GL IN BRIEF | 16 OCTOBER
KEY JUDGEMENTS
Security cooperation and regional threats: Security tensions in Africa, Europe and the Middle East expose vulnerabilities in existing security arrangements and challenge alliance groupings. Despite challenges, states continue to rely on external security partners and mechanisms for regional security.
Economic security and diversification: The U.S. and EU continue to seek greater access to critical minerals to strengthen supply chains, while African states are also seeking to improve supporting mining infrastructure and to leverage critical minerals in negotiations. U.S. trade policy is causing tensions and ongoing diversification efforts by states.
Energy security: Energy exporters and maritime logistics companies continue to adapt and demonstrate resilience amid ongoing Middle East disruption. While these efforts allow for the continuation of energy transport, export routes remain exposed to projectile attacks.
AFRICA
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea continue as Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of an invasion into Tigray, which Eritrea denies. The tensions risks wider interstate escalation, which may be exacerbated by Ethiopia’s concerns about access to the Red Sea.
Zambia seeks to strengthen its critical mineral sector through negotiations with the U.S. Foreign investment will also strengthen electricity connections for mining between Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, potentially saving USD 1 billion annually. Both developments demonstrate the relationship between mineral access and energy security.
Dangote’s USD 1.6 billion refinery stock market debut to attract foreign investment has been constrained by fragmented capital markets and regulations, highlighting the wider challenge for African industrial development.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
Ethiopia–Eritrea Escalation Risk
▲ Increasing
Zambia Strengthening Critical Mineral Sector
▲ Increasing
Dangote Initial Public Offering
↔ Mixed
WHAT TO WATCH
UN Security Council response to Eritrea’s request for deterrent measures against Ethiopia, alongside escalation between both sides.
Progress in Zambia–U.S. negotiations on a critical minerals agreement and statements by the U.S. on the decoupling with associated health funding.
Stock market data indicating foreign investment in the Dangote refinery.
AMERICAS
U.S.–Mexico tariff discussions have halted after opposition from the U.S. Commerce Secretary over disagreements on American levies on vehicles and metals. Tariffs could impact North American manufacturing and efforts to strengthen regional supply chains.
Canada's diversification continues with a trade agreement with India due to be concluded at the end of the year, while also strengthening economic cooperation with the EU. The developments reflect Canadian attempts to reduce exposure to U.S. trade measures.
Swiss-based commodity trading company Mercuria has sourced and delivered 12,000 tonnes of copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo as part of U.S. efforts on stockpiling critical minerals. Project Vault highlights U.S. steps towards strengthening industrial supply chains.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
U.S.–Mexico Trade Relations
▼ Decreasing
Canada’s Diversification Strategy
▲ Increasing
U.S. Project Vault Critical Minerals Strategy
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
Progress on U.S.–Mexico trade negotiations, particularly in the metals sector and automotive industries.
Canada–India signing a trade agreement alongside further Canadian efforts to diversify economic and security partnerships.
Further U.S. efforts to stockpile critical minerals as part of Project Vault, indicating progress towards reduced dependence on foreign suppliers and strengthening supply chains.
ASIA PACIFIC
China–Laos increase air force cooperation with a joint airfield in Ban Keun. The airfield is capable of accommodating military aircraft, with the location of strategic importance providing access to disputed areas of the South China Sea.
Australia’s Pacific investment will see autonomous maritime surveillance vessels provided to Fiji to monitor transnational crime and strengthen maritime security. Australia continues to deepen security cooperation across the Pacific and demonstrates how autonomous systems are becoming part of regional security.
China is proposing to protect its technology sector by adding 40 technologies, including AI, biotechnology and solar technology to its export-control list. The proposed controls could give China greater oversight of strategically important technology, with export restrictions increasingly being used by China, such as with critical minerals.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
China–Laos Air Force Cooperation
▲ Increasing
Australia’s Pacific Operationalisation
▲ Increasing
Chinese Export Restrictions
► Stable
WHAT TO WATCH
Indications of China–Laos joint military air force exercises, drills, or operations.
Deployment and operational use of Australian-provided autonomous surveillance vessels and diplomatic responses from regional competitors.
Progress on China’s proposed technology export restrictions and potential impacts on supply chains alongside diplomatic responses towards restrictions.
EUROPE
Drone attacks in the Black Sea have led to casualties and greater maritime cooperation between Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. The Black Sea is increasingly becoming a conflict theatre in the Ukraine war while also exposing NATO members' maritime vulnerabilities. This raises questions about the alliance’s ability to provide maritime security outside of territorial waters and in EEZs, where Article 5 does not provide automatic protection.
Ukraine is seeking greater EU financial assistance for air defence systems and energy infrastructure before winter. The requests come amid growing tensions between Washington and Kyiv over attacks on Russian energy infrastructure while also testing EU financial support and ability to provide defence interceptors.
The European Commission has selected 46 projects under the Critical Raw Materials Act, representing €21 billion in planned investment. The announcement comes amid increasing pressure from the critical minerals industry to fast-track projects and efforts to strengthen industrial supply chains while reducing dependence on China.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
Black Sea Maritime Security
▼ Decreasing
Ukraine’s Demand on Security Partners
▲ Increasing
European Critical Mineral Diversification
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
NATO announcements and resources to strengthen Black Sea maritime security.
EU response to Ukraine’s request for financial and air defence systems alongside U.S. statements towards Ukraine.
Progress on the EU’s 46 critical minerals projects in sectors that will reduce foreign dependence and strengthen supply chains.
MIDDLE EAST
The Houthis continue to escalate with missile and drone attacks on the presidential palace in Aden, which the Houthis claimed was targeting a Saudi military operations headquarters. The attacks demonstrate the Houthis’ operational resilience under a counteroffensive, and the rebel group has yet to be deterred by Saudi air power or the MECCA agreement.
Saudi Arabia plans to increase pipeline oil export capacity to up to 10 million barrels per day, including converting a domestic gas pipeline to carry crude. Saudi Arabia is continuing to seek alternative export routes, demonstrating the ability to adapt amid ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Chokepoint disruption continues to impact marine fuel prices with a reported 70% increase since the start of the conflict in February. Wider impacts are extending beyond oil exports into maritime logistics with changes in commercial shipping patterns and bunkering locations.
STRATEGIC INDICATORS
Houthi Attacks Against Saudi Arabia
▲ Increasing
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Route Resilience
▲ Increasing
Chokepoint Fuel Price Pressure on Commercial Shipping
▲ Increasing
WHAT TO WATCH
Houthi targeting of Saudi infrastructure and a potential Saudi response.
Oil export volumes of Saudi Arabia’s pipelines.
Maritime fuel prices and commercial behaviour in response to ongoing disruption.