GL IN BRIEF | 31 July
AFRICA
Fighting in Sudan continues to spread, with concerns over an increased risk to civilians in the Kordofan region and Blue Nile. Control of these regions would have strategic implications for key logistical and supply corridors. The conflict between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is increasingly becoming a war of attrition following failed ceasefire discussions.
The U.S. is engaging with Eritrea and Somalia over rising tensions in the Red Sea. Both countries share coastlines along the Horn of Africa, and U.S. President’s Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos reportedly discussed regional security and stability with officials.
The U.S. is expanding efforts to diversify its critical mineral supply chain by backing the Ampasindava rare earths project in Madagascar. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has pledged investment into the project, highlighting growing competition to reduce dependence on China’s dominance of rare earths and processing.
The Kenyan government has shortlisted seven consortiums, including U.S., Chinese, and Australian groups, as part of the tender process for Mrima Hill rare earth deposits. Mrima Hill contains an estimated USD 62 billion worth of rare earth resources, with the project highlighting the expansion of the critical mineral industry in Africa, and growing competition over access to minerals. The tender process has also generated concern among local communities, illustrating the potential for domestic tension alongside strategic competition.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing—Competition for African critical mineral assets.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia, Kenya, and Madagascar remain central to global competition for critical minerals. Kenya's tender process demonstrates that African governments are playing a more active role in determining the conditions for extraction while global mining companies compete for access.
What to Watch
Fighting in the Kordofan region and Blue Nile, particularly efforts to secure strategic logistical corridors, and international responses to the deteriorating humanitarian situation.
Diplomatic engagement with Eritrea and Somalia and any security implications in the Red Sea.
Progress in Kenya’s tender process for Mrima Hill and the response from local communities and international investors.
Americas
In response to U.S. tariffs, Brazil has asked for consultations with the U.S. under the World Trade Organization's dispute settlement mechanism. The request highlights the use of international legal procedures to challenge economic coercion.
The U.S. continues to expand its tariff regime, imposing new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners. The decision has drawn criticism and diplomatic responses from trading partners while reinforcing trade as a tool of economic competition.
The U.S. is considering funding programmes and initiatives to counter Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere, with the approach potentially expanding to Africa and Asia. The initiative would focus on telecommunications, cybersecurity, and infrastructure projects in Central America and the Caribbean.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing—Strategic competition through trade and investment.
The U.S. continues to expand tariffs on trade partners, affecting both traditional allies and competitors. Simultaneously, proposed investment initiatives suggest that the U.S. is aiming to counter Chinese influence through technology, economic, and diplomatic engagement across the Americas, with the approach potentially expanding to other continents.
What to Watch
Progress in Brazil’s request for tariff consultation through the WTO dispute mechanism.
International response to expanded U.S. tariffs.
U.S. funding and investment announcements in telecommunications, cybersecurity, and infrastructure in the Western Hemisphere.
Asia Pacific
The U.S., Japan, and the Philippines completed five days of maritime exercises in the South China Sea. The joint drills integrated warships, coast guard vessels, surveillance and fighter aircraft and took place shortly after the ASEAN Summit. The exercises demonstrate continued alliance building, interoperability, and deterrence in the South China Sea.
Japan has identified medium and heavy rare earth elements following recent deep-sea exploration. The project forms part of Japan’s broader strategy to reduce dependency on Chinese critical mineral supply chains.
Reports of a brief meeting between the Chinese and Japanese foreign ministers at the ASEAN Summit have led to public disagreement. Conflicting statements over whether the meeting took place reflect ongoing bilateral tension between the two states.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing—Security and economic competition in the Indo-Pacific.
Security and economic competition continue as states strengthen security partnerships and reduce economic dependence. Territorial disputes in the South China Sea have placed the Philippines and China at the centre of maritime tensions, while joint military exercises involving the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines demonstrate continued security alignment and force projection.
Japan’s deep-sea mining project also reflects its long-term strategy to reduce economic dependence on Chinese critical mineral supply chains.
What to Watch
Further military exercises involving the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines alongside diplomatic statements from China.
Progress in Japan’s deep-sea exploration and assessment of rare earth elements.
Further diplomatic engagement and public statements between China and Japan.
Europe
A Russian cruise missile reportedly struck Polish territory, prompting NATO allies to scramble aircraft. The incident drew diplomatic condemnation, reaffirmed NATO’s commitment to defence while highlighting the risk of conflict spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders.
Italy may access €14.9 billion through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative to support military defence spending. The decision requires parliamentary approval and also reflects wider efforts to strengthen Europe’s defence capability.
EU sanctions have targeted third countries, with Georgia's Kulevi refinery receiving a transaction ban for processing Russian crude. The decision demonstrates EU efforts to prevent sanctions circumvention and pressure Russian energy revenues.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing—European defence, resilience and economic security
Europe continues to strengthen its defence capabilities through funding mechanisms that encourage partners to increase defence spending. The reported Russian missile incident highlights the risk of the Ukraine conflict spilling beyond its borders and the importance of NATO’s collective defence.
EU sanction expansions targeting third countries demonstrate continued efforts to reduce Russian revenue streams and sanctions circumvention.
What to Watch
NATO diplomatic responses and military activity following the reported missile incident.
Russian diplomatic statements regarding the reported missile entering Polish territory.
Progress on the Italian Parliament’s decision on the €14.9 billion in funding through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative.
Further EU sanctions targeting third countries involved in Russian energy and economic networks.
Middle East
Reports indicate the Houthis may implement a toll-charging transit fee for commercial shipping in the Red Sea. If implemented, the decision would represent an attempt to institutionalise the Houthis' influence over maritime access in the Red Sea by combining military and economic coercion.
Reports indicate that China has engaged with the Houthis regarding passage of Chinese-linked tankers through the Red Sea. While some China-bound tankers have passed through the Red Sea, the development may suggest that access could be influenced by political alignment rather than the principle of freedom of navigation.
Saudi Arabia claims the Houthis coordinated recent attacks against the country from Iraqi territory alongside Iran-backed armed groups. If confirmed, attacks launched from Iraq would demonstrate increasing operational integration among Iran-aligned armed groups.
Strategic Indicator
▲ Increasing—Influence over Middle Eastern maritime security and regional proxy integration.
The Houthis' declaration of a blockade of Saudi-linked shipping, alongside proposals to implement transit fees, indicates increasing attempts to shape access in the Red Sea. Reports that Beijing engaged in talks with the Houthis to enable Chinese-linked ships to transit suggest that political alignment may become a condition for commercial access.
Separately, the Iran–Houthis alliance is not only shaping maritime space but also points to increasing operational integration among Iran-backed groups.
What to Watch
The Houthis' announcements of transit fees and conditions for passage in the Red Sea
Commercial shipping data indicating continued transit of Chinese-linked tankers.
Further attacks launched from Iraqi territory and responses from the U.S.–Saudi Arabia.