GL in brief | 21 August
Key Judgements
Security partnerships across Africa, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific are expanding through bilateral agreements and joint military activity.
Strategic alignment is being driven by sector instead of forming large geopolitical blocs, with partnerships developing for security, energy, trade, and technology.
Maritime disruption continues in the Middle East, while the Black Sea is becoming another theatre with downstream impacts on commodity prices.
Governments and logistics companies are responding to maritime disruption through initiatives like Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor. Route adaptation is in the early stages but may become more permanent as maritime disruption persists.
Africa
Mali continues to strengthen ties with Russia after pivoting away from Western governments. A phone call between Mali’s interim president, Assimi Goïta, and Russian President Vladimir Putin took place on August 19. The deepening of the relationship may extend from security cooperation in Mali’s fight against militants to trade-related, economic, and humanitarian areas.
Malawi has suspended new mining licences while also maintaining a ban on raw mineral exports. Critics claim the decision will deter investment, which is required to expand production. Malawi’s suspension continues a growing trend of African governments seeking to increase domestic value from mineral resources while expanding refining capacity.
African states continue to seek regional security ties, reducing reliance on foreign forces. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the Democratic Republic of Congo President Félix Tshisekedi have called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Congolese territory while indicating deeper security cooperation between the two countries. President Tshisekedi also stated the continent must move from critical mineral extraction towards processing. The statements reflect Africa’s ongoing reshaping of security and mineral policy.
Strategic Indicator
Africa’s Intention to Expand Critical Mineral Processing and Deepen Security Ties
▲ Increasing
African states continue to emphasise a shift from critical mineral extraction to domestic processing. Numerous states have begun constructing refineries or including processing in critical mineral agreements. The decision to move towards processing may require foreign investment, which is likely to come from competition as foreign powers seek to secure critical mineral agreements.
The Sahel states, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo signal their intention to reduce reliance on external security partners. African security partnerships, such as between Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are emerging, while the Sahel states deepen ties with Russia.
What to Watch
Russian military support in the Sahel alongside announcements of economic or trade agreements.
Progress on Malawi’s efforts to build critical mineral processing capacity and conditions attached to any new mining licences.
Responses from foreign forces stationed inside the Democratic Republic of Congo’s territory as well as the operationalisation of security measures between Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Americas
Latin America’s electoral shift towards the right has created greater regional security convergence in the Western Hemisphere. Expanded efforts to combat drug cartels have included U.S. strikes in Panama, alongside cooperation with Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Despite closer security ties, economic policy alignment remains fragmented as Washington continues to impose tariffs and apply trade pressure across Latin America.
Drought and conflict have created pressure on global waterways, forcing states and logistics companies to seek alternative routes. Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec may offer an alternative land route between the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific ports. Maritime chokepoint vulnerabilities have been exposed through congestion and economic impacts. Mexico aims to develop the corridor as a more stable alternative route to the Panama Canal.
Global competition in Latin America continues as Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa. President Xi stated that Latin American partners should be free to choose their relationships independently. The meeting between the two leaders focused on economic and energy matters. While Noboa is considered a Trump administration ally, Ecuador’s economic ties with China highlight the tension between economic and security partnerships in the region.
Strategic Indicator
US–Latin American Security Cooperation
▲ Increasing
Latin American Strategic Alignment
↔ Mixed
Latin American elections have resulted in a shift to the political right, contributing to greater security alignment with Washington. Election issues such as crime and security have seen some Latin American governments forge closer security ties with the U.S., particularly in efforts targeting drug traffickers.
While U.S.-Latin American security cooperation is expanding, the region’s economic ties with China limit broader alignment with Washington. States are increasingly trying to balance security and economic objectives amid continued U.S. trade pressure.
What to Watch
Joint U.S.-Latin American security operations targeting narcotics traffickers alongside tariff announcements.
Progress on Mexico’s Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec including responses from logistics companies.
Economic or trade agreements between China and Latin American states.
Asia Pacific
Indonesia and China have agreed to increase military ties while also cooperating more closely on technology, energy, and the critical minerals sector. Indonesia maintains its “free and active” foreign policy, balancing regional and international relationships, conducting military exercises with neighbours and maintaining a critical minerals agreement with the U.S. The announcement expands Indonesia’s relationships with competing powers.
Quad members Japan and India have agreed to deepen security ties, including maritime operations. Japan’s technology and India’s production capacity may support deeper cooperation. The announcement is a continuation of regional states developing overlapping bilateral security arrangements rather than relying on U.S. security guarantees.
China has expanded its maritime activity east of Taiwan, which includes law enforcement patrols. The expansion has increased tensions with Taiwan and the Philippines, raising concerns that China is seeking to establish a more permanent presence in the region. Activity in the Pacific approaches east of Taiwan may also complicate U.S.-Japan operating areas while increasing China’s ability to operate around Taiwan.
Strategic Indicators
Application of Indonesia’s Free and Active Policy
▲ Increasing
Bilateral Security Arrangements
▲ Increasing
Chinese Maritime Activity
▲ Increasing
Indonesia continues to engage with regional partners on economic matters and security. Recently, Indonesia has signed a critical minerals agreement with the U.S. and has also agreed to buy BrahMos missiles from India. Regional partners may find Indonesia’s ambiguous foreign policy challenging to interpret and potentially destabilising.
Regional partnerships are expanding, primarily driven by security, with economic and technology sectors potentially forming part of the agreements. Small groups and overlapping agreements have expanded as regional states appear to rely less on U.S. security guarantees.
China’s maritime activity along the First Island Chain has expanded into waters east of Taiwan. The activity comes at a time when the forward-deployed USS George Washington, normally stationed in the Western Pacific, has arrived in the Middle East, leaving the U.S. without a carrier in the region.
What to Watch
Regional responses to increased Indonesian-China cooperation alongside progress on agreements or joint military exercises between the two countries.
Progress on Japan and India deepening security ties and cooperation in other sectors.
Data indicating Chinese maritime activity in the waters east of Taiwan alongside diplomatic statements from China and responses from regional states.
Europe
A marine drone was destroyed by a Romanian F-16. The drone was near the Black Sea gas project Neptun Deep, highlighting heightened activity in the Black Sea and threats to critical infrastructure. As an extension of the Ukraine conflict, Black Sea infrastructure is being targeted as part of a sanctions campaign by Ukraine, drawing a greater response from Russia.
The U.S. and six NATO allies will conduct exercises in Iceland to test the defence of the island and North Atlantic sea routes. The operation, Northern Viking 2026, combines crisis response, maritime warfare, and command and control operations. NATO exercises focus on protecting critical infrastructure and maritime routes that may be required during conflict.
Ukrainian and Russian attacks in the Black Sea targeting infrastructure are affecting commodity prices. Reports indicate that grain exports are disrupted, with some terminals shut down, reducing supplies and increasing global prices. The attacks have also increased tanker rates, reportedly doubling daily rates since June. Disruption in the Black Sea is moving beyond the region and affecting broader commodity supplies and prices.
Strategic Indicator
Impacts of Black Sea Attacks
▲ Increasing
NATO Activity in the North Atlantic
▲ Increasing
Attacks in the Black Sea are escalating alongside diplomatic statements indicating the region is becoming a more significant theatre of conflict. The expansion of conflict across the Black Sea has increased maritime risks, resulting in higher shipping costs, terminal closures, and reduced exports.
U.S. and other NATO allies continue to conduct joint military exercises to strengthen North Atlantic security and interoperability. The exercises highlight the importance of protecting maritime routes needed for Europe during conflict.
What to Watch
Further Ukrainian and Russian attacks in the Black Sea targeting energy and military infrastructure.
NATO exercises in the North Atlantic and diplomatic responses.
Black Sea commodity prices, export volumes, tanker rates, and downstream economic impacts.
Middle East
The U.S. has indicated that new economic sanctions on Iran will be imposed and may also include secondary measures against Iran’s trading partners. The expansion of secondary measures intended to isolate Iran may target partners that trade with Iran or import oil. Some of Iran’s trading partners could also be U.S. allies or security partners, potentially creating pressure on U.S. relations with those states. As yet, details of enforcement measures have not been released. Iran has responded by issuing multidomain threats.
The Iran-backed Houthis continue to launch a campaign against Saudi targets with drone and missile strikes. The ongoing strikes also threaten to disrupt the Bab al-Mandeb maritime chokepoint, creating additional pressure alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the recent signing of the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan security pact, which contains a mutual defence clause, the Houthis have maintained their military strikes against Saudi Arabia and may test how the security partnership responds.
Maritime traffic data indicates that commodity shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with single-digit transits on some days. The low transit volumes indicate that shipping operators continue to perceive risk for crude tankers, as the seven ships that transited were commodity vessels.
Strategic Indicator
Iran Economic Isolation Pressure
▲ Increasing
Maritime Chokepoint Pressure
▲ Increasing
To pressure Iran, the U.S. has indicated an expansion of economic sanctions that may include secondary measures. In an attempt to isolate Iran from trading partners, the secondary measures may target both trade and energy partners. With limited details about the sanctions, the U.S. may have to balance its own relations with some of Iran’s trading partners.
Maritime disruption continues through the Strait of Hormuz and is increasing around Bab al-Mandeb. Maritime traffic data indicates that transit volumes are low and that shipping operators perceive increased risks to very large crude carriers.
What to Watch
Progress on U.S. economic sanctions against Iran, including enforcement measures, particularly secondary measures, alongside diplomatic responses.
Houthi attacks targeting Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and efforts to disrupt Bab al-Mandeb, as well as responses from Saudi Arabia and defence partners.
Maritime traffic data indicating shipping volumes and vessel types transiting the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.