GL IN BRIEF | 24 July
Africa
Namibia Critical Metals will invest in processing capacity to create greater value prior to refining. The project will produce rare earth carbonates and intermediate products, resulting in higher value-added production rather than mineral extraction alone.
Conflict in the Sahel threatens the region's gold industry as mineral resources become increasingly intertwined with conflict financing and sustainment. Islamist groups target infrastructure, transport routes, and communities linked to gold production to degrade economic activity, while Chinese mining workers have also been targeted for kidnapping to generate revenue.
A Nigerian LNG vessel has transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite continued Houthi threats. The transit does not indicate a return to normal shipping, with commercial traffic through the Red Sea remaining disrupted and crossings reportedly declining by approximately 30% in a single day.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing – Africa’s mineral value chain and competition over resources
Africa’s mineral sector is becoming intertwined with conflict, global supply chains, and industrial policy. Investment and agreements are supporting greater processing capacity and reducing reliance on mineral extraction, while insecurity in the Sahel threatens mining operations, resource production, and revenue streams.
What to Watch
Investments and agreements in Africa for greater control of processing, particularly in Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Namibia.
Further Islamist attacks on critical infrastructure and routes that sustain conflict in the Sahel.
European investment in African security and humanitarian assistance following Germany’s pledge of EUR 10 million towards security in Nigeria.
Americas
Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega has stated there will no longer be elections in the country. After nearly two decades in power, Ortega positioned his government directly against the U.S. and opposition groups described as Somocistas. The move further consolidates authoritarian rule.
Brazil has announced a USD 3.66 billion credit package as the third phase of a programme supporting companies impacted by U.S. tariffs. A separate U.S. investigation could result in an additional 12.5% tariff, raising the total on some products to 37.5%.
Argentina’s credit rating is improving under economic reforms, with Moody’s upgrading the country’s sovereign credit rating to B3. The decision reflects confidence in Argentina’s fiscal position, investment environment, and export performance.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing – Political and economic divergence across the Americas
Political and economic trajectories are diverging across Latin America. Nicaragua is further consolidating authoritarian rule, while Argentina’s reforms are strengthening economic confidence and attracting investment. Brazil’s response to U.S. tariffs reflects increasing trade pressure and policy responses.
What to Watch
U.S. diplomatic and economic responses to Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's declaration that Nicaragua will not hold elections.
Brazil’s efforts to resolve trade disputes through international mechanisms and bilateral negotiations.
The findings of the U.S. forced labour investigation into Brazil and the potential for additional tariffs.
Asia Pacific
The Republic of Nauru will strengthen bilateral ties with Israel by opening an embassy in Jerusalem. The decision reflects how Pacific Island states are influencing geopolitical competition through diplomatic alignment.
ASEAN foreign ministers have expressed concern about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on energy supplies. The bloc will also hold consultations on the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that U.S. cooperation with China would not be at the expense of regional allies and partners. Rubio reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to freedom of navigation and international law amid disputes between China’s coast guard and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing – Indo-Pacific diplomacy and energy security
ASEAN members are fast-tracking efforts to ratify an oil-sharing agreement to mitigate disruption from conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, diplomatic engagement, rearmament, and joint military exercises suggest a broader regional response to geopolitical competition and maritime disputes.
What to Watch
Continued diplomatic engagement between ASEAN member states and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Renewed regional efforts to advance conflict resolution in Myanmar.
Foreign ministers' statements regarding freedom of navigation, territorial sovereignty, and the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling.
Europe
The European Union announced its 21st sanctions package against Russia. The package targets Russia’s banking sector, with 94 financial institutions sanctioned and 32 banks disconnected from international payment systems such as SWIFT. The package also lowers the price cap on Russian oil to USD 44.10 per barrel, alongside asset freezes and travel and transaction bans on individuals.
The EU has approved UK participation in the EUR 90 billion Ukraine Support Loan. The approval enables Ukraine to procure UK defence products, expanding its defence procurement base.
Germany has approved Framatome to work with Russian state companies to produce nuclear fuel rods. Although Russian personnel will not be permitted at the facility, the approval highlights Europe’s ongoing exposure to the Russian nuclear sector and the selective nature of European sanctions.
Russia reportedly struck the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Chornomorsk, targeting port infrastructure and vessels that sustain the Ukrainian military. The claims remain unverified but demonstrate Russia’s targeting of Ukraine's maritime logistics and Black Sea infrastructure.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing – European defence integration and economic pressure on Russia
The EU has expanded its sanctions on Russia while also deepening Ukraine’s defence procurement pool. European support is becoming more integrated through financing, sanctions, and procurement. Ongoing dependence on the Russian nuclear sector highlights that Europe’s economic and energy separation from Russia remains incomplete.
What to Watch
The implementation and impact of the EU’s latest sanctions on Russia's financial sector.
Russia's political and economic response to the EU's 21st sanction package.
Ukraine's strategic defence procurement through the expanded European and UK industrial base.
Further Russian strikes against Ukraine’s port and logistics infrastructure.
Middle East
Yemen’s Houthi movement announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian-linked vessels in the Red Sea. The announcement was followed by attacks on two vessels attempting to transit the Red Sea, representing the first direct strikes since the blockade was declared. The Houthi blockade is beginning to shape commercial behaviour as regional risk increases.
U.S. President Trump has stated that Iran will be held responsible for Houthi attacks and is considering a “massive attack.” The statement reinforces Washington’s assessment that the Houthi remain an Iranian proxy and increases the risk of direct U.S.–Iran confrontation.
Oil prices rose above USD 100 per barrel in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and continued maritime disruption. The attacks reflect the Iran–Houthi strategy to impose economic pressure through threats and the targeting of oil tankers. Markets are increasingly pricing geopolitical risk, demonstrating how threats and limited attacks can have global financial repercussions.
The U.S. has completed its 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Targets have included maritime infrastructure, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defences.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing – Maritime coercion and regional escalation
The U.S.–Iran conflict is extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, influencing maritime trade and global markets. The Houthi blockade and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels illustrate how commercial shipping is being used as leverage. Houthi threats and limited strikes have already influenced commercial shipping behaviour and increased commercial risk.
What to Watch
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the international response to increased risk in the Red Sea.
U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iran in response to Houthi attacks.
Oil markets and commercial insurance premium pricing reacting to increased risks in the Red Sea.
Shipping data on volumes transiting the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps response to U.S. infrastructure strikes.