GL IN BRIEF | 28 AUGUST
Key Judgements
Security partnerships are forming and becoming more operational as states respond to regional pressure and seek to reduce dependence. As AES strengthens political cooperation, India continues to expand exercises and partnerships, while Pakistan deepens relations with Middle Eastern states.
Disruption to energy and maritime routes is increasing investment in alternative routes to build capacity. From Africa to South America, investment in energy and mining infrastructure is aiming to increase supply output.
European security pressure is occurring across multiple fronts. Disruption in the Black Sea has decreased supply chains and requires NATO members to invest in mine-clearing capabilities. Tension between Russia and NATO continues with reports of a potential limited Russian attack on NATO territory.
Economic and security partnerships are becoming less exclusive, and trade talks between the U.S. and Canada deteriorate. Egypt's joint air force exercise with China, despite Egypt’s defence relationship with France, demonstrates partners can engage simultaneously with competing powers.
Africa
Investment in energy infrastructure proceeds in Mozambique as ExxonMobil awards pre-investment contracts for equipment. Despite the ongoing Islamist militant risk, the decision highlights efforts to develop energy infrastructure outside the Middle East amid ongoing disruption in the region.
Institution building deepens within the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) as the first session of the confederal parliament was held to strengthen parliamentary cooperation. The first parliamentary session expands on the existing security partnership towards broader institution-building and away from the previous regional architecture.
A military rescue operation was launched after a mass kidnapping by gunmen in Niger State, Nigeria. Reports indicate that 600 people were abducted during an attack, in which 30 people were killed. Abductions for ransom continue to pose security challenges in the region, highlighting the difficulties security forces face in preventing large-scale attacks.
South African mining companies are investing in renewable energy to reduce dependence on the ageing state provider Eskom and reduce costs. The shift highlights that while Africa shifts beyond critical mineral extraction, infrastructure constraints continue to restrict output.
Strategic Indicator
AES Integration ▲ Increasing
African Energy Infrastructure ▲ Increasing
The AES has signalled political integration through the first confederal parliamentary session. While security cooperation developed partly in response to the ongoing threat from Islamists, the deepening political integration suggests that a new framework is emerging outside the previous architecture.
As global supply chain disruption and energy dependence continue, so too does investment in Africa’s energy sector. With Africa becoming more important as a supplier of critical minerals and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, investment in infrastructure to support output is increasing.
What to Watch
Progress on the ExxonMobil project in Mozambique and any disruption caused by insecurity.
Developments and appointments after the first confederal parliamentary session.
The security operation to rescue the 600 hostages in Nigeria, along with statements on improving regional security.
Further investment in renewable energy by South African mining companies.
Americas
U.S.-Canada failed trade negotiations have led to Canada announcing retaliatory tariffs on USD 20 billion worth of imports set to be implemented on 8 September. The U.S. has already imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products, which will pressure integrated supply chains and suggests that existing diplomatic relations will not exclude trade tariffs between the U.S. and its partners.
Argentina and Chile are revitalising the 1997 Mining Integration and Complementation Treaty. The agreement is seeking to change legal and regulatory frameworks to enable greater cooperation between companies by sharing infrastructure and resources in the Andes Mountains. The project could provide access to over USD 20 billion in investment and allow Argentina to access Chilean ports. The cooperation demonstrates efforts to access critical minerals as global supply chains look to diversify.
A U.S. military strike on alleged drug smugglers on a boat in the Caribbean Sea killed four people as part of a months-long enforcement campaign. The strike may indicate that U.S. security engagement is increasingly militarised and operational as part of the ‘Donroe Doctrine’ rather than confined to training, intelligence, and shared military equipment.
Strategic Indicator
U.S.–Canada Free Trade ▼ Decreasing
Argentina–Chile Mining Cooperation ▲ Increasing
US-Canada trade relations have been deteriorating since the announcement of the Trump administration's tariffs. The failed trade talks and subsequent Canadian diplomatic statements that followed indicate that trade tensions are likely to remain in the immediate term.
Global demand and critical mineral supply chain diversification may have revitalised Argentina and Chile's 1997 mining agreement. While the project is in the initial stages, it signals potential mining cooperation.
What to Watch
Reports on the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow confirming details of the visit and Russia-NATO reactions.
Diplomatic statements on Chinese military engagement in Egypt and toward France-Egypt defence relations.
Deployment of Bulgaria’s minehunter ships in the Black Sea and progress on security cooperation.
Progress on Italy’s SAFE funding request alongside indications of defence spending allocations.
Asia Pacific
Japan and India deepen security ties as the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) plans to send fighters to India. The bilateral exercise with the Indian Air Force is set for September, with the U.S. providing additional logistical support for the JASDF through aerial refuelling during the deployment. The first JASDF deployment to India signals strengthening defence cooperation and suggests that Japan may be seeking to operationalise the relationship.
Australia-India defence cooperation in undersea domain awareness strengthens as their joint science and technology project to improve the detection and tracking of submarines and autonomous underwater vehicles develops. With Chinese submarine operations in the Indian Ocean, the initiative shows bilateral and multilateral defence cooperation is becoming increasingly integrated.
The Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre have committed to strengthening regional peace and security cooperation. The agreement includes information sharing, analysis, and situational awareness to respond to security challenges. The collaboration suggests that the Pacific is also strengthening security partnerships, consistent with wider trends across the Asia-Pacific.
India's and Vietnam's coast guards are strengthening maritime security through planned joint exercises to boost interoperability and operational coordination. Although a 2015 MoU was signed, the joint maritime exercise suggests a deepening of the relationship and ongoing efforts by India to strengthen bilateral maritime cooperation.
Strategic Indicator
Indian Security Cooperation ▲ Increasing
Pacific Security Cooperation ▲ Increasing
India’s defence cooperation is becoming more operational through joint exercises and technology development with regional partners, particularly in maritime security.
Pacific security cooperation is emerging with the agreement between the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre. While the agreement is in the initial stages, it may signal further collaboration.
What to Watch
India-Japan joint air force exercises and regional responses.
Progress on the Australia-India undersea domain awareness joint project.
Progress on the agreement between the Melanesian Spearhead Group Secretariat and the Pacific Fusion Centre.
Joint maritime drills between the Indian and Vietnamese Coast Guards and further planned meetings.
Europe
CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Moscow and met with Russian intelligence officials, the first visit from a CIA Director in five years. The visit follows reports that NATO intelligence indicated Moscow was considering an assault on NATO territory. U.S. media reports that Ratcliffe warned Moscow against attacking NATO members.
The Chief of the French Defence Staff, France’s highest military commander, arrived in Egypt to discuss deepening defence cooperation. The talks follow reports of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 training against the Egyptian Air Force flying French-made Rafales. The joint exercises provide an opportunity for Chinese aircraft to train against French-made Rafales, a fighter also operated by NATO members, highlighting that defence client partners may engage with competitors.
Bulgaria will acquire seven minehunter ships from Belgium and the Netherlands to enhance mine-clearing capabilities in the Black Sea. As part of a joint task force with Romania and Turkey, the three countries will work to protect critical infrastructure and secure maritime routes. The Black Sea disruption is escalating as Ukraine and Russia continue to target infrastructure.
Italy has requested €8 billion from the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) to bolster defence capabilities. The decision comes amid pressure from the public and opposition to increase defence spending, highlighting the challenge European members face trying to balance regional security threats and maintain political consensus.
Strategic Indicator
European Security Pressure ▲ Increasing
Europe continues to face ongoing security pressure due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With NATO intelligence reports indicating the possibility of a limited Russian attack on NATO territory, followed by a high-level visit by the CIA Director, the visit may suggest efforts to de-escalate tensions. Economic conflict in the Black Sea risks escalation after comments by President Putin that Russia will expand economic targets. Ukrainian grain exports have decreased as risk in the Black Sea has increased. Joint air force exercises between China and Egypt may also raise concerns for NATO partners as Chinese pilots operate against French jets, potentially gaining further insights into Rafale capabilities.
What to Watch
Reports on the CIA Director’s visit to Moscow confirming details of the visit and Russia-NATO reactions.
Diplomatic statements on Chinese military engagement in Egypt and toward France-Egypt defence relations.
Deployment of Bulgaria’s minehunter ships in the Black Sea and progress on security cooperation.
Progress on Italy’s SAFE funding request alongside indications of defence spending allocations.
Middle East
Iran continues to make attempts to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, blacklisting 45 tankers for breaking crossing rules and threatening action. The threats extend to any vessels transferring loads to the tankers, demonstrating the volatility and instability in the maritime zone.
Qatar is attempting to restart diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. Both sides have indicated an unwillingness to engage in negotiations, indicating that in the near term maritime disruption is likely to continue.
The Houthis claim to have attacked a Saudi-linked vessel in the Red Sea, indicating ongoing efforts by the group to target Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure. The attack occurred near the Red Sea terminus of the East-West pipeline, which is strategically important for Saudi oil transfers. The proximity of the attack highlights the vulnerability of infrastructure supporting alternative oil export routes.
Pakistan continues to build defence partnerships in the region with the signing of an agreement with Kuwait to expand military cooperation. The agreement will allow training, border management, and capacity building with Kuwait. The Pakistan-Kuwait agreement follows an earlier trilateral defence cooperation between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicating Pakistan's deepening security ties in the region and emerging defence architecture
Strategic Indicator
Changing Middle East Security Architecture ▲ Increasing
The Middle East is reshaping security partnerships amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Pakistan is playing a central role in building security cooperation with the Pakistan-Kuwait agreement, which follows a bilateral agreement with Saudi Arabia and a trilateral agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Qatar is positioning itself as a mediator in the U.S.-Iran conflict, suggesting that regional pressure may be accelerating attempts to negotiate a solution.
What to Watch
Iranian enforcement measures against blacklisted tankers and data indicating changes in shipping behaviour.
Progress and diplomatic statements on Qatar’s mediation efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
Further Houthi attacks near Saudi energy infrastructure, particularly an expansion of targets that include alternative energy infrastructure.
Operationalisation of the Pakistan-Kuwait security agreement and further regional security partnerships.