GL IN BRIEF | 11 SEPTEMBER
KEY JUDGEMENTS
Maritime chokepoints continue to experience simultaneous pressure around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb as conflict continues. The Panama Canal is having to manage the dual pressure of increased transits as shipping routes adjust to Gulf conflict and low water levels restricting daily transit numbers.
States are seeking alternative sources for critical minerals processing and economic partners with Kenya pursuing domestic processing, Qatar sourcing U.S. LNG, EU–Greenland investment and mining projects, as well as South Korea–Central Asia engagement.
Economic security and trade fragmentation are leading to the implementation of trade tools as strategic policy. U.S.–Canada trade tensions continue, while the EU looks to employ defensive trade tools to protect its chemicals sector, and European states consider trade restrictions against Israel over West Bank settlement expansion.
Bilateral and smaller-group security partnerships are emerging as states respond to greater global uncertainty over security. India–Japan joint military exercises, Canada–Poland defence cooperation, the Philippines’ regional partnership building, and the Mecca Agreement indicate states are increasingly placing value on bilateral agreements.
AFRICA
The U.S. has indicated that it will support Kenya in developing critical minerals processing as Kenya considers bids to develop Mrima Hill. African states are pushing for greater value addition through domestic processing rather than extraction alone and may be leveraging U.S.–China competition and wider global demand.
The Dangote group plans to commence construction of a 700,000 bpd oil refinery, aiming to have it completed by 2030. The project will strengthen regional fuel supply and energy security and is estimated to cost $15–16 billion. In a shift towards greater refining capacity on the continent, the Dangote group also plans to spend $14 billion to double its Nigerian refinery’s processing capacity as part of an expansion project.
The second edition of the El Alamein International Air Show in Egypt featured Russian Su-57 aircraft carrying S-71M and S-71K drone-like missiles. Other countries such as Spain, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, France and India also participated in aerial displays. The event highlights Egypt's emerging role as a defence hub and market connecting African, Middle Eastern, Chinese and Western suppliers.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
Indication that Kenya Will Develop Domestic Critical Minerals Processing Capacity
▲ Increasing
Dangote Group African Energy Expansion
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
Progress on consortium bids for access to Kenya’s Mrima Hill deposits and associated development of domestic processing capacity.
Dangote’s planned groundbreaking ceremony for the Kenyan oil refinery.
Defence agreements, procurement and partnerships emerging from the El Alamein International Air Show, particularly among existing relationships.
AMERICAS
U.S.–Canada trade tensions continue as the Trump administration bans some Canadian dairy products, motorcycles and alcoholic beverages in retaliation against Canadian tariffs, which took effect. The broadening of U.S.-imposed tariffs signals an escalation in the bilateral trade relationship.
The U.S. continues to expand its engagement in the Western Hemisphere, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio seeking $45 million in additional funding to combat drug trafficking in Ecuador. Rubio’s request coincides with a three-nation tour of Latin America during which he reaffirmed expanded cooperation with Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, and Rubio will also visit Peru as part of efforts to combat narcotics trafficking and illegal immigration.
The Panama Canal is experiencing declining water levels, forcing daily transits down from as high as 40 to around 32 and possibly to 27. The average auction cost for transit slots has increased from a pre-Iran conflict average of $66,150 to $478,750 and from $253,180 to $1.25 million. The combination of lower summer water levels and the conflict in Hormuz has caused additional pressure on the Panama Canal.
Canada and Poland signed a renewed Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) that will deepen cooperation across the defence industry, capability development, military cooperation and training. The agreement also suggests that Canada is continuing to strengthen its role as a middle power, following Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos call for greater cooperation between middle powers. Canada is seeking agreements that strengthen its defence and economic security amid trade tensions and U.S. strategic ambiguity.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
U.S.–Canada Trade Tension
▲ Increasing
U.S. Security and Economic Engagement in the Western Hemisphere
▲ Increasing
Pressure on the Panama Canal
▲ Increasing
Canada Bilateral Engagement
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
Canadian retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, alongside export and import data measuring impacts.
U.S. approval of the $45 million for combating drug trafficking in Ecuador alongside agreements with Peru and Colombia.
Marine traffic data indicating vessel transits through the Panama Canal along with auction pricing and water levels.
Canada–Poland operationalisation of the DCA.
ASIA PACIFIC
India and Japan continue to deepen security ties through the bilateral air exercise Veer Guardian, scheduled for the end of the month. The exercise, planned for 14 days, will include combat aircraft and undertake operational missions. Veer Guardian may signal the increasing operationalisation of strategic defence cooperation.
China–Philippine diplomatic tensions emerged at the Seoul Defence Dialogue when Philippine Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr. discussed the 2016 South China Sea Arbitration. Minister Teodoro received a note on stage which allegedly came from China reiterating that Beijing did not recognise the ruling. Teodoro has expressed concern at reductions in U.S.–South Korean cooperation while highlighting the Philippines' increasing efforts to deepen regional security relationships.
Former Indian Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan (retd) has stated that Pakistan’s wider engagement through defence pacts, such as the Mecca Agreement, could lead to miscalculations, while also acknowledging China’s territorial boundary disputes with India. The comments suggest that Pakistan’s Middle Eastern engagement through partnership building is also having broader regional impacts, particularly with India.
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung announced that South Korea would hold the first South Korean–Central Asia Summit to deepen economic and strategic ties. Leaders from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will attend to discuss trade, energy, investment, supply chains and critical minerals. East Asian states continue to build partnerships as the region operates under U.S. strategic ambiguity.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
India–Japan Defence Cooperation
▲ Increasing
China–Philippine Diplomatic Tension
► Stable
India’s Regional Security Challenges
↔ Mixed
South Korean Engagement in Central Asia
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
Progress and regional reaction to the joint India–Japan air force exercise, Veer Guardian.
Diplomatic statements from China and the Philippines following the Seoul Defence Dialogue and increasing maritime pressure around the Philippines.
Indian regional engagement in defence partnership-building in response to the Mecca Agreement.
South Korean statements on potential agreements with Central Asian states.
EUROPE
European pressure on Israel over the West Bank is increasing through coalitions and national decisions rather than as a European Union bloc measure. EU disagreements on trade restrictions against Israel in breach of international law have led to Spain, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the UK indicating that they are considering trade restrictions. The decision would join other measures taken by Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium on settlement goods.
France, Italy, and possibly Germany are reportedly planning to pressure the EU to implement a trade tool to protect the chemicals and plastics sector amid rising Chinese imports. The chemicals sector is under dual pressure from U.S. tariffs and Chinese imports, with calls from member states to deploy safeguards. Trade tension is increasingly leading to defensive trade tools and economic leverage being employed as countries face uncertainty across sectors.
European critical minerals dependence on China has led to 23 European developers requesting urgent funding. Although 60 strategic projects were selected, developers have argued that financial support, market access and permitting are too slow, which has hindered implementation. The criticism highlights the challenges in reducing critical mineral supply chain dependence, diversifying supply chains and developing processing capacity.
The EU is deepening engagement with Greenland with the announcement of a €200 million support package for 2026–27 covering renewable energy, connectivity and mining. Funding for Greenland is expected to double to €530 million between 2028 and 2034. Part of the EU investment will include two mining projects involving molybdenum, which is used in alloy steel. The EU has increased engagement in the Arctic with joint military exercises under Arctic Shield and expanded economic investment.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
European States’ Trade Tension with Israel
▲ Increasing
Economic Pressure on EU Chemicals Sector
▲ Increasing
EU Critical Minerals Diversification
↔ Mixed
EU Engagement with Greenland
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
EU states implementing trade restrictions against Israel and potential Israeli retaliatory measures.
EU defensive trade tools implemented to protect the chemicals sector from Chinese imports, and possibly subsidies to support the sector under tariff pressure.
Additional funding mechanisms or fast-tracked permitting to increase EU critical minerals diversification.
Progress on EU mining projects in Greenland alongside infrastructure development.
MIDDLE EAST
The Houthis have seized the strategic Yemeni port city of Mocha, potentially increasing leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Houthi forces are reportedly advancing towards strategic islands which could increase pressure on the Red Sea outlet. The capture of Mocha not only has implications for vessels transiting the Red Sea but also for regional stability. Houthi attacks on the Saudi city of Khamis Mushiat have reportedly led to calls from Pakistan, a partner in the Mecca Agreement, for Iran to halt Houthi attacks. The increasing conflict may also provide Iran with leverage against the U.S.
U.S. and Iranian attacks against vessels around Hormuz continue as both sides attempt to implement a blockade. Iran has reportedly attacked ten vessels, while the U.S. has destroyed five Iranian tankers. Despite the risk, clandestine shipments continue to use the Strait of Hormuz, with transit levels fluctuating during the contest for control of the Strait.
Qatar is reportedly considering a long-term agreement with the U.S. for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies to support existing commitments. The Iran–U.S. conflict highlights the region’s ongoing energy disruption and efforts to adapt to alternative supply chains.
Oman is reportedly aiming to convene a meeting between Iranian officials and foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council to discuss the Strait of Hormuz. With increasing clashes in Yemen, details of the proposed meeting are yet to be confirmed. The meeting highlights Oman’s central role in potentially facilitating negotiations over the Strait and ongoing regional efforts to resolve the disruption. Simultaneously, with wider disruption between Yemen and Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the two chokepoints are increasingly interconnected.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
Houthi Escalation and Strategic Territorial Gains
▲ Increasing
Escalation in Attacks against Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
▲ Increasing
Qatar LNG Imports
↔ Mixed
Oman’s Regional Diplomatic Efforts
↔ Mixed
WHAT TO WATCH
Regional responses to Houthi territorial gains, including diplomatic or military responses from Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Pakistan.
Ongoing attacks against vessels by Iran and U.S. enforcement of the blockade in the Gulf.
Progress on Qatar securing U.S. LNG supplies.
Progress on Oman convening regional states and Iran and the outcome of any meeting.