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The initiative aims to strengthen Europe’s collective missile defence capabilities.

• The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Estonia has raised concerns and uncertainty over Washington’s long-term position in Eastern Europe. U.S. troop rotations have also resulted in the withdrawal of approximately 1,000 troops from Lithuania. 

Watch

• Russian diplomatic and military responses to the European Union-Ukraine defence partnership. 

• Progress in EU-Ukraine drone production and the development of missile defence capabilities.

• U.S. troop deployments or withdrawals across the EU.

Middle East

• The U.S. and Iran continue to target critical infrastructure during the conflict. U.S. strikes have hit bridges and an airport in Iran, while Iran targeted a power and desalination ​plant in Kuwait. President Trump has not ruled out the use of ground forces, while Iran may continue attacks against infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states.

• Escalation between the U.S. and Iran has significantly disrupted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with only three transits recorded on Thursday. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has indicated that no oil will transit the Strait while U.S. attacks continue. 

• A drone strike on Iraq’s Basra oil terminal temporarily suspended oil loadings, while Iran indicated the Houthis could target vessels or infrastructure in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of further disruption to regional maritime trade.  

What to Watch

• Further U.S. strikes against Iranian infrastructure and any deployment of additional naval or ground forces.

• Iranian attacks on critical infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and the regional diplomatic responses.

• Houthi strikes on vessels or infrastructure in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that could disrupt Red Sea shipping.