GL IN BRIEF | 25 SEPTEMBER
KEY JUDGEMENTS
Security cooperation: Regional security partnerships continue to emerge globally across Africa’s maritime environment, South Pacific defence cooperation, MECCA, and the Shield of the Americas. These partnerships increasingly consist of smaller groups in response to regional security threats.
Economic security and diversification: International investment and partnership agreements are providing greater financial arrangements to access resources, reduce vulnerabilities across sectors, and strengthen strategic partnerships and supply chain resilience.
Energy security: Ongoing disruption in the Middle East continues to affect global energy supplies, with states seeking to construct energy infrastructure and identify alternative sources.
AFRICA
Escalation in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region by rebel forces resulted in Tigrayan forces seizing three airports. Renewed conflict with government forces is placing greater pressure on regional stability and the durability of the 2022 peace agreement.
11 East African countries that are part of the Djibouti Code of Conduct have backed a proposal to establish a regional maritime task force to counter piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. The proposal signals regional efforts to reduce dependence on external naval forces and greater regional maritime security coordination.
Rwanda’s Bank of Kigali has agreed to participate in China’s CIPS payment system. The decision will deepen economic ties with China through financial integration and reduce the number of financial institutions required in some transactions.
The Dangote Group plans to construct a USD 660 million refined petroleum pipeline between Ethiopia and Djibouti, aiming to strengthen energy security by reducing logistics costs and delays.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
Ethiopian Internal Security Pressure
Increasing ▲
East African Maritime-Security Coordination
Increasing ▲
Rwanda–China Financial Integration
Increasing ▲
WHAT TO WATCH
Tigray rebels' territorial advances and Ethiopian government responses, alongside international efforts to uphold the peace agreement.
Operationalisation of the proposed East African maritime task force in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
International response to closer economic ties between China and Rwanda.
AMERICAS
The Trump administration has agreed to mobilise up to USD 7 billion through the Export-Import Bank to support financing critical minerals development and processing, energy security, digital connectivity and advanced technologies. The agreement is a continuation of U.S. engagement in the Western Hemisphere and critical minerals diversification.
Investment in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector is increasing with memorandums of understanding signed with Brazilian energy companies Eneva and WESCA to develop oil and gas opportunities. International interest in Venezuela continues after the removal of Maduro.
The U.S.-led Shield of the Americas security alliance to counter narcotics trafficking continues to deepen in the Western Hemisphere with President Trump and 14 members meeting at the UN headquarters. The emergence of the security group signals continued U.S. engagement in the Western Hemisphere as part of the National Security Strategy.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
U.S.–Argentina Critical-Mineral and Energy Cooperation
Increasing ▲
International Investment in Venezuela’s Energy Sector
Increasing ▲
U.S.-Led Western Hemisphere Security Cooperation
Increasing ▲
WHAT TO WATCH
Further U.S.-Argentine agreements across key sectors that strengthen trade relations, particularly critical minerals.
Increased investment in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector alongside export data.
Brazil's and Mexico's diplomatic statements on the Shield of the Americas.
ASIA PACIFIC
Defence ministers from Australia, Chile, Fiji, France, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Tonga met, alongside observers from Japan, the U.S. and the United Kingdom. Ministers expressed concern at recent ballistic missile tests in Pacific waters. The meeting suggests a strengthening of regional security responses and coordination.
Indonesia continues to expand its defence cooperation and interoperability with joint exercises with France, including air force drills as part of Pegase 2026. Indonesia has formed several defence partnerships supporting its defence modernisation.
India’s critical mineral producer Lohum is seeking to expand production by buying nickel mines in Indonesia and the Philippines. The investment aims to reduce its dependence on Chinese supplies and strengthen supply chain resilience.
Australia and New Zealand have signed a maritime agreement to strengthen naval cooperation through training, capabilities, warfighting, and international engagement. The agreement comes amid increasing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
South Pacific Defence Cooperation
Increasing ▲
Indonesia–France Defence Cooperation
Increasing ▲
India Critical Mineral Investment
Mixed ↔
WHAT TO WATCH
Chinese diplomatic responses to regional concerns raised about ballistic missile tests.
Progress on Indian critical minerals investment in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Australia and New Zealand navies’ operationalisation of their cooperation agreement.
EUROPE
The European Defence Agency has indicated gaps in its 2030 readiness plan in air and missile defence, ground combat and naval forces, munitions and drones. The report highlights that while investment has increased, it has not translated into capacity building or increased interoperability between member states.
The EU is proposing to support local industries under the Industrial Accelerator Act to reduce reliance on China, where producers face less stringent regulatory requirements and lower energy prices. The proposal may have wider impacts on countries outside the EU such as Canada and the UK regarding access to the EU market.
Lithuania is planning to strengthen defences around critical infrastructure such as power grids amid increased concerns over Russian hybrid warfare. The decision follows political statements on EU preparedness for Russian threats, particularly on NATO’s eastern flank.
Increased gas prices are leading European utilities towards coal. Disruption of liquefied natural gas shipments in the Middle East has made coal a more profitable alternative, while European efforts to seek alternatives to Russian gas supplies have exacerbated the energy challenge.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
European Defence Readiness Capabilities
Mixed ↔
Eastern Flank Critical Infrastructure Defence
Increasing ▲
European Energy-Supply Pressure
Increasing ▲
WHAT TO WATCH
Shifts in EU defence planning to address identified capability and interoperability gaps.
Increased defence protection of critical infrastructure on NATO’s eastern flank.
European gas storage levels, prices and supply availability.
MIDDLE EAST
80 countries have called for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and condemned Iranian and Houthi attacks in a joint statement read at the United Nations. Continued disruption in Hormuz is increasing diplomatic pressure to restore freedom of navigation and trade and energy supplies.
The MECCA partners’ military chiefs will meet to discuss support for Saudi Arabia after recent Houthi attacks. The meeting could increase the operationalisation of the defence pact while also increasing pressure on Iran and its allies.
Ongoing conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz risk delaying liquefied natural gas expansion in Qatar due to start production in 2027. Qatar’s LNG capacity was reduced by 17% after earlier attacks on Ras Laffan, alongside attacks on two LNG trains which could take years to repair. Regional conflict is continuing to cause severe energy disruption.
STRATEGIC INDICATOR
International Pressure on Iran to Open the Strait of Hormuz
Increasing ▲
MECCA Agreement Operationalisation
Mixed ↔
LNG Production and Supplies
Decreasing ▼
WHAT TO WATCH
Iranian diplomatic responses to the joint statement at the UN.
Diplomatic and military responses by MECCA partners.
LNG export and production volumes.