GL IN BRIEF | 4 SEPTEMBER
Key Judgements
Security partnerships continue to deepen globally with Niger–Russia–Algeria, Pacific security investment, and the MJDA operationalisation. States may be building overlapping security partnerships amid U.S. strategic ambiguity. Other states such as South Korea and Belgium may also be diversifying their partnerships, while Poland is strengthening domestic and regional capacity to increase defence self-reliance.
Economic independence is increasing, particularly with critical minerals. As international competition for critical minerals continues, Africa is using its resource base to build greater infrastructure and processing capacity. Discussions between India and Zambia indicate that interest in Africa’s critical minerals is extending beyond U.S.-China competition. Supply chains continue to face disruption, with weather-related water levels impacting nickel output in Indonesia and global pricing.
Maritime disruption continues in the Strait of Hormuz, with crude tankers targeted and vessel transits down to single digits on Thursday. Nigeria and Portugal will conduct joint exercises in the Gulf of Guinea to address maritime security challenges, indicating that maritime security remains a strategic priority, particularly around oil infrastructure. U.S.–New Zealand investment in a Cook Islands port will improve trade flows, and alongside further joint Australian–U.S. funding for the region, it signals renewed U.S. investment and commitment to the Pacific.
Africa
Niger has regained control of the Niamey airbase after a mutiny and failed coup attempt. Russia’s Africa Corps assisted loyalist forces to recapture the strategic site used to support the AES joint counter-terrorism force. Algeria has sent an air detachment to Niger in a shift in policy from the country’s anti-interventionist approach. Algeria's relations with the Sahel have improved recently after diplomatic tension in 2024, while the deployment could indicate a strengthening of Niger's external security partnerships.
Competition for critical minerals is broadening beyond the U.S.–China competition, with India holding discussions with Zambia over investment opportunities in copper and other critical minerals. India’s wider engagement in Africa may be motivated by its need to import over 90% of copper concentrates by 2047. The increasing competition may result in greater processing capacity being developed in African countries.
Ghana National Petroleum Corporation signed a memorandum of understanding with Shell for gas exploration in an effort to boost crude oil production. The MoU provides a framework for negotiations on final licence terms. As Ghana has experienced declining crude oil production, the government has made efforts to attract investment through changes in regulations and taxation.
Nigeria and Portugal are conducting joint maritime exercises in the Gulf of Guinea. The exercises will involve Nigerian security agencies and aim to strengthen interoperability and counter maritime security threats. Nigeria’s increasing role in maritime security follows the launch of the Combined Maritime Task Force and an African maritime rapid response to prevent maritime threats and piracy.
Strategic Indicator:
Sahel Security Architecture and External Military Integration
▲ Increasing
Critical Mineral Competition
▲ Increasing
Gulf of Guinea Security Cooperation
▲ Increasing
What to Watch
Continued stabilisation efforts from Niger’s military alongside military support from Russia and Algeria, and potential attacks from jihadist groups seeking to capitalise on the internal disruption.
Progress on the India and Zambia copper and critical minerals discussions, alongside broader Indian engagement with African states.
Shell investment in Ghana’s oil and gas infrastructure, potentially increasing output capacity, alongside changes in legislation to encourage investment.
Diplomatic statements from Nigeria and Portugal suggesting further planned exercises as well as progress on the operationalisation of the Combined Maritime Task Force.
Americas
Argentine President Javier Milei announced measures aimed at strengthening defence in southern Argentina, including sanctions on companies involved in oil projects around the Falkland Islands, a bill in Congress that strengthens Argentina’s response to territorial violations through extended sanctions, and plans to build a naval base to strengthen telecommunications capabilities. The measures combine energy resources, sanctions and defence posture, indicating a strategic policy shift rather than Falklands rhetoric.
Cuba has implemented pro-market reform regulations to attract foreign investment, trade and tourism as U.S. economic pressure mounts and the country experiences blackouts. Earlier, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Cuba’s state-owned bank, along with two companies involved in Cuba’s nickel mining industry. The broadening of U.S. sanctions on the nickel industry adds a strategic element to the measures.
The Canadian government announced plans to invest C$4.7 billion in domestic rail passenger-car manufacturing rather than relying on U.S. manufacturing. As trade tensions continue, Canada's trade surplus was C$769 million, down from C$4.2 billion the previous month, with exports to the U.S. down 6.6%. Domestic manufacturing will reportedly support 700 jobs and signals efforts to secure supply chains and a shift in industrial policy.
The Trump administration has criticised the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade pact, creating economic uncertainty in Mexico. Companies are reportedly looking to relocate, including three auto parts companies potentially moving to Vietnam. It highlights that even statements on trade can lead to economic uncertainty and flow-on effects.
Strategic Indicator
Argentine Defence Posturing Towards the Falkland Islands
▲ Increasing
Cuba-U.S. Economic Tension
▲ Increasing
Impacts of U.S.-Canada Trade Tension on Canada
▲ Increasing
Foreign Investment in Mexico
↔ Mixed
What to Watch
UK diplomatic responses to Argentine sanctions against companies operating in the Falkland region.
Foreign investment in Cuba and further U.S. sanctions.
Progress on Canada-U.S. trade discussions, ongoing economic impacts, and policies to counter tariffs.
Further U.S. administration statements on the USMCA and continued economic impacts on Mexico.
Asia Pacific
The Pacific Islands Forum has highlighted the increasing strategic pressure in the Pacific. China objected to the inclusion of Taiwan at the Forum, prompting a response from Australia and New Zealand that the Pacific bloc decides attendees. Several prime ministers did not attend, with suggestions that political pressure influenced their absence. The host country, Palau, secured a joint response to the Chinese ballistic missile test in July, while Beijing downplayed the concern during the week as hype. The diplomatic statements highlight the increasing challenges Pacific states face balancing relations with China and Taiwan, economic interests and regional security.
Australia and the U.S. have pledged USD 580 million in funding for the Pacific Islands. The U.S. will provide USD 150 million, with USD 60 million allocated to energy by expanding fuel storage capacity and supporting grid stability. Australia’s USD 430 million will go towards security in the region, combating drug smuggling, enhancing aerial surveillance, and police and border officer training. The announcement of the funding signals continued Australian engagement and renewed U.S. interest in the region.
The U.S. and New Zealand will contribute USD 60 million towards an upgrade of a World War Two port in the Cook Islands. The upgrade will support shipping conditions by improving access to services while strengthening transport and economic links. The project follows a critical-minerals framework signed between the U.S. and Cook Islands earlier in the year. New Zealand’s funding follows the recently signed defence and security partnership with the Cook Islands, which signals improved relations after diplomatic tensions in 2023 after the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership with China.
Nickel prices rose as weather conditions created water shortages in Indonesia, leading to concerns over a 30-40% reduction in nickel production. Some processing facilities are dependent on hydropower, which has been affected by the low water levels. With rainfall in September predicted to be less than 50mm/month in Sulawesi, nickel output may remain disrupted, leading to further price increases.
Strategic Indicator
Chinese-Pacific Relations
↔ Mixed
Australia–New Zealand–US Financial Investment in the Pacific Region
▲ Increasing
Indonesian Nickel Supply Pressure
▲ Increasing
What to Watch
Joint statement from the Pacific Island Forum on the Chinese ballistic missile test and statements referencing regional autonomy, international law, and Chinese responses.
Progress on Australia–New Zealand–US-funded projects alongside Chinese responses through increased infrastructure investment.
Weather conditions and the impact on Indonesia's nickel output, as well as statements indicating investment in energy infrastructure.
Europe
The EU has vowed to apply increased pressure on Russia in response to allegations that Russia was responsible for a drone laden with explosives found in Leipzig/Halle Airport. The measures will reportedly include sanctions that may target Russia’s military complex and supply chain. The discovery of the drone indicates an escalation in hybrid activity with NATO and the EU having to balance a response against the risk of escalation.
European gas storage facilities are approximately 65% full. The Commission’s Gas Coordination Group reported that there is no immediate risk to gas supplies, but that the global gas markets require monitoring. The EU’s reliance on Russian gas alongside the Middle East supply chain disruption has exposed continued energy dependence.
Poland's militarisation continues to expand through domestic production, defence procurement and joint ventures with Central European companies. Poland’s defence budget is approximately €53 billion, with the country now focusing on expanding domestic and Central European production while reducing dependence on external procurement.
Belgium and India have committed to strengthening ties across defence, trade, clean energy, critical minerals, research and semiconductors. India has existing ties with the EU; however, the commitment with Belgium suggests deepening relations with individual states which are also looking for diversified economic and strategic partnerships.
Strategic Indicator
Russian Hybrid Activity and Tension with the EU ▲ Increasing
European Gas Supplies ↔ Mixed
Poland’s Militarisation, Domestic Production and Central European Procurement ▲ Increasing
Belgium–India Strategic Cooperation ▲ Increasing
What to Watch
EU diplomatic statements and sanctions targeting Russian military and economic infrastructure.
Changes in EU gas purchases and storage volumes.
Poland’s development of domestic drone production capacity alongside further procurement.
Further details on the Belgium–India partnership.
Middle East
U.S. sanctions and naval blockade have applied significant economic pressure on Iran. Reports suggest Iranian crude loadings are down from approximately 1.7 million bpd to 260,000 bpd. Further reports indicate that foreign trade has declined by 35% while inflation is close to 70%. The UAE has stopped dealings with Iran, which has added pressure. The combination of sanctions and naval blockade may be restricting Iran’s ability to circumvent sanctions, particularly through oil ship-to-ship transfers and shadow fleet operations.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists as maritime tracking data indicates only four commodity vessels transited on Thursday, down from an average of 15 over the previous 10 days. Attacks on tankers carrying Saudi crude earlier this week indicate that oil tankers may face greater risk than commodity vessels. Oil markets are reacting with Brent up 7.6%, at around $95.52.
South Korea is considering contributing to freedom of navigation in Hormuz, which may include military support. The consideration may be influenced by Asia’s heavy dependence on Middle East energy imports and U.S.-South Korean security discussions. The review of supporting freedom of navigation may be part of an international shift towards maritime enforcement in the region.
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is beginning to operationalise, with a permanent secretariat established in Riyadh. The first secretary-general is expected to be announced soon, with the next steps reportedly focused on creating an institutional framework. The MJDA is shifting from committee to secretariat, leadership and discussions of a potential expansion, with Egypt, Bangladesh and other Gulf states as possible members. Developments indicate a continued reshaping of the security architecture in the region.
Strategic Indicator
U.S. Sanctions and Economic Pressure on Iran
▲ Increasing
Maritime Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
↔ Mixed
South Korean Involvement in Upholding Freedom of Navigation
↔ Mixed
Operationalisation of the MJDA
▲ Increasing
What to Watch
Further U.S. sanctions on Iran and crude export volumes, inflation levels, as well as regional economic isolation.
Maritime data indicating shipping transit volumes and vessel types.
Progress on South Korea’s consideration of support for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Further operationalisation of the MJDA alongside diplomatic statements that could indicate potential membership expansion.